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Adelaide Lightning W vs Canberra Capitals W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 68-67
17-15 22-13 19-19 10-20
Position#6
Record2-6
FormWLLWL
Points / game70.4
Allowed / game70.5
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Canberra Capitals W
Australia
Position#4
Record2-7
FormWWLLL
Points / game77.9
Allowed / game89.4
AustraliaNBL WRound 7· Adelaide Arena
Women2024-25
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W
20 Jan 2026
ADEL61
CANB67
01 Nov 2025
ADEL73
CANB65
03 Jan 2025
ADEL77
CANB88
15 Dec 2024
ADEL68
CANB67
28 Jan 2024
ADEL84
CANB67
30 Nov 2022
ADEL90
CANB80
17 Mar 2022
ADEL81
CANB50
30 Jan 2022
ADEL67
CANB80
11 Nov 2020
ADEL85
CANB73
27 Dec 2019
ADEL78
CANB68
13 Feb 2019
ADEL74
CANB73
14 Dec 2018
ADEL93
CANB73
02 Dec 2018
ADEL91
CANB83
25 Oct 2017
ADEL80
CANB77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Canberra Capitals W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#3
W
70-61
70
61
+9
70avg 63
H17/02
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
74-60
74
60
+14
72avg 63
A24/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
70-84
70
84
-14
56avg 63
A02/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
78-92
78
92
-14
57avg 63
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
66-72 OT
66
72
-6
56avg 63
A16/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
78-54
78
54
+24
72avg 63
H20/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
47-53
47
53
-6
41avg 63
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
68-69
68
69
-1
66avg 63
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
97-71
97
71
+26
96avg 63
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
59-69
59
69
-10
54avg 63
A08/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-15
22-18
15-15
13-13
17-13
11-16
21-12
25-19
23-28
22-20
18-17
7-19
28-25
18-28
18-18
14-21
18-13
17-19
22-15
7-17
20-11
18-12
16-17
24-14
18-9
22-11
2-16
5-17
19-22
21-20
21-8
7-19
28-17
18-17
23-11
28-26
19-14
7-18
13-16
20-21
139.2Avg total
70.7Scored
68.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)70.470.5140.9-0.125%
Season at home (3)74.771.7146.3+3.033%
Season away (5)67.869.8137.6-2.020%
Last 10 (10)70.768.5139.2+2.240%
Last 5 (5)69.863.2133.0+6.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)68.873.5142.2-4.729%
vs Similar ◀ (8)78.277.5155.8+0.838%
vs Weaker (5)72.874.6147.4-1.840%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#3
L
74-75
74
75
-1
72avg 65
H24/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
85-102
85
102
-17
72avg 65
A03/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
76-99
76
99
-23
61avg 65
H08/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
90-92
90
92
-2
77avg 65
H14/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
77-98
77
98
-21
46avg 65
A17/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
81-80
81
80
+1
72avg 65
H21/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
73-60
73
60
+13
63avg 65
A23/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
78-98
78
98
-20
67avg 65
A30/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
78-89
78
89
-11
70avg 65
H04/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
63-87
63
87
-24
47avg 65
A12/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-26
26-18
7-16
19-15
21-35
23-24
18-22
23-21
22-28
19-25
14-25
21-21
25-27
26-20
21-21
18-24
22-24
17-23
19-26
19-25
12-20
30-28
23-15
16-17
21-22
16-15
21-14
15-9
22-35
18-25
12-17
26-21
22-20
19-21
15-20
22-28
10-20
20-37
14-20
19-10
165.5Avg total
77.5Scored
88.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)77.989.4167.3-11.622%
Season at home (4)81.290.0171.2-8.825%
Season away (5)75.289.0164.2-13.820%
Last 10 (10)77.588.0165.5-10.520%
Last 5 (5)74.682.8157.4-8.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)75.885.4161.2-9.519%
vs Similar ◀ (3)80.096.3176.3-16.30%
vs Weaker (1)73.060.0133.0+13.0100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +4.3+4.3Q1: -5.8-5.8Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: +0.7+0.7
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +4.3+4.3Q1: -5.8-5.8Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: +0.7+0.7
Adelaide Lightning WCanberra Capitals W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#3
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H17/02
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A24/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A02/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A16/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H20/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
W
40-20
40
20
+20
A23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H29/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A06/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
26-32
26
32
-6
A08/12
NBL W
73.2Avg total
38.6Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.236.974.0+0.343%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.336.573.8+0.843%-
