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Neptunas vs Gargzdai Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 31 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 15:00
Scheduled
Position#5
Record5-5
FormLLWWL
Points / game84.9
Allowed / game84.9
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.6/10
Around normal
3.9/10
Below normal
Position#3
Record6-4
FormWWLWL
Points / game88.3
Allowed / game87.3
LithuaniaLKL· Svyturio Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Neptunas v Gargzdai
02 May 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
31 Jan 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
21 May 2026
NEP100
GAR73
10 May 2026
NEP91
GAR97
11 Oct 2025
NEP102
GAR74
14 Jan 2024
NEP100
GAR81
16 Nov 2023
NEP84
GAR78
29 Apr 2023
NEP91
GAR86
24 Oct 2022
NEP94
GAR69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Gargzdai win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
JL Bourg
#24
W
93-89
93
89
+4
86avg 79
H13/10
Eurocup
Jonava
#7
W
84-83
84
83
+1
75avg 79
A17/10
LKL
Buducnost
#10
L
89-104
89
104
-15
81avg 79
A20/10
Eurocup
Siauliai
#6
W
110-88
110
88
+22
108avg 79
H25/10
LKL
Basket Napoli
#2
L
85-94
85
94
-9
77avg 79
H28/10
Eurocup
Lietkabelis
#4
L
79-99
79
99
-20
78avg 79
A31/10
LKL
Tofas
#6
L
79-94
79
94
-15
no box
A03/11
Eurocup
Taurage
#9
W
82-80
82
80
+2
no box
H07/11
LKL
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
90-82
90
82
+8
no box
H10/11
Eurocup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
A15/11
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-14
19-29
17-24
25-22
29-24
19-21
17-21
19-17
22-31
20-25
26-24
21-24
25-23
26-17
31-26
28-22
20-24
25-23
20-24
20-23
33-19
20-29
11-25
15-26
29-19
20-24
10-24
20-27
11-22
23-21
20-23
28-14
21-18
17-20
30-26
22-18
29-23
14-25
25-21
14-18
177.3Avg total
87.3Scored
90.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)84.984.9169.8+0.050%
Season at home (5)89.881.4171.2+8.480%
Season away (5)80.088.4168.4-8.420%
Last 10 (10)87.390.0177.3-2.750%
Last 5 (5)82.488.4170.8-6.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)81.993.0174.9-11.10%
vs Similar ◀ (11)84.382.2166.5+2.164%
vs Weaker (11)89.984.2174.1+5.764%
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGargzdai
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
W
105-102
105
102
+3
96avg 79
A03/10
LKL
Jurbarkas
#3
W
79-75
79
75
+4
65avg 79
H06/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Taurage
#9
W
102-82
102
82
+20
97avg 79
A11/10
LKL
Nevezis
#2
W
101-86
101
86
+15
103avg 79
A14/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#8
L
90-100
90
100
-10
80avg 79
A18/10
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
W
83-80
83
80
+3
81avg 79
H24/10
LKL
Taurage
#4
W
81-78
81
78
+3
74avg 79
H27/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#10
L
76-87
76
87
-11
no box
A02/11
LKL
Jonava
#7
W
91-70
91
70
+21
no box
A08/11
LKL
Siauliai
#6
L
82-97
82
97
-15
no box
A14/11
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-25
20-23
27-32
27-22
16-20
29-21
18-24
16-10
22-29
29-19
24-20
27-14
18-18
27-20
30-25
26-23
25-31
26-26
19-20
20-23
27-14
12-23
16-22
28-21
17-15
24-26
23-9
17-28
25-22
17-27
19-18
15-20
17-20
20-16
30-18
24-16
25-28
16-19
22-24
19-26
174.7Avg total
89.0Scored
85.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)88.387.3175.6+1.060%
Season at home (4)84.283.8168.0+0.575%
Season away (6)91.089.7180.7+1.350%
Last 10 (10)89.085.7174.7+3.370%
Last 5 (5)82.682.4165.0+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)78.586.5165.0-7.936%
vs Similar ◀ (10)90.888.3179.1+2.570%
vs Weaker (9)89.084.7173.7+4.367%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.4+3.4Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
NeptunasGargzdai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
JL Bourg
#24
W
51-43
51
43
+8
H13/10
Eurocup
Jonava
#7
W
48-45
48
45
+3
A17/10
LKL
Buducnost
#10
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A20/10
Eurocup
Siauliai
#6
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H25/10
LKL
Basket Napoli
#2
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H28/10
Eurocup
Lietkabelis
#4
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A31/10
LKL
Tofas
#6
W
49-43
49
43
+6
A03/11
Eurocup
Taurage
#9
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H07/11
LKL
Slask Wroclaw
#31
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H10/11
Eurocup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A15/11
LKL
90.5Avg total
45.4Scored
45.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.642.987.5+1.757%-
Last 30 at home (17)45.241.686.9+3.653%-
Last 30 away (13)43.844.588.4-0.762%-
Last 10 (10)45.445.190.5+0.350%-
Last 5 (5)43.444.087.4-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)42.848.190.9-5.412%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)46.339.085.3+7.391%-
