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Adelaide vs South East Melbourne Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 02 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 08:30
Scheduled
Position#5
Record7-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game92.5
Adelaide
Australia
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
5.4/10
Around normal
South East Melbourne
Australia
Position#10
Record4-9
FormWLLLL
Points / game97.9
Allowed / game98.1
AustraliaNBLRound 15· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide v South East Melbourne
02 Jan 2027
ADEL v SOUT
upcoming
02 Dec 2026
ADEL v SOUT
upcoming
17 Mar 2026
ADEL108
SOUT96
10 Mar 2026
ADEL104
SOUT97
31 Jan 2026
ADEL77
SOUT97
18 Jan 2026
ADEL89
SOUT108
16 Oct 2025
ADEL88
SOUT71
03 Oct 2024
ADEL93
SOUT83
17 Nov 2023
ADEL96
SOUT93
19 Oct 2023
ADEL85
SOUT102
24 Dec 2022
ADEL94
SOUT88
27 Mar 2022
ADEL100
SOUT92
04 Mar 2022
ADEL76
SOUT83
23 Feb 2021
ADEL99
SOUT94
20 Jan 2021
ADEL83
SOUT89
17 Jan 2021
ADEL116
SOUT108
02 Feb 2020
ADEL100
SOUT93
13 Dec 2019
ADEL113
SOUT111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
South East Melbourne win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
92-114
92
114
-22
87avg 86
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
72-88
72
88
-16
61avg 86
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
91-96
91
96
-5
79avg 86
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
84-78
84
78
+6
76avg 86
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 86
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
94-108
94
108
-14
86avg 86
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
106avg 86
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
89-96
89
96
-7
77avg 86
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
106-78
106
78
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
101-93
101
93
+8
no box
H12/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
21-31
17-25
21-20
32-20
18-18
23-26
20-12
23-22
14-22
26-17
31-23
23-26
25-42
18-30
29-14
22-22
28-24
28-20
18-28
34-29
17-30
26-20
23-26
23-20
22-21
27-16
36-23
21-18
27-10
32-25
21-27
21-31
187.1Avg total
93.1Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)92.992.5185.4+0.554%
Season at home (6)90.386.7177.0+3.750%
Season away (7)95.197.4192.6-2.357%
Last 10 (10)93.194.0187.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)99.695.2194.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)92.997.9190.7-5.050%
vs Similar ◀ (10)93.795.5189.2-1.850%
vs Weaker (6)96.088.5184.5+7.550%
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South East MelbourneAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMelbourne
Date
Competition
Perth
#6
L
88-92
88
92
-4
81avg 91
A02/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
113-96
113
96
+17
106avg 91
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
99-104
99
104
-5
84avg 91
H10/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
105-115
105
115
-10
92avg 91
A15/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
115-83
115
83
+32
108avg 91
H17/10
NBL
Adelaide
#5
W
108-94
108
94
+14
103avg 91
H24/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
89-98
89
98
-9
73avg 91
H01/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
99-110
99
110
-11
no box
A08/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
110-120
110
120
-10
no box
H11/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
95-102
95
102
-7
no box
A14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-26
22-22
21-22
21-22
23-23
36-18
26-32
28-23
30-17
23-28
21-29
25-30
24-30
31-26
29-34
21-25
27-35
35-19
27-9
26-20
42-25
30-18
14-29
22-22
18-27
21-30
25-19
25-22
38-28
13-26
19-29
29-27
23-28
31-43
27-24
29-25
22-30
17-34
29-23
27-15
203.5Avg total
102.1Scored
101.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)97.998.1196.0-0.231%
Season at home (7)99.397.3196.6+2.043%
Season away (6)96.399.0195.3-2.717%
Last 10 (10)102.1101.4203.5+0.730%
Last 5 (5)100.2104.8205.0-4.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)93.2103.4196.6-10.112%
vs Similar ◀ (8)100.493.1193.5+7.250%
vs Weaker (14)109.8100.3210.1+9.571%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
AdelaideSouth East Melbourne
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
43-72
43
72
-29
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
43-50
43
50
-7
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H12/11
NBL
93.6Avg total
44.6Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.595.6-1.453%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.046.494.4+1.654%-
Last 30 away (17)46.450.196.5-3.853%-
