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Caserta vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 29 Jan 2017
Tip-off: 17:15
Final 80-86
21-28 22-19 19-19 18-20
Position#13
Record8-8
FormLLLLW
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game85.2
Caserta
Italy
vs
Varese 🏆
Italy
Position#10
Record4-12
FormLWWLL
Points / game75.7
Allowed / game80.9
ItalyLega ARound 17
Domestic2016-17
Meetings · Caserta v Varese
29 Jan 2017
KAS80
VAR86
17 Jan 2016
KAS70
VAR77
21 Dec 2014
KAS78
VAR82
22 Dec 2013
KAS86
VAR80
04 Nov 2012
KAS56
VAR73
26 Feb 2012
KAS87
VAR91
12 Dec 2010
KAS92
VAR80
03 Jan 2010
KAS76
VAR53
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Caserta winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CasertaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCaserta
Date
Competition
Cantu
#14
W
83-82
83
82
+1
111avg 109
A13/11
Lega A
Capo d'Orlando
#8
W
91-86
91
86
+5
115avg 109
H20/11
Lega A
Venezia
#1
L
92-98 OT
92
98
-6
no box
A27/11
Lega A
Brescia
#11
W
89-83
89
83
+6
117avg 109
H04/12
Lega A
Torino
#12
L
77-80
77
80
-3
103avg 109
A11/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
L
82-87
82
87
-5
110avg 109
H18/12
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
L
72-100
72
100
-28
no box
A27/12
Lega A
Avellino
#3
L
82-86
82
86
-4
114avg 109
H01/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
77-95
77
95
-18
105avg 109
A08/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#6
W
86-85 OT
86
85
+1
no box
A22/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-28
17-18
12-13
30-23
25-19
22-18
11-22
33-27
22-14
12-19
16-21
20-16
29-27
17-22
23-13
20-21
24-19
16-27
23-21
14-13
15-10
21-26
26-20
20-31
16-29
26-27
14-15
16-29
23-22
20-26
23-18
16-20
17-20
17-23
26-31
17-21
22-21
15-24
23-18
16-13
171.3Avg total
83.1Scored
88.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)82.285.2167.5-3.050%
Season at home (7)82.978.4161.3+4.471%
Season away (9)81.890.6172.3-8.833%
Last 10 (10)83.188.2171.3-5.140%
Last 5 (5)79.890.6170.4-10.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)79.487.6167.0-8.215%
vs Similar ◀ (17)78.478.8157.1-0.465%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
L
68-84
68
84
-16
94avg 102
A18/12
Lega A
PAOK
#22
L
69-78
69
78
-9
no box
A21/12
Champions League
Venezia
#1
L
60-73
60
73
-13
85avg 102
H27/12
Lega A
Cremona
#16
L
71-85
71
85
-14
no box
A02/01
Lega A
Ventspils
#23
L
82-88
82
88
-6
no box
H04/01
Champions League
Torino
#12
L
79-86
79
86
-7
111avg 102
H07/01
Lega A
HydroTruck Radom
#44
W
74-61
74
61
+13
no box
A10/01
Champions League
Usak Sportif
#33
W
85-77
85
77
+8
no box
H18/01
Champions League
Sassari
#5
L
76-83
76
83
-7
95avg 102
H22/01
Lega A
Oldenburg
#12
L
53-78
53
78
-25
no box
A24/01
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-24
21-22
21-17
13-21
20-20
14-20
17-13
18-25
12-24
11-14
14-19
23-16
20-23
20-17
20-26
11-19
19-18
18-28
22-26
23-16
29-21
20-21
14-15
16-29
24-27
17-17
22-10
11-7
24-17
21-20
24-19
16-21
24-25
18-17
19-20
15-21
12-21
10-18
25-25
6-14
151.0Avg total
71.7Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)75.780.9156.6-5.225%
Season at home (9)78.679.2157.8-0.733%
Season away (7)72.083.1155.1-11.114%
Last 10 (10)71.779.3151.0-7.620%
Last 5 (5)73.477.0150.4-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)70.581.6152.1-11.117%
vs Similar ◀ (12)76.979.1156.0-2.242%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Caserta) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: -4.7-4.7Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -3.7-3.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -2.3-2.3Q2Q2: -4.7-4.7Q2: -2.4-2.4Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -3.7-3.7
CasertaVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CasertaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cantu
#14
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A13/11
Lega A
Capo d'Orlando
#8
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H20/11
Lega A
Venezia
#1
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A27/11
Lega A
Brescia
#11
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H04/12
Lega A
Torino
#12
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A11/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#15
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H18/12
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A27/12
Lega A
Avellino
#3
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H01/01
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A08/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#6
L
37-45
37
45
-8
A22/01
Lega A
83.9Avg total
40.0Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.341.579.9-3.233%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.039.179.1+0.950%-
Last 30 away (16)36.943.780.6-6.819%-
Last 10 (10)40.043.983.9-3.920%-
Last 5 (5)38.445.684.0-7.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)38.744.483.1-5.723%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)38.139.477.4-1.341%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A18/12
