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Welcome vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 30 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 86-74
16-26 24-15 24-17 22-16
Position#12
Record2-16
FormLLLLW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game98.5
Welcome 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#3
Record12-5
FormLWWWW
Points / game94.8
Allowed / game88.2
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Gimnasio Óscar Magurno
Other2025-26
Meetings · Welcome v Aguada
30 Jan 2026
WELC86
AGUA74
06 Jan 2025
WELC74
AGUA104
16 Nov 2018
WELC90
AGUA97
12 Mar 2018
WELC83
AGUA85
27 Oct 2017
WELC96
AGUA80
05 Dec 2016
WELC0
AGUA20
10 Feb 2016
WELC86
AGUA89
07 Nov 2012
WELC63
AGUA72
16 Dec 2011
WELC76
AGUA66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Welcome winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

WelcomeUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWelcome
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
L
73-83
73
83
-10
55avg 72
H15/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
L
86-98
86
98
-12
76avg 72
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
63-102
63
102
-39
36avg 72
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
82-103
82
103
-21
75avg 72
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
99-89
99
89
+10
89avg 72
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
75-91
75
91
-16
62avg 72
A09/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
91-120
91
120
-29
88avg 72
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
73-86
73
86
-13
no box
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
74-107
74
107
-33
62avg 72
A20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
95-77
95
77
+18
91avg 72
H26/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-18
14-21
15-29
29-15
17-22
27-25
31-27
11-24
13-28
14-31
22-25
14-18
23-28
27-28
11-22
21-25
20-18
26-26
24-23
29-22
23-29
13-26
17-23
22-13
14-28
29-34
28-25
20-33
20-20
20-38
20-16
13-12
15-27
18-25
24-24
17-31
15-14
25-21
26-17
29-25
176.7Avg total
81.1Scored
95.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)81.598.5180.0-17.011%
Season at home (9)82.693.1175.7-10.622%
Season away (9)80.4103.9184.3-23.40%
Last 10 (10)81.195.6176.7-14.520%
Last 5 (5)81.696.2177.8-14.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)81.998.5180.4-16.523%
vs Similar (4)82.882.8165.5+0.050%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Aguada) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Minas
#5
L
74-77
74
77
-3
64avg 86
H13/12
Champions League Americas
Urunday
#9
W
104-99
104
99
+5
102avg 86
A17/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
98-94
98
94
+4
95avg 86
H21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
72-89
72
89
-17
59avg 86
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
95-87
95
87
+8
87avg 86
H11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
75-95
75
95
-20
no box
A16/01
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
W
88-84
88
84
+4
no box
A17/01
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#11
W
109-86
109
86
+23
120avg 86
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
90-76
90
76
+14
90avg 86
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
91-80
91
80
+11
87avg 86
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-24
19-16
20-14
16-23
27-26
30-23
28-28
19-22
28-24
25-23
20-14
25-33
20-32
15-17
17-12
20-28
29-23
26-25
23-23
17-16
21-24
15-28
19-21
20-22
25-21
21-13
23-29
19-21
28-19
28-25
28-21
25-21
21-27
18-17
27-18
24-14
25-20
21-21
20-19
25-20
176.3Avg total
89.6Scored
86.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)94.888.2183.0+6.571%
Season at home (8)100.686.5187.1+14.1100%
Season away (9)89.689.8179.3-0.244%
Last 10 (10)89.686.7176.3+2.970%
Last 5 (5)90.684.2174.8+6.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)83.986.9170.9-3.040%
vs Similar (5)99.897.0196.8+2.880%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)94.983.1178.0+11.880%
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -5.7-5.7Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -6.2-6.2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -1.0-1.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -5.7-5.7Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -6.2-6.2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -1.0-1.0
WelcomeAguada
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
WelcomeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Goes
#10
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H15/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H05/12
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
27-59
27
59
-32
H09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A11/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H19/12
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
36-55
36
55
-19
A09/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
L
43-62
43
62
-19
A13/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
L
40-58
40
58
-18