Last 10 (10)44.649.093.6-4.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.047.697.6+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)48.949.998.9-1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)44.547.992.4-3.450%-
vs Weaker (6)47.046.293.2+0.867%-
This opponent (South East Melbourne) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South East MelbourneLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#6
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A02/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
59-41
59
41
+18
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
53-45
53
45
+8
H10/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A15/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H17/10
NBL
Adelaide
#5
W
72-43
72
43
+29
H24/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
39-57
39
57
-18
H01/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
51-54
51
54
-3
A08/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
54-71
54
71
-17
H11/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
39-64
39
64
-25
A14/11
NBL
106.3Avg total
53.0Scored
53.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.351.3103.6+1.043%-
Last 30 at home (15)55.452.3107.7+3.153%-
Last 30 away (15)49.250.399.5-1.133%-
Last 10 (10)53.053.3106.3-0.340%-
Last 5 (5)51.057.8108.8-6.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)47.852.2100.0-4.525%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)54.548.5103.0+6.062%-
vs Weaker (14)53.652.4106.0+1.343%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 90.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.9
56.3%
56.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.4
30.3%
34.2%28.2
🏀 Free throws23.116.4
71.0%
74.0%16.4
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
South East Melbournetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

South East Melbourne: 96.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.422.6
55.9%
56.4%45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.511.6
30.9%
34.2%34.8
🏀 Free throws22.016.7
75.9%
74.0%16.7
They take 77.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
WWLWLWWLLL
South East Melbourne
LLLLWWLLWL
#5
League position
#10
-3.3
Net rating
+4.8
99.1
Offensive rating
100.3
102.4
Defensive rating
95.6
51.6%
Effective FG%
51.3%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.8%
11.2%
Turnover %
11.7%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.28
30.3%
3-point %
30.9%
67.5%
Assist %
55.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 100.3Defence102.4 · 95.6Shooting51.6% · 51.3%3-point %30.3% · 30.9%Ball care11.2% · 11.7%Free throws0.32 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Adelaide   ■ South East Melbourne
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Adelaide wins
6
South East Melbourne wins
DateGameScore
24/10/26South East Melbourne v Adelaide108-94
17/03/26Adelaide v South East Melbourne108-96
14/03/26South East Melbourne v Adelaide101-92
10/03/26Adelaide v South East Melbourne104-97
31/01/26Adelaide v South East Melbourne77-97
18/01/26Adelaide v South East Melbourne89-108
22/11/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide81-94
16/10/25Adelaide v South East Melbourne88-71
16/02/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide85-75
02/02/25South East Melbourne v Adelaide105-99
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMelbourne United101-93
07/11/26HIllawarra Hawks106-78
01/11/26HBrisbane Bullets89-96
30/10/26ANew Zealand Breakers108-101
24/10/26ASouth East Melbourne94-108
16/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers94-88
11/10/26ASydney84-78
07/10/26HMelbourne United91-96
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114
South East Melbournelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AMelbourne United95-102
11/11/26HIllawarra Hawks110-120
08/11/26ASydney99-110
01/11/26HTasmania JackJumpers89-98
24/10/26HAdelaide108-94
17/10/26HCairns Taipans115-83
15/10/26ABrisbane Bullets105-115
10/10/26HMelbourne United99-104
04/10/26HIllawarra Hawks113-96
02/10/26APerth88-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeLLLWW50%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game92.990.395.1
Allowed / game92.586.797.4
Point differential+0.5+3.7-2.3
Avg total185.4177.0192.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
South East Melbourne
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL31%
HomeLWWLL43%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %31%43%17%
Points / game97.999.396.3
Allowed / game98.197.399.0
Point differential-0.2+2.0-2.7
Avg total196.0196.6195.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%43%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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