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Basket Napoli vs Varese Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 20 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#2
Record4-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game93.2
Allowed / game87.2
vs
Position#9
Record3-2
FormWLLWW
Points / game86.8
Allowed / game88.2
ItalyLega ARound 12· PalaBarbuto
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Basket Napoli v Varese
20 Dec 2026
NAP v VAR
upcoming
22 Mar 2026
NAP104
VAR75
12 Apr 2025
NAP87
VAR97
11 Nov 2023
NAP97
VAR96
05 Mar 2023
NAP93
VAR101
14 Mar 2022
NAP74
VAR82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Basket Napoli win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Basket Napoli
5.6out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Above their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 87.4
91.8▲ 4.4
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 87.0
91.2▲ 4.2
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 59%
63%▲ 4%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 18.7
23.4▲ 4.7
🔥 Form · Varese
6.2out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Above their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 85.8
91.4▲ 5.6
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 86.5
84.0▼ 2.5
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 57%
61%▲ 3%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 19.1
21.0▲ 1.9
Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maxima Roma
#8
W
94-75
94
75
+19
A27/09
Lega A
JL Bourg
#25
W
84-76
84
76
+8
H30/09
Eurocup
Reggiana
#11
W
99-93
99
93
+6
H03/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#18
W
93-75
93
75
+18
A06/10
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
99-80
99
80
+19
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#29
W
86-82
86
82
+4
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
82-98
82
98
-16
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
105-101 OT
105
101
+4
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#14
W
92-90
92
90
+2
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#28
W
94-85
94
85
+9
A28/10
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-18
24-24
26-12
23-21
19-17
28-20
18-13
19-26
23-34
27-15
26-28
23-16
25-19
28-14
22-18
18-24
20-19
29-22
17-20
33-19
22-18
18-19
21-24
25-21
25-18
13-23
23-25
21-32
29-20
24-22
20-24
20-27
19-26
22-21
26-17
25-26
24-20
23-25
24-20
23-20
178.3Avg total
92.8Scored
85.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)93.287.2180.4+6.080%
Season at home (2)90.595.5186.0-5.050%
Season away (3)95.081.7176.7+13.3100%
Last 10 (10)92.885.5178.3+7.390%
Last 5 (5)91.891.2183.0+0.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)80.796.2176.8-15.50%
vs Similar (16)87.184.8171.9+2.350%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)92.682.0174.6+10.6100%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cremona
#12
W
84-75
84
75
+9
H26/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
85-104
85
104
-19
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
69-90
69
90
-21
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
85-77
85
77
+8
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#8
L
58-85
58
85
-27
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#10
W
85-84
85
84
+1
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#5
L
82-85
82
85
-3
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#6
L
85-87
85
87
-2
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
A27/10
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-18
26-13
13-24
26-20
17-27
21-22
31-29
16-26
21-26
18-21
19-21
11-22
24-17
16-21
30-24
15-15
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
168.9Avg total
83.8Scored
85.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)86.888.2175.0-1.460%
Season at home (3)88.092.3180.3-4.367%
Season away (2)85.082.0167.0+3.050%
Last 10 (10)83.885.1168.9-1.350%
Last 5 (5)91.484.0175.4+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)83.589.8173.2-6.242%
vs Similar (16)86.285.1171.3+1.156%
vs Weaker (2)90.069.0159.0+21.0100%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -1.2-1.2
Basket NapoliVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maxima Roma
#8
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A27/09
Lega A
JL Bourg
#25
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H30/09
Eurocup
Reggiana
#11
W
50-49
50
49
+1
H03/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#18
W
53-33
53
33
+20
A06/10
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#29
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#14
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#28
