PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Neptunas vs Gargzdai Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 16:10
Final 102-74
28-18 19-18 29-16 26-22
Position#3
Record2-1
FormWLLWL
Points / game86.3
Allowed / game84.3
vs
Position#5
Record1-2
FormLLLWW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game88.3
LithuaniaLKL· Svyturio Arena
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Neptunas v Gargzdai
02 May 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
31 Jan 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
21 May 2026
NEP100
GAR73
10 May 2026
NEP91
GAR97
11 Oct 2025
NEP102
GAR74
14 Jan 2024
NEP100
GAR81
16 Nov 2023
NEP84
GAR78
29 Apr 2023
NEP91
GAR86
24 Oct 2022
NEP94
GAR69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gargzdai winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Mazeikiai
#10
W
85-79
85
79
+6
84avg 81
H14/05
LKL
Juventus
#6
W
100-88
100
88
+12
102avg 81
H17/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
W
98-93 OT
98
93
+5
88avg 81
A20/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
75-88
75
88
-13
66avg 81
A24/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
70-98
70
98
-28
64avg 81
H26/05
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
W
96-84
96
84
+12
93avg 81
A20/09
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
71-84
71
84
-13
61avg 81
H27/09
LKL
Slask Wroclaw
#18
L
85-95
85
95
-10
70avg 81
A30/09
Eurocup
Nevezis
#9
W
92-85
92
85
+7
93avg 81
A04/10
LKL
Cluj-Napoca
#11
L
102-107
102
107
-5
100avg 81
H07/10
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
21-14
26-28
15-17
25-15
21-28
28-28
26-17
18-18
13-20
18-31
32-12
14-21
20-22
21-24
20-21
22-22
13-27
17-27
18-22
26-21
18-18
29-22
23-23
16-23
17-20
17-20
21-21
21-28
24-19
24-23
16-25
22-16
28-27
25-13
17-29
28-19
28-29
22-29
24-30
177.5Avg total
87.4Scored
90.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)86.384.3170.7+2.067%
Season at home (1)71.084.0155.0-13.00%
Season away (2)94.084.5178.5+9.5100%
Last 10 (10)87.490.1177.5-2.750%
Last 5 (5)89.291.0180.2-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)80.891.6172.4-10.819%
vs Similar (9)91.191.3182.4-0.244%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)91.479.8171.2+11.680%
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGargzdai
Date
Competition
Siauliai
#10
L
89-94
89
94
-5
no box
H11/12
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
79-110
79
110
-31
no box
A16/12
LKL
Jonava
#8
L
73-105
73
105
-32
no box
A28/12
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
L
82-93
82
93
-11
no box
H08/01
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
81-100
81
100
-19
no box
A14/01
LKL
Siauliai
#4
L
85-93
85
93
-8
71avg 73
H21/09
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
73-99
73
99
-26
49avg 73
A24/09
LKL
Juventus
#4
L
68-72
68
72
-4
60avg 73
H01/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Jonava
#8
W
103-73
103
73
+30
91avg 73
H04/10
LKL
Nevezis
#5
W
94-72
94
72
+22
94avg 73
A08/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-25
21-19
24-24
16-26
25-22
15-37
15-22
24-29
13-24
20-21
20-32
20-28
18-15
21-30
24-24
19-24
28-17
12-30
22-29
19-24
21-23
22-18
23-24
19-28
19-29
16-31
21-14
17-25
24-12
18-18
15-22
11-20
32-8
27-21
21-23
23-21
32-23
24-16
17-10
21-23
173.8Avg total
82.7Scored
91.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)87.088.3175.3-1.333%
Season at home (2)94.083.0177.0+11.050%
Season away (1)73.099.0172.0-26.00%
Last 10 (10)82.791.1173.8-8.420%
Last 5 (5)84.681.8166.4+2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)75.892.3168.1-16.512%
vs Similar (5)86.682.2168.8+4.460%
vs Weaker (1)103.073.0176.0+30.0100%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +4.2+4.2Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: -4.5-4.5Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -5.9-5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +4.2+4.2Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: -4.5-4.5Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -5.9-5.9
NeptunasGargzdai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mazeikiai
#10
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H14/05
LKL
Juventus
#6
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H17/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A20/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A24/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H26/05
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A20/09
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H27/09
LKL
Slask Wroclaw
#18
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A30/09
Eurocup
Nevezis
#9
W
50-43
50
43
+7
A04/10
LKL
Cluj-Napoca
#11
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H07/10
Eurocup
84.5Avg total