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
33-52
33
52
-19
A20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H26/01
Liga Uruguaya
89.5Avg total
38.8Scored
50.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.650.491.9-8.823%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.747.588.2-6.829%-
Last 30 away (16)42.352.995.2-10.619%-
Last 10 (10)38.850.789.5-11.920%-
Last 5 (5)38.452.490.8-14.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)41.251.292.4-10.119%-
vs Similar (4)44.244.889.0-0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Aguada) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minas
#5
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H13/12
Champions League Americas
Urunday
#9
W
57-49
57
49
+8
A17/12
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#2
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
55-48
55
48
+7
H11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
36-52
36
52
-16
A16/01
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A17/01
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#11
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
90.9Avg total
46.1Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.144.790.8+1.557%-
Last 30 at home (14)48.344.292.5+4.164%-
Last 30 away (16)44.245.189.3-0.850%-
Last 10 (10)46.144.890.9+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)44.643.087.6+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)43.644.688.2-1.047%-
vs Similar (5)50.845.696.4+5.280%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)47.644.391.9+3.360%-
This opponent (Welcome) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Welcometheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Welcome: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.820.9
53.9%
53.3%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.09.3
32.1%
33.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws16.511.9
72.1%
70.9%11.9
They take 67.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.120.6
55.5%
53.3%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.810.3
38.4%
33.3%30.9
🏀 Free throws19.915.9
79.9%
70.9%15.9
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Welcome
WLLLLWLLLL
Aguada
WWWWLWLWWL
#12
League position
#3
-18.7
Net rating
+5.4
95.3
Offensive rating
107.9
114.0
Defensive rating
102.5
51.4%
Effective FG%
56.4%
57.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.1%
16.4%
Turnover %
17.9%
21.5%
Off. rebound %
27.4%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.31
32.1%
3-point %
38.4%
63.6%
Assist %
63.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence95.3 · 107.9Defence114.0 · 102.5Shooting51.4% · 56.4%3-point %32.1% · 38.4%Ball care16.4% · 17.9%Off. rebounds21.5% · 27.4%Free throws0.24 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)20% · 70%
■ Welcome   ■ Aguada
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Welcome wins
8
Aguada wins
DateGameScore
10/11/25Aguada v Welcome112-82
04/03/25Aguada v Welcome101-72
06/01/25Welcome v Aguada74-104
28/01/19Aguada v Welcome81-67
16/11/18Welcome v Aguada90-97
12/03/18Welcome v Aguada83-85
17/01/18Aguada v Welcome80-77
28/10/17Welcome v Aguada96-80
05/12/16Welcome v Aguada0-20
16/02/16Aguada v Welcome68-72
Welcomelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/26HHebraica y Macabi95-77
20/01/26APenarol74-107
17/01/26HCordon73-86
13/01/26ANacional91-120
09/01/26AUnion Atletica75-91
19/12/25HMalvin99-89
11/12/25ADefensor82-103
09/12/25HUrunday63-102
05/12/25HBigua86-98
15/11/25HGoes73-83
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/26HPenarol91-80
25/01/26HDefensor90-76
22/01/26ACordon109-86
17/01/26ABoca Juniors88-84
16/01/26AMinas75-95
11/01/26HBigua95-87
08/01/26AMalvin72-89
21/12/25HNacional98-94
17/12/25AUrunday104-99
13/12/25HMinas74-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Welcome
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW11%
HomeLLWLW22%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %11%22%0%
Points / game81.582.680.4
Allowed / game98.593.1103.9
Point differential-17.0-10.6-23.4
Avg total180.0175.7184.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%22%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW71%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %71%100%44%
Points / game94.8100.689.6
Allowed / game88.286.589.8
Point differential+6.5+14.1-0.2
Avg total183.0187.1179.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%75%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (1)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol1815383%86.471.9+14.5
2 Nacional1712571%93.683.8+9.8
3 Aguada1712571%94.888.2+6.5
4 Malvin1812667%83.282.0+1.2
5 Hebraica y Macabi1811761%83.081.0+2.0
6 Bigua1910953%87.889.5-1.6
7 Union Atletica189950%83.782.7+1.0
8 Defensor189950%86.185.8+0.3
9 Urunday1881044%90.486.4+3.9
10 Goes1851328%82.891.0-8.2
11 Cordon1931616%81.592.3-10.8
12 Welcome1821611%81.598.5-17.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Welcome1624242286
Aguada2615171674
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