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Varese vs Brescia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Jan 2023
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 80-72
15-16 29-22 27-17 9-17
Position#4
Record9-7
FormLLWWL
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game90.9
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Brescia
Italy
Position#8
Record7-9
FormWLLLL
Points / game84.4
Allowed / game83.2
ItalyLega ARound 17
Domestic2022-23
Meetings · Varese v Brescia
14 Feb 2026
VAR98
BRE96
25 Jan 2025
VAR77
BRE118
30 Mar 2024
VAR92
BRE95
28 Jan 2023
VAR80
BRE72
26 Sep 2021
VAR75
BRE72
27 Sep 2020
VAR94
BRE89
13 Sep 2020
VAR102
BRE100
11 Mar 2020
VAR v BRE
upcoming
07 Oct 2018
VAR81
BRE80
16 May 2018
VAR64
BRE69
11 Feb 2018
VAR100
BRE72
19 Nov 2016
VAR68
BRE74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Brescia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Venezia
#6
W
93-90
93
90
+3
73avg 78
H19/11
Lega A
Verona
#16
W
98-91
98
91
+7
88avg 78
A27/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
100-108
100
108
-8
86avg 78
H04/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
93-101
93
101
-8
88avg 78
A11/12
Lega A
Trieste
#15
W
104-99 OT
104
99
+5
no box
H18/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
84-96
84
96
-12
61avg 78
A26/12
Lega A
Tortona
#3
L
88-89
88
89
-1
76avg 78
H02/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
104-90
104
90
+14
103avg 78
A08/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#12
W
106-79
106
79
+27
109avg 78
H15/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
80-90
80
90
-10
68avg 78
A22/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-16
27-23
26-30
20-21
34-30
25-19
19-21
20-21
20-28
27-28
22-23
31-29
27-27
17-32
30-23
19-19
26-16
21-22
25-21
16-29
21-36
11-21
28-25
24-14
17-18
27-24
29-20
15-27
26-27
29-17
23-24
26-22
24-20
22-20
27-20
33-19
16-28
25-23
19-23
20-16
188.3Avg total
95.0Scored
93.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)92.990.9183.8+1.956%
Season at home (8)94.590.6185.1+3.962%
Season away (8)91.291.2182.5+0.050%
Last 10 (10)95.093.3188.3+1.750%
Last 5 (5)92.488.8181.2+3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)85.591.5177.0-5.936%
vs Similar ◀ (14)88.588.1176.6+0.450%
vs Weaker (5)97.691.0188.6+6.680%
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrescia
Date
Competition
Bursaspor
#15
W
110-74
110
74
+36
113avg 77
H20/12
Eurocup
Tennessee State
#151
L
83-98
83
98
-15
no box
A20/12
NCAA
Reggiana
#14
W
84-77
84
77
+7
73avg 77
H26/12
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
94-92 OT
94
92
+2
no box
A02/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
73-78
73
78
-5
67avg 77
H07/01
Lega A
Joventut Badalona
#4
W
85-75
85
75
+10
82avg 77
H10/01
Eurocup
Verona
#16
L
77-81
77
81
-4
71avg 77
A15/01
Lega A
Prometey
#2
L
72-79
72
79
-7
62avg 77
A18/01
Eurocup
Treviso
#13
L
80-81
80
81
-1
76avg 77
H22/01
Lega A
Ulm
#6
L
72-85
72
85
-13
no box
H25/01
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
26-21
31-16
28-15
0-0
50-55
0-0
33-43
21-18
24-15
20-19
19-25
21-17
23-23
13-29
27-15
20-25
12-25
17-13
24-15
25-17
19-20
16-18
25-20
20-14
18-22
17-20
22-25
19-15
16-16
18-23
19-25
23-18
16-18
23-24
18-21
18-15
21-21
16-22
17-27
165.0Avg total
83.0Scored
82.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)84.483.2167.6+1.244%
Season at home (9)84.380.8165.1+3.656%
Season away (7)84.486.3170.7-1.929%
Last 10 (10)83.082.0165.0+1.040%
Last 5 (5)77.280.2157.4-3.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)73.989.3163.2-15.422%
vs Similar ◀ (13)81.279.9161.1+1.246%
vs Weaker (8)87.686.5174.1+1.138%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +0.1+0.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +0.1+0.1
VareseBrescia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezia
#6
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H19/11
Lega A
Verona
#16
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A27/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
47-56
47
56
-9
H04/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
44-59
44
59
-15
A11/12
Lega A
Trieste
#15
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H18/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
32-57
32
57
-25
A26/12
Lega A
Tortona
#3
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H02/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
55-44
55
44
+11
A08/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#12
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H15/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
41-51
41
51
-10
A22/01
Lega A
93.7Avg total
46.2Scored
47.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.144.689.7+0.560%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.543.387.8+1.353%-
Last 30 away (15)45.746.091.7-0.367%-
Last 10 (10)46.247.593.7-1.360%-
Last 5 (5)43.646.890.4-3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)43.546.589.9-3.055%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)45.642.688.1+3.064%-