41.8Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.744.184.8-3.443%-
Last 30 at home (17)42.243.986.1-1.853%-
Last 30 away (13)38.844.483.2-5.631%-
Last 10 (10)41.842.784.5-0.950%-
Last 5 (5)45.644.089.6+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.844.883.5-6.038%-
vs Similar (9)41.046.287.2-5.233%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)46.438.484.8+8.080%-
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siauliai
#10
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H11/12
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
40-59
40
59
-19
A16/12
LKL
Jonava
#8
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A28/12
LKL
Mazeikiai
#7
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H08/01
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
40-47
40
47
-7
A14/01
LKL
Siauliai
#4
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H21/09
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
35-60
35
60
-25
A24/09
LKL
Juventus
#4
W
42-30
42
30
+12
H01/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Jonava
#8
W
59-29
59
29
+30
H04/10
LKL
Nevezis
#5
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A08/10
King Mindaugas Cup
87.5Avg total
43.6Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.545.085.5-4.533%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.344.385.7-3.047%-
Last 30 away (15)39.745.785.4-5.920%-
Last 10 (10)43.643.987.5-0.350%-
Last 5 (5)47.039.886.8+7.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)38.546.585.0-8.121%-
vs Similar (5)46.840.887.6+6.080%-
vs Weaker (1)59.029.088.0+30.0100%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 86.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.822.5
58.0%
55.4%45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.79.2
32.1%
35.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws19.713.9
70.6%
74.3%13.9
They take 67.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gargzdaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gargzdai: 81.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.022.9
54.5%
55.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.87.4
29.8%
35.5%22.2
🏀 Free throws22.713.9
61.2%
74.3%13.9
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
LWLLWLLWWW
Gargzdai
WWLLLLLLLL
#3
League position
#5
-4.0
Net rating
-10.7
112.7
Offensive rating
107.0
116.8
Defensive rating
117.7
53.8%
Effective FG%
50.9%
56.2%
Opp. effective FG%
55.7%
16.4%
Turnover %
16.0%
32.6%
Off. rebound %
31.2%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.34
32.1%
3-point %
29.8%
69.7%
Assist %
57.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence112.7 · 107.0Defence116.8 · 117.7Shooting53.8% · 50.9%3-point %32.1% · 29.8%Ball care16.4% · 16.0%Off. rebounds32.6% · 31.2%Free throws0.29 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Neptunas   ■ Gargzdai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Neptunas wins
0
Gargzdai wins
DateGameScore
14/01/24Neptunas v Gargzdai100-81
16/11/23Neptunas v Gargzdai84-78
06/11/23Gargzdai v Neptunas73-92
25/10/23Gargzdai v Neptunas87-97
29/04/23Neptunas v Gargzdai91-86
13/03/23Gargzdai v Neptunas54-73
24/10/22Neptunas v Gargzdai94-69
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/10/25HCluj-Napoca102-107
04/10/25ANevezis92-85
30/09/25ASlask Wroclaw85-95
27/09/25HZalgiris Kaunas71-84
20/09/25ALietkabelis96-84
26/05/25HZalgiris Kaunas70-98
24/05/25AZalgiris Kaunas75-88
20/05/25AJonava98-93 OT
17/05/25HJuventus100-88
14/05/25HMazeikiai85-79
Gargzdailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/10/25ANevezis94-72
04/10/25HJonava103-73
01/10/25HJuventus68-72
24/09/25ARytas73-99
21/09/25HSiauliai85-93
14/01/24ANeptunas81-100
08/01/24HMazeikiai82-93
28/12/23AJonava73-105
16/12/23ARytas79-110
11/12/23HSiauliai89-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
LKL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeL0%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%0%100%
Points / game86.371.094.0
Allowed / game84.384.084.5
Point differential+2.0-13.0+9.5
Avg total170.7155.0178.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Gargzdai
LKL 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeLW50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game87.094.073.0
Allowed / game88.383.099.0
Point differential-1.3+11.0-26.0
Avg total175.3177.0172.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas440100%90.572.2+18.2
2 Rytas43175%89.277.8+11.5
3 Siauliai43175%86.284.0+2.2
4 Neptunas32167%86.384.3+2.0
5 Lietkabelis53260%90.883.4+7.4
6 Gargzdai31233%87.088.3-1.3
7 Nevezis41325%78.889.5-10.8
8 Juventus3030%79.093.3-14.3
9 Jonava4040%75.896.0-20.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas28192926102
Gargzdai1818162274
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.