PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Neptunas vs Gargzdai Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 29 Apr 2023
Tip-off: 14:20
Final 91-86
20-19 22-28 18-18 31-21
Position#7
Record15-15
FormLWWWW
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game81.6
vs
Position#11
Record6-24
FormLWLLL
Points / game76.2
Allowed / game83.9
LithuaniaLKL
Domestic2022-23
Meetings · Neptunas v Gargzdai
02 May 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
31 Jan 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
21 May 2026
NEP100
GAR73
10 May 2026
NEP91
GAR97
11 Oct 2025
NEP102
GAR74
14 Jan 2024
NEP100
GAR81
16 Nov 2023
NEP84
GAR78
29 Apr 2023
NEP91
GAR86
24 Oct 2022
NEP94
GAR69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gargzdai winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Siauliai
#9
W
93-79
93
79
+14
91avg 72
H06/03
LKL
Gargzdai
#11
W
73-54
73
54
+19
68avg 72
A13/03
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
80-91
80
91
-11
76avg 72
H19/03
LKL
Jonava
#6
W
76-70
76
70
+6
75avg 72
H26/03
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
L
73-86
73
86
-13
70avg 72
H03/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
86-90
86
90
-4
no box
H10/04
LKL
Siauliai
#9
W
89-87
89
87
+2
86avg 72
A15/04
LKL
Nevezis
#8
W
97-91
97
91
+6
96avg 72
H18/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#10
W
87-78
87
78
+9
82avg 72
A22/04
LKL
Prienai
#12
W
94-84
94
84
+10
98avg 72
A25/04
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-15
19-18
27-32
19-14
10-17
21-19
19-10
23-8
17-23
18-13
33-22
12-33
18-18
16-11
24-22
18-19
19-31
17-22
17-14
20-19
18-25
29-26
19-19
20-20
18-19
28-15
26-25
17-28
15-27
27-24
34-18
21-22
18-20
27-19
21-13
21-26
26-18
24-32
22-16
22-18
165.8Avg total
84.8Scored
81.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)80.181.6161.7-1.550%
Season at home (15)84.883.5168.3+1.353%
Season away (15)75.479.6155.0-4.247%
Last 10 (10)84.881.0165.8+3.870%
Last 5 (5)90.686.0176.6+4.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)74.782.0156.7-7.322%
vs Similar (10)81.380.7162.0+0.670%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)88.979.5168.4+9.573%
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGargzdai
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#4
L
73-82
73
82
-9
63avg 70
A04/03
LKL
Neptunas
#7
L
54-73
54
73
-19
45avg 70
H13/03
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
85-82
85
82
+3
82avg 70
H21/03
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
70-96
70
96
-26
58avg 70
A26/03
LKL
Nevezis
#8
L
73-87
73
87
-14
64avg 70
H02/04
LKL
Prienai
#12
L
77-90
77
90
-13
no box
A11/04
LKL
Juventus
#5
W
77-76
77
76
+1
74avg 70
H16/04
LKL
Jonava
#6
L
65-67
65
67
-2
no box
A18/04
LKL
Siauliai
#9
L
56-60
56
60
-4
60avg 70
H24/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#10
L
78-89
78
89
-11
69avg 70
A26/04
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
19-27
15-15
17-23
17-10
19-21
10-19
8-23
23-20
22-17
27-25
13-20
19-27
24-20
14-29
13-20
13-21
16-30
25-14
19-22
20-25
12-22
28-21
17-22
14-14
26-29
18-9
19-24
15-14
16-10
19-18
15-25
15-19
13-9
20-17
8-15
20-27
20-18
22-23
16-21
151.0Avg total
70.8Scored
80.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)76.283.9160.1-7.720%
Season at home (15)71.578.3149.8-6.927%
Season away (15)80.989.5170.3-8.613%
Last 10 (10)70.880.2151.0-9.420%
Last 5 (5)70.676.4147.0-5.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)74.684.7159.3-10.112%
vs Similar (6)82.580.7163.2+1.850%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +5.1+5.1Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: -7.0-7.0
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -2.6-2.6Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +5.1+5.1Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: -7.0-7.0
NeptunasGargzdai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siauliai
#9
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H06/03
LKL
Gargzdai
#11
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A13/03
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H19/03
LKL
Jonava
#6
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H26/03
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
L
36-53
36
53
-17
H03/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H10/04
LKL
Siauliai
#9
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A15/04
LKL
Nevezis
#8
L
42-51
42
51
-9
H18/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#10
W
45-39
45
39
+6
A22/04
LKL
Prienai
#12
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A25/04
LKL
82.5Avg total
41.3Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.440.280.6+0.250%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.943.485.3-1.547%-
