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Avellino vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 10 Mar 2019
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 76-71
15-27 15-26 24-9 22-9
Position#9
Record12-8
FormLLWLL
Points / game80.5
Allowed / game81.5
vs
Position#7
Record12-8
FormLWLWW
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game75.2
ItalyLega ARound 21
Domestic2018-19
Meetings · Avellino v Varese
10 Mar 2019
AVE76
VAR71
12 Nov 2017
AVE65
VAR61
05 Mar 2017
AVE75
VAR82
26 Mar 2016
AVE89
VAR71
11 Jan 2015
AVE67
VAR91
16 Feb 2014
AVE83
VAR63
27 Jan 2013
AVE82
VAR83
02 May 2012
AVE78
VAR77
24 Oct 2010
AVE85
VAR69
07 Mar 2010
AVE76
VAR67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Avellino winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AvellinoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#2
L
57-63
57
63
-6
H16/01
Champions League
Cantu
#8
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A19/01
Lega A
Banvit
#15
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A22/01
Champions League
Cremona
#3
L
62-70
62
70
-8
H27/01
Lega A
Le Mans
#31
L
68-81
68
81
-13
H30/01
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
66-88
66
88
-22
A03/02
Lega A
Ventspils
#32
L
102-106 OT
102
106
-4
A05/02
Champions League
Brescia
#12
W
79-67
79
67
+12
H10/02
Lega A
Brindisi
#2
L
92-95
92
95
-3
H15/02
Italian Cup
Trento
#6
L
79-97
79
97
-18
A03/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-21
16-11
8-18
17-13
13-19
16-18
22-24
22-22
19-27
27-25
17-24
25-20
19-15
15-21
12-20
16-14
23-16
15-19
10-27
20-19
28-27
10-26
18-17
10-18
26-23
24-24
15-15
25-28
18-26
22-15
21-8
18-18
12-28
28-19
40-22
12-26
20-29
21-28
22-18
16-22
161.2Avg total
76.6Scored
84.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)80.581.5162.0-1.060%
Season at home (10)82.378.3160.6+4.070%
Season away (10)78.784.7163.4-6.050%
Last 10 (10)76.684.6161.2-8.010%
Last 5 (5)83.690.6174.2-7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)74.080.7154.7-6.733%
vs Similar ◀ (15)79.983.4163.3-3.553%
vs Weaker (5)86.677.8164.4+8.8100%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#12
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A20/01
Lega A
AEK Larnaca
#27
W
74-59
74
59
+15
A23/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Sassari
#4
W
84-73
84
73
+11
H27/01
Lega A
Sassari
#1
L
69-79
69
79
-10
H30/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Trento
#6
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A02/02
Lega A
Donar Groningen
#16
L
77-80 OT
77
80
-3
H06/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Trieste
#10
W
104-96
104
96
+8
A10/02
Lega A
Cremona
#1
L
73-82
73
82
-9
A14/02
Italian Cup
Reggiana
#14
W
92-80
92
80
+12
H03/03
Lega A
Z-Mobile Prishtina
#26
W
80-77
80
77
+3
A06/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-16
11-25
25-22
20-15
21-22
14-17
19-12
20-8
21-14
25-19
24-22
14-18
15-18
14-20
23-26
17-15
9-16
17-21
24-15
21-22
15-15
20-16
13-25
20-12
27-24
34-26
24-19
19-27
15-19
25-25
12-16
21-22
23-24
19-18
28-16
22-22
25-12
12-20
15-28
28-17
157.5Avg total
79.7Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)79.575.2154.8+4.360%
Season at home (10)83.775.1158.8+8.680%
Season away (10)75.475.4150.8+0.040%
Last 10 (10)79.777.8157.5+1.950%
Last 5 (5)85.283.0168.2+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)79.583.0162.5-3.550%
vs Similar ◀ (8)80.674.6155.2+6.075%
vs Weaker (19)81.772.9154.6+8.863%
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.7-3.7Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: +2.4+2.4
AvellinoVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AvellinoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#2
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H16/01
Champions League
Cantu
#8
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A19/01
Lega A
Banvit
#15
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A22/01
Champions League
Cremona
#3
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H27/01
Lega A
Le Mans
#31
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H30/01
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
38-53
38
53
-15
A03/02
Lega A
Ventspils
#32
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A05/02
Champions League
Brescia
#12
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H10/02
Lega A
Brindisi
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H15/02
Italian Cup
Trento
#6
L
41-57
41
57
-16
A03/03
Lega A
82.5Avg total
38.8Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.442.282.6-1.733%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.441.983.3-0.444%-
Last 30 away (14)39.342.581.8-3.221%-
Last 10 (10)38.843.782.5-4.920%-
Last 5 (5)41.849.090.8-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)38.741.780.3-3.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)40.443.684.0-3.233%-
vs Weaker (5)43.837.881.6+6.040%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#12
L
28-41
28
41
-13
A20/01
Lega A
