PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Adelaide vs Sydney Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 79-103
19-29 22-25 23-25 15-24
Position#3
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game98.3
Allowed / game82.7
Adelaide
Australia
vs
Sydney 🏆
Australia
Position#1
Record1-2
FormLLLWL
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game86.3
AustraliaNBLRound 4· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide v Sydney
30 Jan 2027
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
13 Dec 2026
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
ADEL92
SYDN91
27 Mar 2026
ADEL91
SYDN89
02 Jan 2026
ADEL85
SYDN79
11 Oct 2025
ADEL79
SYDN103
11 Oct 2024
ADEL89
SYDN79
22 Sep 2024
ADEL94
SYDN102
02 Feb 2024
ADEL85
SYDN78
11 Jan 2024
ADEL95
SYDN82
03 Feb 2023
ADEL115
SYDN108
09 Apr 2022
ADEL77
SYDN84
27 Feb 2022
ADEL90
SYDN93
06 Feb 2021
ADEL75
SYDN94
30 Jan 2021
ADEL85
SYDN80
02 Nov 2019
ADEL96
SYDN98
10 Nov 2018
ADEL81
SYDN93
19 Oct 2018
ADEL106
SYDN101
18 Nov 2017
ADEL108
SYDN93
21 Oct 2017
ADEL114
SYDN84
21 Jan 2017
ADEL87
SYDN73
16 Dec 2016
ADEL82
SYDN80
20 Jan 2016
ADEL96
SYDN89
07 Nov 2015
ADEL99
SYDN98
06 Feb 2015
ADEL97
SYDN78
30 Nov 2014
ADEL83
SYDN90
12 Jan 2014
ADEL89
SYDN102
03 Nov 2013
ADEL97
SYDN84
13 Jan 2013
ADEL82
SYDN64
02 Dec 2012
ADEL85
SYDN88
12 Nov 2011
ADEL104
SYDN113
21 Oct 2011
ADEL71
SYDN94
17 Dec 2010
ADEL81
SYDN77
06 Nov 2010
ADEL87
SYDN75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Sydney
#4
W
105-96
105
96
+9
94avg 85
A24/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
94-78
94
78
+16
92avg 85
H26/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
89-92
89
92
-3
82avg 85
H31/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
99-105
99
105
-6
88avg 85
A02/02
NBL
Perth
#3
L
104-112
104
112
-8
91avg 85
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
95-88
95
88
+7
88avg 85
A13/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
75-85
75
85
-10
63avg 85
A16/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
87-80
87
80
+7
83avg 85
H28/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
110-79
110
79
+31
104avg 85
A02/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
98-89
98
89
+9
96avg 85
H09/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-23
18-32
26-18
27-23
27-15
30-20
22-23
15-20
21-22
24-20
18-26
26-24
23-30
20-31
34-18
22-26
27-20
29-29
22-32
26-31
23-22
28-19
18-30
26-17
16-15
29-11
15-28
15-31
27-23
21-24
29-20
10-13
36-23
22-15
27-22
25-19
21-20
30-22
25-30
22-17
186.0Avg total
95.6Scored
90.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)98.382.7181.0+15.7100%
Season at home (2)92.584.5177.0+8.0100%
Season away (1)110.079.0189.0+31.0100%
Last 10 (10)95.690.4186.0+5.260%
Last 5 (5)93.084.2177.2+8.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)95.098.4193.4-3.444%
vs Similar (10)90.092.9182.9-2.940%
vs Weaker (4)98.881.8180.5+17.0100%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
91-87
91
87
+4
80avg 82
H12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
88-77
88
77
+11
73avg 82
H19/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
103-92
103
92
+11
103avg 82
A22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
96-105
96
105
-9
82avg 82
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#3
L
97-104
97
104
-7
97avg 82
H02/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
75-95
75
95
-20
62avg 82
A07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
88-95
88
95
-7
82avg 82
H13/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
74-77
74
77
-3
55avg 82
H28/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
97-75
97
75
+22
88avg 82
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
93-107
93
107
-14
77avg 82
H08/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-19
22-19
25-24
27-25
16-15
22-19
18-21
32-22
26-22
36-23
17-23
24-24
23-34
32-18
18-26
23-27
21-32
27-24
26-29
23-19
24-29
15-21
22-15
14-30
22-23
19-28
30-18
17-26
18-22
27-18
13-21
16-16
22-15
17-19
31-18
27-23
25-29
27-21
19-31
22-26
181.6Avg total
90.2Scored
91.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)88.086.3174.3+1.733%
Season at home (3)88.086.3174.3+1.733%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)90.291.4181.6-1.240%
Last 5 (5)85.489.8175.2-4.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)87.397.3184.7-10.00%
vs Similar (8)92.191.4183.5+0.838%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)89.784.8174.5+4.963%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.2+4.2Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -1.3-1.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.2+4.2Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -1.3-1.3
AdelaideSydney
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#4
L
52-55
52
55
-3
A24/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
57-35
57
35
+22
H26/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H31/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