Last 30 away (15)38.937.075.9+1.953%-
Last 10 (10)41.341.282.5+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)46.045.091.0+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)38.240.879.0-2.633%-
vs Similar (10)40.740.581.2+0.260%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)41.839.581.3+2.455%-
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A04/03
LKL
Neptunas
#7
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H13/03
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H21/03
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A26/03
LKL
Nevezis
#8
L
29-51
29
51
-22
H02/04
LKL
Prienai
#12
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A11/04
LKL
Juventus
#5
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H16/04
LKL
Jonava
#6
W
31-24
31
24
+7
A18/04
LKL
Siauliai
#9
D
28-28
28
28
+0
H24/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#10
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A26/04
LKL
76.2Avg total
36.5Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.142.279.3-5.020%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.539.474.9-3.927%-
Last 30 away (15)38.744.983.7-6.213%-
Last 10 (10)36.539.776.2-3.230%-
Last 5 (5)34.237.471.6-3.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)36.742.479.0-5.717%-
vs Similar (6)39.041.380.3-2.333%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.320.7
55.5%
54.9%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.19.3
35.6%
35.0%27.9
🏀 Free throws20.214.7
72.8%
74.2%14.7
They take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gargzdaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gargzdai: 70.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.717.3
47.1%
54.9%34.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.97.5
31.4%
35.0%22.5
🏀 Free throws19.313.1
67.9%
74.2%13.1
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Apr 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
WWWWLLWLWW
Gargzdai
LLLWLLLWLL
#7
League position
#11
+5.3
Net rating
-12.6
116.3
Offensive rating
96.5
111.1
Defensive rating
109.1
54.7%
Effective FG%
47.1%
51.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.1%
15.2%
Turnover %
22.1%
31.6%
Off. rebound %
32.4%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.32
35.6%
3-point %
31.4%
72.7%
Assist %
65.3%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence116.3 · 96.5Defence111.1 · 109.1Shooting54.7% · 47.1%3-point %35.6% · 31.4%Ball care15.2% · 22.1%Off. rebounds31.6% · 32.4%Free throws0.32 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)70% · 20%
■ Neptunas   ■ Gargzdai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Neptunas wins
0
Gargzdai wins
DateGameScore
13/03/23Gargzdai v Neptunas54-73
24/10/22Neptunas v Gargzdai94-69
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/04/23APrienai94-84
22/04/23APieno Zvaigzdes87-78
18/04/23HNevezis97-91
15/04/23ASiauliai89-87
10/04/23HRytas86-90
03/04/23HLietkabelis73-86
26/03/23HJonava76-70
19/03/23HZalgiris Kaunas80-91
13/03/23AGargzdai73-54
06/03/23HSiauliai93-79
Gargzdailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/04/23APieno Zvaigzdes78-89
24/04/23HSiauliai56-60
18/04/23AJonava65-67
16/04/23HJuventus77-76
11/04/23APrienai77-90
02/04/23HNevezis73-87
26/03/23AZalgiris Kaunas70-96
21/03/23HBC Wolves85-82
13/03/23HNeptunas54-73
04/03/23ALietkabelis73-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
LKL 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW50%
HomeLWLLW53%
AwayLWWWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %50%53%47%
Points / game80.184.875.4
Allowed / game81.683.579.6
Point differential-1.5+1.3-4.2
Avg total161.7168.3155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%20%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %7%7%7%
Gargzdai
LKL 2022-23
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL20%
HomeLWLWL27%
AwayLLLLL13%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %20%27%13%
Points / game76.271.580.9
Allowed / game83.978.389.5
Point differential-7.7-6.9-8.6
Avg total160.1149.8170.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%7%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won27% (11)38% (8)0% (3)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas2925486%86.771.4+15.3
2 Rytas3024680%92.782.7+9.9
3 BC Wolves3021970%85.578.3+7.2
4 Lietkabelis30201067%85.581.6+3.9
5 Juventus30161453%87.186.6+0.5
6 Jonava30161453%79.579.9-0.4
7 Neptunas30151550%80.181.6-1.5
8 Nevezis30131743%86.788.2-1.5
9 Siauliai30121840%82.586.4-3.8
10 Pieno Zvaigzdes3082227%78.889.5-10.7
11 Gargzdai3062420%76.283.9-7.7
12 Prienai3142713%78.789.1-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas2022183191
Gargzdai1928182186
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.