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Neptunas vs Gargzdai Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 14 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 100-81
17-28 30-12 29-22 24-19
Position#6
Record7-9
FormWLLWL
Points / game83.6
Allowed / game84.0
vs
Position#12
Record3-13
FormLLLLL
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game93.7
LithuaniaLKL· Svyturio arena (Klaipeda)
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Neptunas v Gargzdai
02 May 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
31 Jan 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
21 May 2026
NEP100
GAR73
10 May 2026
NEP91
GAR97
11 Oct 2025
NEP102
GAR74
14 Jan 2024
NEP100
GAR81
16 Nov 2023
NEP84
GAR78
29 Apr 2023
NEP91
GAR86
24 Oct 2022
NEP94
GAR69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gargzdai winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Gargzdai
#9
W
84-78
84
78
+6
79avg 80
H16/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#9
W
97-74
97
74
+23
106avg 80
H20/11
LKL
Juventus
#5
L
78-92
78
92
-14
80avg 80
A23/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
88-76
88
76
+12
90avg 80
A27/11
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
86-83
86
83
+3
75avg 80
A03/12
LKL
Jonava
#8
W
69-64
69
64
+5
68avg 80
H10/12
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
L
68-70
68
70
-2
59avg 80
A17/12
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
70-77
70
77
-7
66avg 80
H23/12
LKL
Lietkabelis
#7
W
91-89
91
89
+2
91avg 80
H03/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
L
78-91
78
91
-13
71avg 80
H07/01
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-19
12-28
21-21
27-10
19-24
24-14
28-15
26-21
24-21
22-19
16-29
16-23
31-16
21-16
10-22
26-22
24-19
18-26
19-13
25-25
12-13
20-19
12-16
25-16
18-17
15-17
23-23
12-13
17-19
17-18
24-21
12-19
28-26
18-25
23-19
22-19
24-20
18-28
17-22
19-21
160.3Avg total
80.9Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)83.684.0167.6-0.444%
Season at home (8)83.482.4165.8+1.050%
Season away (8)83.885.6169.4-1.938%
Last 10 (10)80.979.4160.3+1.560%
Last 5 (5)75.278.2153.4-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)82.794.8177.4-12.111%
vs Similar (6)81.783.3165.0-1.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)90.782.1172.9+8.680%
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGargzdai
Date
Competition
Jonava
#8
W
86-80
86
80
+6
78avg 68
H12/11
LKL
Neptunas
#3
L
78-84
78
84
-6
71avg 68
A16/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
L
74-97
74
97
-23
67avg 68
H19/11
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
91-81
91
81
+10
90avg 68
A22/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Mazeikiai
#7
L
66-77
66
77
-11
52avg 68
A25/11
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
80-92
80
92
-12
72avg 68
A04/12
LKL
Siauliai
#10
L
89-94
89
94
-5
85avg 68
H11/12
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
79-110
79
110
-31
57avg 68
A16/12
LKL
Jonava
#8
L
73-105
73
105
-32
62avg 68
A28/12
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
L
82-93
82
93
-11
70avg 68
H08/01
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-19
25-25
22-18
18-18
19-24
28-12
21-21
10-27
21-20
26-20
18-25
9-32
22-19
17-26
25-18
27-18
16-18
21-20
17-17
12-22
22-23
19-25
23-18
16-26
28-25
21-19
24-24
16-26
25-22
15-37
15-22
24-29
13-24
20-21
20-32
20-28
18-15
21-30
24-24
19-24
171.1Avg total
79.8Scored
91.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)77.793.7171.4-16.019%
Season at home (8)79.893.1172.9-13.425%
Season away (8)75.694.2169.9-18.612%
Last 10 (10)79.891.3171.1-11.520%
Last 5 (5)80.698.8179.4-18.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)75.088.8163.8-13.915%
vs Similar (4)85.288.2173.5-3.050%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -7.9-7.9
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: -7.9-7.9
NeptunasGargzdai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gargzdai
#9
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H16/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#9
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H20/11
LKL
Juventus
#5
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A23/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
52-32
52
32
+20
A27/11
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A03/12
LKL
Jonava
#8
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H10/12
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A17/12
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H23/12
LKL
Lietkabelis
#7
L
46-51
46
51
-5
H03/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H07/01
LKL
81.0Avg total
40.6Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.342.585.9+0.843%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.844.486.2-2.627%-
Last 30 away (15)44.940.785.5+4.260%-
Last 10 (10)40.640.481.0+0.230%-