AEK Larnaca
#27
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A23/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Sassari
#4
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H27/01
Lega A
Sassari
#1
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H30/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Trento
#6
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A02/02
Lega A
Donar Groningen
#16
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H06/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Trieste
#10
W
61-50
61
50
+11
A10/02
Lega A
Cremona
#1
L
40-44
40
44
-4
A14/02
Italian Cup
Reggiana
#14
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H03/03
Lega A
Z-Mobile Prishtina
#26
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A06/03
FIBA Europe Cup
76.6Avg total
37.9Scored
38.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.437.877.2+1.757%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.436.879.2+5.679%-
Last 30 away (16)36.838.675.4-1.838%-
Last 10 (10)37.938.776.6-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)43.039.882.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)34.044.078.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)41.938.580.4+3.475%-
vs Weaker (19)38.936.575.4+2.558%-
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Avellinotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Avellino: 76.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.517.7
47.2%
51.0%35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.08.6
34.4%
35.1%25.8
🏀 Free throws20.015.6
78.0%
72.3%15.6
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 81.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.517.6
45.7%
51.0%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.210.7
37.9%
35.1%32.1
🏀 Free throws19.714.1
71.6%
72.3%14.1
They take 66.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Avellino
LLWLLLLLLL
Varese
WWLWLLLWWL
#9
League position
#7
-1.5
Net rating
+6.3
101.4
Offensive rating
114.7
102.8
Defensive rating
108.4
49.0%
Effective FG%
50.4%
48.8%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
17.3%
Turnover %
14.1%
23.6%
Off. rebound %
35.9%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.4%
3-point %
37.9%
73.4%
Assist %
54.4%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence101.4 · 114.7Defence102.8 · 108.4Shooting49.0% · 50.4%3-point %34.4% · 37.9%Ball care17.3% · 14.1%Off. rebounds23.6% · 35.9%Free throws0.32 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)10% · 50%
■ Avellino   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Avellino wins
3
Varese wins
DateGameScore
11/11/18Varese v Avellino79-83
18/03/18Varese v Avellino82-75
12/11/17Avellino v Varese65-61
05/03/17Avellino v Varese75-82
06/11/16Varese v Avellino77-79 OT
26/03/16Avellino v Varese89-71
07/12/15Varese v Avellino81-93
10/05/15Varese v Avellino66-73
11/01/15Avellino v Varese67-91
16/02/14Avellino v Varese83-63
Avellinolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/03/19ATrento79-97
15/02/19HBrindisi92-95
10/02/19HBrescia79-67
05/02/19AVentspils102-106 OT
03/02/19AVirtus Bologna66-88
30/01/19HLe Mans68-81
27/01/19HCremona62-70
22/01/19ABanvit88-96
19/01/19ACantu73-83
16/01/19HMurcia57-63
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/19AZ-Mobile Prishtina80-77
03/03/19HReggiana92-80
14/02/19ACremona73-82
10/02/19ATrieste104-96
06/02/19HDonar Groningen77-80 OT
02/02/19ATrento71-74
30/01/19HSassari69-79
27/01/19HSassari84-73
23/01/19AAEK Larnaca74-59
20/01/19ABrescia73-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Avellino
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL60%
HomeWWWLW70%
AwayWWLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %60%70%50%
Points / game80.582.378.7
Allowed / game81.578.384.7
Point differential-1.0+4.0-6.0
Avg total162.0160.6163.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%30%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (6)100% (3)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW60%
HomeWWLWW80%
AwayWLLLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %60%80%40%
Points / game79.583.775.4
Allowed / game75.275.175.4
Point differential+4.3+8.6+0.0
Avg total154.8158.8150.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%60%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (2)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano2017385%88.377.8+10.4
2 Venezia2014670%81.572.1+9.3
3 Cremona2013765%83.077.8+5.2
4 Brindisi2113862%82.678.8+3.9
5 Varese2012860%79.575.2+4.3
6 Avellino2012860%80.581.5-1.0
7 Trieste21111052%87.684.1+3.5
8 Virtus Bologna20101050%80.781.8-1.1
9 Trento20101050%78.981.2-2.2
10 Cantu20101050%84.386.8-2.5
11 Sassari2091145%84.081.8+2.2
12 Brescia2091145%78.379.9-1.6
13 Torino2161529%83.887.7-3.9
14 Pesaro2161529%81.493.7-12.3
15 Reggiana2051525%78.783.6-5.0
16 Pistoia2051525%74.583.2-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Avellino1515242276
Varese27269971
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