vs Weaker (5)47.446.493.8+1.060%-
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bursaspor
#15
W
51-43
51
43
+8
H20/12
Eurocup
Tennessee State
#151
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A20/12
NCAA
Reggiana
#14
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H26/12
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A02/01
Lega A
Trento
#7
L
32-50
32
50
-18
H07/01
Lega A
Joventut Badalona
#4
W
44-37
44
37
+7
H10/01
Eurocup
Verona
#16
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A15/01
Lega A
Prometey
#2
W
35-31
35
31
+4
A18/01
Eurocup
Treviso
#13
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H22/01
Lega A
Ulm
#6
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H25/01
Eurocup
81.4Avg total
41.7Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.242.381.6-3.150%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.140.680.7-0.664%-
Last 30 away (16)38.543.882.3-5.338%-
Last 10 (10)41.739.781.4+2.080%-
Last 5 (5)39.035.274.2+3.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)35.144.079.1-8.933%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)39.740.980.6-1.262%-
vs Weaker (8)43.142.885.9+0.450%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 93.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.419.8
54.4%
51.3%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.912.0
36.5%
36.4%36.0
🏀 Free throws24.417.7
72.5%
76.1%17.7
They take 69.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bresciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brescia: 80.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.8 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.718.2
52.4%
51.3%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.49.0
36.9%
36.4%27.0
🏀 Free throws22.117.5
79.2%
76.1%17.5
They take 59.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Jan 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWWLLWLLWW
Brescia
LLLLWLWWLW
#4
League position
#8
+1.7
Net rating
-6.2
112.8
Offensive rating
111.6
111.1
Defensive rating
117.8
54.5%
Effective FG%
53.6%
54.0%
Opp. effective FG%
56.1%
15.1%
Turnover %
17.4%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
28.5%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.37
36.5%
3-point %
36.9%
54.4%
Assist %
62.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence112.8 · 111.6Defence111.1 · 117.8Shooting54.5% · 53.6%3-point %36.5% · 36.9%Ball care15.1% · 17.4%Off. rebounds23.9% · 28.5%Free throws0.35 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Varese   ■ Brescia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Varese wins
6
Brescia wins
DateGameScore
08/10/22Brescia v Varese88-83
01/05/22Brescia v Varese102-71
26/09/21Varese v Brescia75-72
10/02/21Brescia v Varese98-83
27/09/20Varese v Brescia94-89 OT
13/09/20Varese v Brescia102-100
01/09/20Brescia v Varese89-88
10/11/19Brescia v Varese91-74
20/01/19Brescia v Varese78-73
07/10/18Varese v Brescia81-80
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/23ATrento80-90
15/01/23HBasket Napoli106-79
08/01/23ABrindisi104-90
02/01/23HTortona88-89
26/12/22AOlimpia Milano84-96
18/12/22HTrieste104-99 OT
11/12/22APesaro93-101
04/12/22HVirtus Bologna100-108
27/11/22AVerona98-91
19/11/22HVenezia93-90
Brescialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/23HUlm72-85
22/01/23HTreviso80-81
18/01/23APrometey72-79
15/01/23AVerona77-81
10/01/23HJoventut Badalona85-75
07/01/23HTrento73-78
02/01/23ASassari94-92 OT
26/12/22HReggiana84-77
20/12/22ATennessee State83-98
20/12/22HBursaspor110-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL56%
HomeWLWLW62%
AwayWLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %56%62%50%
Points / game92.994.591.2
Allowed / game90.990.691.2
Point differential+1.9+3.9+0.0
Avg total183.8185.1182.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%12%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)60% (5)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
Brescia
Lega A 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL44%
HomeWLWLL56%
AwayLWLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %44%56%29%
Points / game84.484.384.4
Allowed / game83.280.886.3
Point differential+1.2+3.6-1.9
Avg total167.6165.1170.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%22%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)40% (5)33% (6)
Overtime %19%11%29%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano1612475%82.973.2+9.7
2 Virtus Bologna1612475%84.477.4+7.0
3 Tortona1611569%80.876.0+4.8
4 Pesaro1610662%87.483.2+4.1
5 Varese169756%92.990.9+1.9
6 Trento169756%74.875.6-0.9
7 Venezia168850%82.279.2+2.9
8 Brescia167944%84.483.2+1.2
9 Sassari167944%82.881.7+1.1
10 Brindisi167944%80.084.3-4.3
11 Trieste167944%79.483.8-4.4
12 Scafati1661038%76.577.6-1.1
13 Treviso1661038%78.284.8-6.5
14 Basket Napoli1661038%77.784.2-6.6
15 Verona1661038%78.485.6-7.1
16 Reggiana1651131%75.877.8-2.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese152927980
Brescia1622171772
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