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A28/10
Eurocup
87.7Avg total
46.3Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.941.184.1+1.867%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.437.680.1+4.871%-
Last 30 away (16)43.444.287.6-0.862%-
Last 10 (10)46.341.487.7+4.980%-
Last 5 (5)43.842.486.2+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)40.745.085.7-4.350%-
vs Similar (16)42.039.681.6+2.462%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)46.541.487.9+5.188%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cremona
#12
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H26/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#8
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#10
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#5
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#6
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
81.1Avg total
41.2Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.942.383.2-1.443%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.842.084.8+0.853%-
Last 30 away (15)38.942.681.5-3.733%-
Last 10 (10)41.239.981.1+1.360%-
Last 5 (5)45.639.084.6+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)41.344.786.0-3.333%-
vs Similar (16)40.241.882.1-1.644%-
vs Weaker (2)43.032.075.0+11.0100%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 92.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.4 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.520.2
58.6%
54.3%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.411.9
41.9%
34.7%35.7
🏀 Free throws23.016.7
72.6%
74.4%16.7
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 83.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.4 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.417.4
50.6%
54.3%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.210.6
35.1%
34.7%31.8
🏀 Free throws23.916.5
69.0%
74.4%16.5
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Basket Napoli
WWWLWWWWWW
Varese
WWLLWLWLLW
#2
League position
#9
+8.3
Net rating
-1.4
105.9
Offensive rating
89.8
97.5
Defensive rating
91.2
60.5%
Effective FG%
51.5%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
16.3%
Turnover %
18.5%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.37
41.9%
3-point %
35.1%
67.9%
Assist %
68.2%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.9 · 89.8Defence97.5 · 91.2Shooting60.5% · 51.5%3-point %41.9% · 35.1%Ball care16.3% · 18.5%Free throws0.37 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)90% · 50%
■ Basket Napoli   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Basket Napoli wins
7
Varese wins
DateGameScore
22/03/26Basket Napoli v Varese104-75
03/01/26Varese v Basket Napoli84-80
12/04/25Basket Napoli v Varese87-97
28/12/24Varese v Basket Napoli89-86
07/04/24Varese v Basket Napoli113-79
11/11/23Basket Napoli v Varese97-96
05/03/23Basket Napoli v Varese93-101
15/01/23Varese v Basket Napoli106-79
14/03/22Basket Napoli v Varese74-82
12/12/21Varese v Basket Napoli89-98 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26ANeptunas94-85
25/10/26ATortona92-90
21/10/26HTofas105-101 OT
18/10/26HOlimpia Milano82-98
14/10/26ASlask Wroclaw86-82
11/10/26ACantu99-80
06/10/26ABuducnost93-75
03/10/26HReggiana99-93
30/09/26HJL Bourg84-76
27/09/26AMaxima Roma94-75
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
04/10/26AScafati85-77
27/09/26HVirtus Bologna69-90
10/05/26AVirtus Bologna85-104
26/04/26HCremona84-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Basket Napoli
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWL50%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%50%100%
Points / game93.290.595.0
Allowed / game87.295.581.7
Point differential+6.0-5.0+13.3
Avg total180.4186.0176.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%0%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW60%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%67%50%
Points / game86.888.085.0
Allowed / game88.292.382.0
Point differential-1.4-4.3+3.0
Avg total175.0180.3167.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %20%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna550100%97.484.2+13.2
2 Basket Napoli54180%93.287.2+6.0
3 Treviso54180%95.693.0+2.6
4 Olimpia Milano53260%90.682.2+8.4
5 Venezia53260%90.288.6+1.6
6 Trento53260%83.081.8+1.2
7 Verona53260%90.088.8+1.2
8 Maxima Roma53260%86.087.4-1.4
9 Varese53260%86.888.2-1.4
10 Trieste52340%89.085.2+3.8
11 Reggiana52340%85.284.4+0.8
12 Udine52340%79.880.8-1.0
13 BC Roma51420%99.697.8+1.8
14 Tortona51420%84.495.0-10.6
15 Scafati51420%78.490.0-11.6
16 Cantu5050%73.888.4-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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