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Neptunas vs Gargzdai Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 21 May 2026
Tip-off: 15:50
Final 100-73
22-25 32-18 22-14 24-16
Position#3
Record17-15
FormLLLLW
Points / game92.8
Allowed / game90.3
vs
Position#5
Record15-17
FormWLWWW
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game87.4
LithuaniaLKLLKL - Quarter-finals· Svyturio Arena
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Neptunas v Gargzdai
02 May 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
31 Jan 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
21 May 2026
NEP100
GAR73
10 May 2026
NEP91
GAR97
11 Oct 2025
NEP102
GAR74
14 Jan 2024
NEP100
GAR81
16 Nov 2023
NEP84
GAR78
29 Apr 2023
NEP91
GAR86
24 Oct 2022
NEP94
GAR69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gargzdai winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Juventus
#7
W
95-89
95
89
+6
95avg 84
H06/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
88-93
88
93
-5
84avg 84
H11/04
LKL
Siauliai
#4
W
98-83
98
83
+15
102avg 84
H19/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
110-82
110
82
+28
108avg 84
A23/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
L
80-83
80
83
-3
73avg 84
A26/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
91-98
91
98
-7
90avg 84
H29/04
LKL
Juventus
#7
L
91-102
91
102
-11
81avg 84
A02/05
LKL
Gargzdai
#5
L
91-97
91
97
-6
83avg 84
H10/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
90-93
90
93
-3
84avg 84
H13/05
LKL
Jonava
#8
W
95-89
95
89
+6
90avg 84
H17/05
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-20
28-28
15-21
21-20
29-20
19-29
23-19
17-25
23-23
27-17
25-24
23-19
31-22
39-15
18-24
22-21
19-16
19-23
23-15
19-29
24-24
21-22
22-20
24-32
20-20
23-27
18-30
30-25
30-30
18-25
21-24
22-18
22-27
28-27
19-28
21-11
24-27
29-17
25-18
17-27
183.8Avg total
92.9Scored
90.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)92.890.3183.1+2.553%
Season at home (16)95.389.4184.8+5.962%
Season away (16)90.291.1181.4-0.944%
Last 10 (10)92.990.9183.8+2.040%
Last 5 (5)91.695.8187.4-4.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)85.4101.1186.6-15.711%
vs Similar (9)89.087.7176.7+1.344%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)91.987.8179.8+4.158%
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGargzdai
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
L
77-98
77
98
-21
63avg 77
A29/03
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
L
64-89
64
89
-25
53avg 77
H12/04
LKL
Siauliai
#4
L
78-81
78
81
-3
70avg 77
H15/04
LKL
Juventus
#7
W
103-98 OT
103
98
+5
94avg 77
A18/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
77-85
77
85
-8
68avg 77
A22/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
90-85
90
85
+5
90avg 77
A26/04
LKL
Jonava
#8
L
104-109 OT
104
109
-5
97avg 77
H02/05
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
W
78-69
78
69
+9
75avg 77
A06/05
LKL
Neptunas
#3
W
97-91
97
91
+6
92avg 77
A10/05
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
103-98
103
98
+5
99avg 77
H16/05
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
12-25
22-24
14-29
18-21
11-22
20-29
15-17
17-14
19-24
19-26
23-17
27-22
13-26
22-23
22-13
31-34
9-21
22-14
15-16
21-24
23-12
17-25
29-24
16-30
23-23
22-13
24-19
22-16
17-15
25-14
14-24
30-30
25-18
24-21
18-22
22-25
25-30
25-19
31-24
177.4Avg total
87.1Scored
90.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)83.887.4171.2-3.747%
Season at home (16)84.884.9169.7-0.150%
Season away (16)82.789.9172.6-7.244%
Last 10 (10)87.190.3177.4-3.250%
Last 5 (5)94.490.4184.8+4.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)79.986.0165.9-6.146%
vs Similar (9)86.787.3174.0-0.756%
vs Weaker (8)88.689.4178.0-0.850%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.0+0.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.0+0.0
NeptunasGargzdai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Juventus
#7
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H06/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H11/04
LKL
Siauliai
#4
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H19/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
70-37
70
37
+33
A23/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A26/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H29/04
LKL
Juventus
#7
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A02/05
LKL
Gargzdai
#5
L
48-55
48
55
-7
H10/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H13/05
LKL
Jonava
#8
W
53-44
53
44
+9
H17/05
LKL
96.3Avg total
50.4Scored
45.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.546.593.0+0.143%-
Last 30 at home (17)48.447.595.9+0.947%-
Last 30 away (13)44.145.189.2-1.038%-
Last 10 (10)50.445.996.3+4.540%-