Last 30 away (16)37.137.274.2-0.144%-
Last 10 (10)38.634.673.2+4.050%-
Last 5 (5)38.030.268.2+7.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.737.574.2-0.835%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)37.534.672.1+2.962%-
vs Weaker (5)38.238.276.4+0.040%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#3
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H24/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#5
L
44-59
44
59
-15
A03/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H08/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H14/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A17/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#3
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H21/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A23/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
40-60
40
60
-20
A30/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H04/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
30-57
30
57
-27
A12/12
NBL W
90.6Avg total
41.3Scored
49.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.245.284.3-6.023%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.044.585.5-3.536%-
Last 30 away (16)37.645.883.3-8.212%-
Last 10 (10)41.349.390.6-8.020%-
Last 5 (5)38.048.686.6-10.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)39.045.084.0-6.027%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)41.349.090.3-7.70%-
vs Weaker (1)37.037.074.0+0.00%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 69.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.018.9
43.0%
46.9%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.37.4
33.2%
32.2%22.2
🏀 Free throws13.59.7
71.9%
75.1%9.7
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 76.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.821.3
45.5%
46.9%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.27.0
27.8%
32.2%21.0
🏀 Free throws16.913.3
78.7%
75.1%13.3
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LWLLWLLLWW
Canberra Capitals W
LLLWWLLLLL
#6
League position
#4
+2.4
Net rating
-12.2
88.6
Offensive rating
94.4
86.2
Defensive rating
106.6
45.2%
Effective FG%
44.2%
40.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.0%
21.4%
Turnover %
19.0%
26.1%
Off. rebound %
29.2%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.23
33.2%
3-point %
27.8%
67.3%
Assist %
58.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence88.6 · 94.4Defence86.2 · 106.6Shooting45.2% · 44.2%3-point %33.2% · 27.8%Ball care21.4% · 19.0%Off. rebounds26.1% · 29.2%Free throws0.20 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Canberra Capitals W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
4
Canberra Capitals W wins
DateGameScore
28/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W84-67
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
02/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W97-90 OT
30/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W90-80
17/03/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W81-50
30/01/22Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W67-80
19/12/21Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W62-88
04/12/20Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W85-65
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/12/24AGeelong United W59-69
06/12/24ASouthside W97-71
29/11/24HTownsville W68-69
23/11/24ATownsville W47-53
20/11/24HSydney W78-54
16/11/24AGeelong United W66-72 OT
09/11/24HPerth Lynx W78-92
02/11/24ABendigo W70-84
24/02/24ASouthside W74-60
17/02/24HGeelong United W70-61
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/12/24APerth Lynx W63-87
04/12/24HSouthside W78-89
30/11/24ABendigo W78-98
23/11/24AGeelong United W73-60
21/11/24HTownsville W81-80
17/11/24ASouthside W77-98
14/11/24HPerth Lynx W90-92
08/11/24HBendigo W76-99
03/11/24ASydney W85-102
24/02/24HGeelong United W74-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL25%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLLLWL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games835
Win %25%33%20%
Points / game70.474.767.8
Allowed / game70.571.769.8
Point differential-0.1+3.0-2.0
Avg total140.9146.3137.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %12%0%20%
Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL22%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %22%25%20%
Points / game77.981.275.2
Allowed / game89.490.089.0
Point differential-11.6-8.8-13.8
Avg total167.3171.2164.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W990100%87.474.0+13.4
2 Perth Lynx W107370%86.579.2+7.3
3 Sydney W84450%79.678.0+1.6
4 Townsville W84450%75.876.2-0.5
5 Geelong United W94544%71.680.1-8.6
6 Southside W93633%82.985.2-2.3
7 Adelaide Lightning W82625%70.470.5-0.1
8 Canberra Capitals W92722%77.989.4-11.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W1722191068
Canberra Capitals W1513192067
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