Last 5 (5)37.440.477.8-3.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)41.245.086.2-3.833%-
vs Similar (6)41.239.080.2+2.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)45.542.587.9+3.047%-
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jonava
#8
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H12/11
LKL
Neptunas
#3
W
47-36
47
36
+11
A16/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#4
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H19/11
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A22/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Mazeikiai
#7
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A25/11
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A04/12
LKL
Siauliai
#10
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H11/12
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
40-59
40
59
-19
A16/12
LKL
Jonava
#8
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A28/12
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H08/01
LKL
86.2Avg total
41.8Scored
44.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.644.483.1-5.827%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.945.484.3-6.629%-
Last 30 away (16)38.443.682.0-5.125%-
Last 10 (10)41.844.486.2-2.640%-
Last 5 (5)40.448.288.6-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)38.244.182.3-5.927%-
vs Similar (4)41.246.587.8-5.225%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 80.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.3 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.619.6
56.6%
55.4%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.19.6
35.4%
34.7%28.8
🏀 Free throws16.712.3
73.7%
73.2%12.3
They take 61.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gargzdaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gargzdai: 78.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.419.8
51.6%
55.4%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.97.7
29.7%
34.7%23.1
🏀 Free throws24.816.1
64.9%
73.2%16.1
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
LWLLWWWLWW
Gargzdai
LLLLLLWLLW
#6
League position
#12
+2.9
Net rating
-15.3
110.7
Offensive rating
103.0
107.8
Defensive rating
118.3
55.1%
Effective FG%
48.8%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
57.4%
18.9%
Turnover %
18.7%
30.9%
Off. rebound %
33.8%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.39
35.4%
3-point %
29.7%
70.2%
Assist %
61.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence110.7 · 103.0Defence107.8 · 118.3Shooting55.1% · 48.8%3-point %35.4% · 29.7%Ball care18.9% · 18.7%Off. rebounds30.9% · 33.8%Free throws0.27 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Neptunas   ■ Gargzdai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Neptunas wins
0
Gargzdai wins
DateGameScore
16/11/23Neptunas v Gargzdai84-78
06/11/23Gargzdai v Neptunas73-92
25/10/23Gargzdai v Neptunas87-97
29/04/23Neptunas v Gargzdai91-86
13/03/23Gargzdai v Neptunas54-73
24/10/22Neptunas v Gargzdai94-69
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/24HJuventus78-91
03/01/24HLietkabelis91-89
23/12/23HRytas70-77
17/12/23AMazeikiai68-70
10/12/23HJonava69-64
03/12/23APieno Zvaigzdes86-83
27/11/23AZalgiris Kaunas88-76
23/11/23AJuventus78-92
20/11/23HNevezis97-74
16/11/23HGargzdai84-78
Gargzdailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/24HMazeikiai82-93
28/12/23AJonava73-105
16/12/23ARytas79-110
11/12/23HSiauliai89-94
04/12/23ANevezis80-92
25/11/23AMazeikiai66-77
22/11/23AMazeikiai91-81
19/11/23HJuventus74-97
16/11/23ANeptunas78-84
12/11/23HJonava86-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
LKL 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL44%
HomeLWWLL50%
AwayWLWWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %44%50%38%
Points / game83.683.483.8
Allowed / game84.082.485.6
Point differential-0.4+1.0-1.9
Avg total167.6165.8169.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%38%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %6%0%12%
Gargzdai
LKL 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL19%
HomeLWLLL25%
AwayLLLLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %19%25%12%
Points / game77.779.875.6
Allowed / game93.793.194.2
Point differential-16.0-13.4-18.6
Avg total171.4172.9169.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%12%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rytas1614288%91.877.8+13.9
2 Zalgiris Kaunas1614288%81.370.5+10.8
3 Juventus1712571%89.277.2+12.0
4 BC Wolves1712571%83.077.7+5.3
5 Lietkabelis159660%84.182.2+1.9
6 Neptunas167944%83.684.0-0.4
7 Jonava1771041%81.483.3-1.9
8 Mazeikiai156940%76.081.1-5.1
9 Pieno Zvaigzdes1551033%87.392.7-5.5
10 Siauliai1741324%80.786.6-5.9
11 Nevezis1741324%82.892.4-9.6
12 Gargzdai1631319%77.793.7-16.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas17302924100
Gargzdai2812221981
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