Last 5 (5)47.849.297.0-1.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)43.853.497.2-9.70%-
vs Similar (9)44.443.487.9+1.056%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)50.243.593.7+6.767%-
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A29/03
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
L
29-43
29
43
-14
H12/04
LKL
Siauliai
#4
L
36-38
36
38
-2
H15/04
LKL
Juventus
#7
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A18/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
40-55
40
55
-15
A22/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A26/04
LKL
Jonava
#8
L
39-53
39
53
-14
H02/05
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A06/05
LKL
Neptunas
#3
W
55-48
55
48
+7
A10/05
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H16/05
LKL
86.2Avg total
41.0Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.544.083.5-4.540%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.142.581.6-3.436%-
Last 30 away (16)39.945.385.2-5.444%-
Last 10 (10)41.045.286.2-4.230%-
Last 5 (5)44.844.689.4+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)39.042.981.9-3.938%-
vs Similar (9)38.945.684.4-6.733%-
vs Weaker (8)41.144.085.1-2.950%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 92.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.820.7
59.5%
55.4%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.910.8
38.7%
35.5%32.4
🏀 Free throws24.618.9
76.8%
74.3%18.9
They take 62.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gargzdaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gargzdai: 87.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.822.7
51.8%
55.4%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.88.1
35.5%
35.5%24.3
🏀 Free throws22.517.4
77.3%
74.3%17.4
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
WLLLLLWWLW
Gargzdai
WWWLWLWLLL
#3
League position
#5
+2.5
Net rating
-3.3
106.9
Offensive rating
96.7
104.4
Defensive rating
100.0
58.9%
Effective FG%
52.3%
56.1%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
13.7%
Turnover %
14.5%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.34
38.7%
3-point %
35.5%
67.9%
Assist %
54.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.9 · 96.7Defence104.4 · 100.0Shooting58.9% · 52.3%3-point %38.7% · 35.5%Ball care13.7% · 14.5%Free throws0.39 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Neptunas   ■ Gargzdai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Neptunas wins
2
Gargzdai wins
DateGameScore
10/05/26Neptunas v Gargzdai91-97
14/03/26Gargzdai v Neptunas81-70
13/12/25Gargzdai v Neptunas87-104
11/10/25Neptunas v Gargzdai102-74
14/01/24Neptunas v Gargzdai100-81
16/11/23Neptunas v Gargzdai84-78
06/11/23Gargzdai v Neptunas73-92
25/10/23Gargzdai v Neptunas87-97
29/04/23Neptunas v Gargzdai91-86
13/03/23Gargzdai v Neptunas54-73
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/05/26HJonava95-89
13/05/26HZalgiris Kaunas90-93
10/05/26HGargzdai91-97
02/05/26AJuventus91-102
29/04/26HRytas91-98
26/04/26ALietkabelis80-83
23/04/26ANevezis110-82
19/04/26HSiauliai98-83
11/04/26HNevezis88-93
06/04/26HJuventus95-89
Gargzdailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/05/26HRytas103-98
10/05/26ANeptunas97-91
06/05/26ALietkabelis78-69
02/05/26HJonava104-109 OT
26/04/26ANevezis90-85
22/04/26AZalgiris Kaunas77-85
18/04/26AJuventus103-98 OT
15/04/26HSiauliai78-81
12/04/26HLietkabelis64-89
29/03/26ARytas77-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
LKL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW53%
HomeWLLLW62%
AwayLLWLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %53%62%44%
Points / game92.895.390.2
Allowed / game90.389.491.1
Point differential+2.5+5.9-0.9
Avg total183.1184.8181.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%31%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won12% (8)25% (4)0% (4)
Overtime %6%6%6%
Gargzdai
LKL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW47%
HomeWLLLW50%
AwayWLWWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %47%50%44%
Points / game83.884.882.7
Allowed / game87.484.989.9
Point differential-3.7-0.1-7.2
Avg total171.2169.7172.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%19%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %6%6%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas3332197%91.676.9+14.6
2 Rytas33201361%92.585.5+7.0
3 Neptunas32171553%92.890.3+2.5
4 Siauliai33171652%85.287.5-2.2
5 Lietkabelis33161748%83.480.9+2.5
6 Gargzdai32151747%83.887.4-3.7
7 Juventus33132039%87.590.3-2.8
8 Jonava3392427%85.294.0-8.8
9 Nevezis3282425%82.992.5-9.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas22322224100
Gargzdai2518141673
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