43-61
43
61
-18
A02/02
NBL
Perth
#3
W
56-49
56
49
+7
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
51-41
51
41
+10
A13/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
45-26
45
26
+19
A16/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
48-47
48
47
+1
H28/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
58-38
58
38
+20
A02/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H09/10
NBL
94.2Avg total
50.6Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.546.796.2+2.857%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.545.394.7+4.267%-
Last 30 away (15)49.548.197.6+1.547%-
Last 10 (10)50.643.694.2+7.080%-
Last 5 (5)50.638.889.4+11.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)50.348.298.6+2.156%-
vs Similar (10)47.144.791.8+2.450%-
vs Weaker (4)52.245.297.5+7.075%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H19/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
62-45
62
45
+17
A22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#3
L
48-56
48
56
-8
H02/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H13/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H28/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H08/10
NBL
90.8Avg total
45.8Scored
45.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.546.591.1-2.040%-
Last 30 at home (17)45.047.292.2-2.247%-
Last 30 away (13)43.945.689.5-1.731%-
Last 10 (10)45.845.090.8+0.870%-
Last 5 (5)43.245.088.2-1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)44.050.794.7-6.70%-
vs Similar (8)45.850.896.5-5.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)44.144.188.2+0.053%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 94.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.925.4
62.1%
54.6%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.08.6
34.4%
33.3%25.8
🏀 Free throws22.118.0
81.4%
74.8%18.0
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 89.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.722.6
61.6%
54.6%45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.49.0
31.7%
33.3%27.0
🏀 Free throws23.517.6
74.9%
74.8%17.6
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
WWWLWLLLWW
Sydney
LWLLLLLWWW
#3
League position
#1
+6.2
Net rating
-1.1
123.0
Offensive rating
121.3
116.7
Defensive rating
122.4
58.1%
Effective FG%
55.5%
55.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
13.9%
Turnover %
12.7%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
28.9%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.36
34.4%
3-point %
31.7%
53.2%
Assist %
52.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence123.0 · 121.3Defence116.7 · 122.4Shooting58.1% · 55.5%3-point %34.4% · 31.7%Ball care13.9% · 12.7%Off. rebounds24.9% · 28.9%Free throws0.34 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Adelaide   ■ Sydney
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Adelaide wins
3
Sydney wins
DateGameScore
13/02/25Sydney v Adelaide88-95
24/01/25Sydney v Adelaide96-105
30/12/24Sydney v Adelaide96-111
11/10/24Adelaide v Sydney89-79
22/09/24Adelaide v Sydney94-102
02/02/24Adelaide v Sydney85-78
11/01/24Adelaide v Sydney95-82
08/10/23Sydney v Adelaide109-100
03/02/23Adelaide v Sydney115-108
04/12/22Sydney v Adelaide97-78
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/10/25HTasmania JackJumpers98-89
02/10/25ACairns Taipans110-79
28/09/25HBrisbane Bullets87-80
16/02/25ASouth East Melbourne75-85
13/02/25ASydney95-88
07/02/25APerth104-112
02/02/25ASouth East Melbourne99-105
31/01/25HBrisbane Bullets89-92
26/01/25HNew Zealand Breakers94-78
24/01/25ASydney105-96
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/10/25HMelbourne United93-107
04/10/25HNew Zealand Breakers97-75
28/09/25HCairns Taipans74-77
13/02/25HAdelaide88-95
07/02/25AIllawarra Hawks75-95
02/02/25HPerth97-104
24/01/25HAdelaide96-105
22/01/25ASouth East Melbourne103-92
19/01/25HTasmania JackJumpers88-77
12/01/25HCairns Taipans91-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game98.392.5110.0
Allowed / game82.784.579.0
Point differential+15.7+8.0+31.0
Avg total181.0177.0189.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeLWL33%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %33%33%-
Points / game88.088.0-
Allowed / game86.386.3-
Point differential+1.7+1.7-
Avg total174.3174.3-
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%33%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Melbourne United440100%103.085.5+17.5
2 Adelaide330100%98.382.7+15.7
3 Perth43175%83.278.5+4.8
4 Tasmania JackJumpers53260%84.685.2-0.6
5 South East Melbourne21150%98.590.0+8.5
6 Cairns Taipans52340%78.692.0-13.4
7 Sydney31233%88.086.3+1.7
8 Illawarra Hawks41325%93.597.2-3.8
9 Brisbane Bullets51420%87.493.0-5.6
10 New Zealand Breakers51420%89.498.4-9.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide1922231579
Sydney29252524103
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.