vs Weaker (11)44.443.087.4+1.455%-
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A03/10
LKL
Jurbarkas
#3
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H06/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Taurage
#9
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A11/10
LKL
Nevezis
#2
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A14/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#8
L
51-57
51
57
-6
A18/10
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H24/10
LKL
Taurage
#4
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H27/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#10
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A02/11
LKL
Jonava
#7
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A08/11
LKL
Siauliai
#6
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A14/11
LKL
88.5Avg total
44.3Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.944.885.7-3.930%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.643.781.3-6.113%-
Last 30 away (15)44.145.990.0-1.747%-
Last 10 (10)44.344.288.5+0.160%-
Last 5 (5)40.042.082.0-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)39.144.683.7-5.518%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)41.345.486.7-4.130%-
vs Weaker (9)42.644.386.9-1.844%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 85.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.2 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.521.1
53.4%
55.6%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.87.8
32.8%
35.3%23.4
🏀 Free throws24.620.2
82.1%
70.8%20.2
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gargzdaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gargzdai: 88.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.4 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.125.2
55.9%
55.6%50.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.18.0
34.6%
35.3%24.0
🏀 Free throws19.814.0
70.7%
70.8%14.0
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
LWWLLLWLWW
Gargzdai
LWLWWLWWWW
#5
League position
#3
-1.7
Net rating
+3.6
98.4
Offensive rating
99.4
100.1
Defensive rating
95.8
51.8%
Effective FG%
54.5%
56.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.8%
15.6%
Turnover %
13.1%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.8%
3-point %
34.6%
64.0%
Assist %
60.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence98.4 · 99.4Defence100.1 · 95.8Shooting51.8% · 54.5%3-point %32.8% · 34.6%Ball care15.6% · 13.1%Free throws0.39 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Neptunas   ■ Gargzdai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Neptunas wins
3
Gargzdai wins
DateGameScore
26/09/26Gargzdai v Neptunas87-78
23/05/26Gargzdai v Neptunas74-84
21/05/26Neptunas v Gargzdai100-73
10/05/26Neptunas v Gargzdai91-97
14/03/26Gargzdai v Neptunas81-70
13/12/25Gargzdai v Neptunas87-104
11/10/25Neptunas v Gargzdai102-74
14/01/24Neptunas v Gargzdai100-81
16/11/23Neptunas v Gargzdai84-78
06/11/23Gargzdai v Neptunas73-92
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26AZalgiris Kaunas82-87
10/11/26HSlask Wroclaw90-82
07/11/26HTaurage82-80
03/11/26ATofas79-94
31/10/26ALietkabelis79-99
28/10/26HBasket Napoli85-94
25/10/26HSiauliai110-88
20/10/26ABuducnost89-104
17/10/26AJonava84-83
13/10/26HJL Bourg93-89
Gargzdailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASiauliai82-97
08/11/26AJonava91-70
02/11/26ANevezis76-87
27/10/26HTaurage81-78
24/10/26HLietkabelis83-80
18/10/26AJuventus90-100
14/10/26ANevezis101-86
11/10/26ATaurage102-82
06/10/26HJurbarkas79-75
03/10/26ARytas105-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
LKL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL50%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %50%80%20%
Points / game84.989.880.0
Allowed / game84.981.488.4
Point differential+0.0+8.4-8.4
Avg total169.8171.2168.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%60%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Gargzdai
LKL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL60%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayWLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%75%50%
Points / game88.384.291.0
Allowed / game87.383.889.7
Point differential+1.0+0.5+1.3
Avg total175.6168.0180.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas10100100%92.676.7+15.9
2 Rytas85362%89.685.4+4.2
3 Gargzdai106460%88.387.3+1.0
4 Lietkabelis106460%79.780.3-0.6
5 Neptunas105550%84.984.9+0.0
6 Siauliai105550%84.685.6-1.0
7 Jonava93633%78.482.0-3.6
8 Juventus103730%85.588.3-2.8
9 Taurage103730%80.486.5-6.1
10 Nevezis92722%75.883.1-7.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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