PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Basket Napoli vs Varese Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 20 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#2
Record5-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game94.2
Allowed / game86.2
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.6/10
Above normal
6.1/10
Above normal
Position#6
Record4-2
FormLLWWW
Points / game88.8
Allowed / game88.2
ItalyLega ARound 12· PalaBarbuto
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Basket Napoli v Varese
20 Dec 2026
NAP v VAR
upcoming
22 Mar 2026
NAP104
VAR75
12 Apr 2025
NAP87
VAR97
11 Nov 2023
NAP97
VAR96
05 Mar 2023
NAP93
VAR101
14 Mar 2022
NAP74
VAR82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Basket Napoli win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Basket NapoliItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNapoli
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#13
W
99-93
99
93
+6
95avg 81
H03/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#12
W
93-75
93
75
+18
94avg 81
A06/10
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
99-80
99
80
+19
90avg 81
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
86-82
86
82
+4
84avg 81
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
82-98
82
98
-16
72avg 81
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
105-101 OT
105
101
+4
99avg 81
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#14
W
92-90
92
90
+2
86avg 81
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#29
W
94-85
94
85
+9
98avg 81
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#10
W
99-81
99
81
+18
no box
H01/11
Lega A
Trento
#25
W
90-79
90
79
+11
no box
H03/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-34
27-15
26-28
23-16
25-19
28-14
22-18
18-24
20-19
29-22
17-20
33-19
22-18
18-19
21-24
25-21
25-18
13-23
23-25
21-32
29-20
24-22
20-24
20-27
19-26
22-21
26-17
25-26
24-20
23-25
24-20
23-20
19-16
25-22
30-20
25-23
24-21
13-18
28-15
25-25
180.3Avg total
93.9Scored
86.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)94.286.2180.3+8.083%
Season at home (3)93.390.7184.0+2.767%
Season away (3)95.081.7176.7+13.3100%
Last 10 (10)93.986.4180.3+7.590%
Last 5 (5)96.087.2183.2+8.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)80.796.2176.8-15.50%
vs Similar (14)87.285.9173.1+1.350%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)93.081.6174.6+11.4100%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
85-104
85
104
-19
70avg 78
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
69-90
69
90
-21
50avg 78
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
85-77
85
77
+8
78avg 78
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#8
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 78
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 78
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#4
L
82-85
82
85
-3
80avg 78
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
85-87
85
87
-2
72avg 78
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#12
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
106avg 78
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
92avg 78
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#9
W
99-88
99
88
+11
90avg 78
A31/10
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-27
21-22
31-29
16-26
21-26
18-21
19-21
11-22
24-17
16-21
30-24
15-15
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
25-23
25-21
23-27
26-17
171.7Avg total
85.3Scored
86.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)88.888.2177.0+0.767%
Season at home (3)88.092.3180.3-4.367%
Season away (3)89.784.0173.7+5.767%
Last 10 (10)85.386.4171.7-1.150%
Last 5 (5)94.284.8179.0+9.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)83.490.3173.6-6.936%
vs Similar (17)86.685.4172.0+1.259%
vs Weaker (2)90.069.0159.0+21.0100%
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q3: -1.4-1.4Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -0.9-0.9
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +2.6+2.6Q3: -1.4-1.4Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -0.9-0.9
Basket NapoliVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#13
W
50-49
50
49
+1
H03/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#12
W
53-33
53
33
+20
A06/10
Eurocup
Cantu
#16
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
53-42
53
42
+11
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#14
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#29
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#10
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H01/11
Lega A
Trento
#25
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H03/11
Eurocup
86.4Avg total
45.2Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.541.283.7+1.467%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.437.979.3+3.567%-
Last 30 away (15)43.744.488.1-0.767%-
Last 10 (10)45.241.286.4+4.070%-
Last 5 (5)44.442.286.6+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)40.745.085.7-4.350%-
vs Similar (14)41.439.881.1+1.664%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)45.340.886.1+4.580%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A10/05
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#8
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#4
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#12
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#9
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A31/10
Lega A
82.9Avg total
41.7Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.142.483.5-1.343%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.842.184.9+0.650%-
Last 30 away (16)39.642.782.3-3.138%-
Last 10 (10)41.741.282.9+0.560%-
Last 5 (5)47.640.287.8+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)41.545.386.7-3.827%-
vs Similar (17)40.641.882.5-1.247%-
vs Weaker (2)43.032.075.0+11.0100%-
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Basket Napolitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Basket Napoli: 92.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.5 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.520.2
58.6%
54.3%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.411.9
41.9%
34.5%35.7
🏀 Free throws23.016.7
72.6%
74.4%16.7
They take 62.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.5 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.0
50.7%
54.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
34.5%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.1
69.2%
74.4%17.1
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Basket Napoli
WWWWWLWWWW
Varese
WWWLLWLWLL
#2
League position
#6
+8.3
Net rating
-1.2
105.9
Offensive rating
91.5
97.5
Defensive rating
92.7
60.5%
Effective FG%
52.4%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
16.3%
Turnover %
18.5%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.38
41.9%
3-point %
36.3%
67.9%
Assist %
66.7%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.9 · 91.5Defence97.5 · 92.7Shooting60.5% · 52.4%3-point %41.9% · 36.3%Ball care16.3% · 18.5%Free throws0.37 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)90% · 50%
■ Basket Napoli   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Basket Napoli wins
7
Varese wins
DateGameScore
22/03/26Basket Napoli v Varese104-75
03/01/26Varese v Basket Napoli84-80
12/04/25Basket Napoli v Varese87-97
28/12/24Varese v Basket Napoli89-86
07/04/24Varese v Basket Napoli113-79
11/11/23Basket Napoli v Varese97-96
05/03/23Basket Napoli v Varese93-101
15/01/23Varese v Basket Napoli106-79
14/03/22Basket Napoli v Varese74-82
12/12/21Varese v Basket Napoli89-98 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HTrento90-79
01/11/26HVenezia99-81
28/10/26ANeptunas94-85
25/10/26ATortona92-90
21/10/26HTofas105-101 OT
18/10/26HOlimpia Milano82-98
14/10/26ASlask Wroclaw86-82
11/10/26ACantu99-80
06/10/26ABuducnost93-75
03/10/26HReggiana99-93
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26AVerona99-88
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
04/10/26AScafati85-77
27/09/26HVirtus Bologna69-90
10/05/26AVirtus Bologna85-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Basket Napoli
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW83%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%67%100%
Points / game94.293.395.0
Allowed / game86.290.781.7
Point differential+8.0+2.7+13.3
Avg total180.3184.0176.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%33%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW67%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game88.888.089.7
Allowed / game88.292.384.0
Point differential+0.7-4.3+5.7
Avg total177.0180.3173.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %17%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna65183%96.786.8+9.8
2 Basket Napoli65183%94.286.2+8.0
3 Treviso65183%93.288.8+4.3
4 Olimpia Milano64267%91.382.2+9.2
5 Maxima Roma64267%86.383.2+3.2
6 Varese64267%88.888.2+0.7
7 Trieste63350%90.886.5+4.3
8 Udine63350%80.880.2+0.7
9 Verona63350%89.790.5-0.8
10 Venezia63350%88.790.3-1.7
11 Trento63350%79.582.8-3.3
12 BC Roma62433%100.296.5+3.7
13 Reggiana62433%82.383.8-1.5
14 Tortona61517%83.293.5-10.3
15 Scafati61517%80.392.2-11.8
16 Cantu6060%75.289.5-14.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.