Lega A
PAOK
#22
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A21/12
Champions League
Venezia
#1
L
23-38
23
38
-15
H27/12
Lega A
Cremona
#16
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A02/01
Lega A
Ventspils
#23
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H04/01
Champions League
Torino
#12
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H07/01
Lega A
HydroTruck Radom
#44
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A10/01
Champions League
Usak Sportif
#33
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H18/01
Champions League
Sassari
#5
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H22/01
Lega A
Oldenburg
#12
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A24/01
Champions League
78.1Avg total
36.7Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.741.577.3-5.820%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.040.578.5-2.531%-
Last 30 away (14)33.142.775.9-9.67%-
Last 10 (10)36.741.478.1-4.720%-
Last 5 (5)39.840.880.6-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)33.942.776.7-8.86%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)38.439.878.2-1.342%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Caserta) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Casertatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Caserta: 78.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.7 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.418.6
54.1%
51.1%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.39.4
38.7%
35.7%28.2
🏀 Free throws18.113.1
72.4%
74.0%13.1
They take 58.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 73.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.7 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.119.5
48.6%
51.1%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.67.2
31.9%
35.7%21.6
🏀 Free throws16.412.9
78.7%
74.0%12.9
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Jan 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Caserta
WLLLLLWLWW
Varese
LLWWLLLLLL
#13
League position
#10
-4.5
Net rating
-8.7
106.0
Offensive rating
99.7
110.4
Defensive rating
108.3
55.7%
Effective FG%
48.3%
54.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.5%
19.8%
Turnover %
20.0%
24.2%
Off. rebound %
30.3%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.26
38.7%
3-point %
31.9%
66.4%
Assist %
46.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence106.0 · 99.7Defence110.4 · 108.3Shooting55.7% · 48.3%3-point %38.7% · 31.9%Ball care19.8% · 20.0%Off. rebounds24.2% · 30.3%Free throws0.31 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Caserta   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Caserta wins
8
Varese wins
DateGameScore
09/10/16Varese v Caserta93-74
17/01/16Caserta v Varese70-77
04/10/15Varese v Caserta51-58
12/04/15Varese v Caserta84-80
21/12/14Caserta v Varese78-82
06/04/14Varese v Caserta72-67
22/12/13Caserta v Varese86-80
03/03/13Varese v Caserta74-62
04/11/12Caserta v Varese56-73
26/02/12Caserta v Varese87-91
Casertalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/01/17AReggiana86-85 OT
08/01/17ASassari77-95
01/01/17HAvellino82-86
27/12/16ABrindisi72-100
18/12/16HPesaro82-87
11/12/16ATorino77-80
04/12/16HBrescia89-83
27/11/16AVenezia92-98 OT
20/11/16HCapo d'Orlando91-86
13/11/16ACantu83-82
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/17AOldenburg53-78
22/01/17HSassari76-83
18/01/17HUsak Sportif85-77
10/01/17AHydroTruck Radom74-61
07/01/17HTorino79-86
04/01/17HVentspils82-88
02/01/17ACremona71-85
27/12/16HVenezia60-73
21/12/16APAOK69-78
18/12/16ATrento68-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Caserta
Lega A 2016-17
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW50%
HomeWWWLL71%
AwayLLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %50%71%33%
Points / game82.282.981.8
Allowed / game85.278.490.6
Point differential-3.0+4.4-8.8
Avg total167.5161.3172.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%14%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %12%0%22%
Varese
Lega A 2016-17
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL25%
HomeLWLLL33%
AwayLWLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %25%33%14%
Points / game75.778.672.0
Allowed / game80.979.283.1
Point differential-5.2-0.7-11.1
Avg total156.6157.8155.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %12%22%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano1614288%89.179.3+9.8
2 Venezia1712571%83.480.4+3.0
3 Avellino1611569%80.675.3+5.2
4 Sassari169756%78.874.6+4.1
5 Reggiana169756%81.281.4-0.2
6 Capo d'Orlando179853%78.377.9+0.4
7 Brescia168850%82.980.8+2.2
8 Torino168850%82.284.2-2.1
9 Pistoia168850%75.277.3-2.1
10 Caserta168850%82.285.2-3.0
11 Trento167944%75.674.2+1.4
12 Brindisi167944%82.982.9+0.0
13 Cantu1661038%77.582.9-5.4
14 Pesaro1651131%74.579.2-4.8
15 Cremona1641225%75.679.1-3.6
16 Varese1641225%75.780.9-5.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Caserta2122191880
Varese2819192086
← all games of the day
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