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Neptunas vs Gargzdai Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 16 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 16:30
Final 84-78
24-19 12-28 21-21 27-10
Position#3
Record4-0
FormWLWWL
Points / game96.2
Allowed / game85.8
vs
Position#9
Record1-3
FormLLLLW
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game87.2
LithuaniaKing Mindaugas Cup· Svyturio arena (Klaipeda)
Other2023-24
Meetings · Neptunas v Gargzdai
02 May 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
31 Jan 2027
NEP v GAR
upcoming
21 May 2026
NEP100
GAR73
10 May 2026
NEP91
GAR97
11 Oct 2025
NEP102
GAR74
14 Jan 2024
NEP100
GAR81
16 Nov 2023
NEP84
GAR78
29 Apr 2023
NEP91
GAR86
24 Oct 2022
NEP94
GAR69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gargzdai winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
BC Wolves
#3
L
66-98
66
98
-32
57avg 77
H08/10
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
87-86 OT
87
86
+1
no box
A11/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
112-87
112
87
+25
116avg 77
H15/10
LKL
Juventus
#5
W
92-90
92
90
+2
88avg 77
H18/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Mazeikiai
#7
L
84-87
84
87
-3
80avg 77
H23/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#9
W
97-87
97
87
+10
97avg 77
A25/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Jonava
#8
L
77-88
77
88
-11
61avg 77
A29/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#12
W
92-73
92
73
+19
86avg 77
A06/11
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
109-80
109
80
+29
112avg 77
H08/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Rytas
#2
L
75-93
75
93
-18
74avg 77
A11/11
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-26
11-23
17-18
16-31
19-18
26-15
14-19
17-24
28-20
30-25
31-21
23-21
25-24
18-24
24-22
25-20
14-23
24-23
26-10
20-31
33-16
25-19
11-27
28-25
21-21
23-17
23-34
10-16
23-23
22-14
29-16
18-20
26-22
33-20
25-23
25-15
28-28
10-22
20-24
17-19
176.0Avg total
89.1Scored
86.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)96.285.8182.0+10.5100%
Season at home (2)100.585.0185.5+15.5100%
Season away (2)92.086.5178.5+5.5100%
Last 10 (10)89.186.9176.0+2.260%
Last 5 (5)90.084.2174.2+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)81.095.5176.5-14.50%
vs Similar (9)88.485.3173.8+3.178%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)91.681.1172.7+10.582%
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGargzdai
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#5
L
66-84
66
84
-18
51avg 68
A07/10
LKL
Juventus
#5
L
61-84
61
84
-23
44avg 68
A12/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#9
W
97-84
97
84
+13
98avg 68
H16/10
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
95-93
95
93
+2
92avg 68
H19/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Siauliai
#10
W
97-79
97
79
+18
91avg 68
A22/10
LKL
Neptunas
#3
L
87-97
87
97
-10
77avg 68
H25/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
L
76-103
76
103
-27
61avg 68
A30/10
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
73-92
73
92
-19
71avg 68
H06/11
LKL
Juventus
#5
L
66-75
66
75
-9
58avg 68
H09/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Jonava
#8
W
86-80
86
80
+6
78avg 68
H12/11
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-25
18-20
20-15
12-24
11-17
22-24
9-17
19-26
23-23
23-25
23-24
28-12
28-24
26-25
23-23
18-21
22-24
33-18
22-15
20-22
16-33
19-25
27-11
25-28
18-23
22-29
13-31
23-20
23-23
14-22
16-29
20-18
15-7
19-30
19-18
13-20
21-19
25-25
22-18
18-18
167.5Avg total
80.4Scored
87.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)77.287.2164.5-10.025%
Season at home (3)82.788.3171.0-5.733%
Season away (1)61.084.0145.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)80.487.1167.5-6.740%
Last 5 (5)77.689.4167.0-11.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)74.887.1161.8-12.323%
vs Similar (4)82.285.2167.5-3.050%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -1.3-1.3
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: -1.3-1.3
NeptunasGargzdai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BC Wolves
#3
L
33-49
33
49
-16
H08/10
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
45-33
45
33
+12
A11/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
58-45
58
45
+13
H15/10
LKL
Juventus
#5
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H18/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Mazeikiai
#7
L
38-46
38
46
-8
H23/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#9
W
58-35
58
35
+23
A25/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Jonava
#8
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A29/10
LKL
Gargzdai
#12
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A06/11
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
59-42
59
42
+17
H08/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Rytas
#2
L
38-50
38
50
-12
A11/11
LKL
88.4Avg total
46.1Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.943.186.0-0.243%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.745.287.9-2.531%-
Last 30 away (14)43.140.683.8+2.557%-
Last 10 (10)46.142.388.4+3.860%-
Last 5 (5)48.840.489.2+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)38.846.885.6-8.020%-
vs Similar (9)42.940.783.6+2.256%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)46.641.688.3+5.055%-
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#5
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A07/10
LKL
Juventus
#5
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A12/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#9
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H16/10
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H19/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Siauliai
#10
W
55-42
55
42
+13
A22/10
LKL
Neptunas
#3
L
35-58
35
58
-23
H25/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A30/10
LKL
Neptunas
#6
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H06/11
LKL
Juventus
#5
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H09/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Jonava
#8
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H12/11
LKL
87.5Avg total
41.4Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.043.881.8-5.727%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.344.081.3-6.733%-
Last 30 away (15)38.843.582.3-4.720%-
Last 10 (10)41.446.187.5-4.730%-
Last 5 (5)38.447.285.6-8.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)37.543.881.3-6.323%-
vs Similar (4)41.543.885.2-2.250%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 87.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.3 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.723.7
61.2%
56.9%47.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.4
32.7%
34.9%25.2
🏀 Free throws22.215.2
68.5%
74.5%15.2
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gargzdaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gargzdai: 79.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.3 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.020.7
50.5%
56.9%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.27.5
32.3%
34.9%22.5
🏀 Free throws22.115.9
71.9%
74.5%15.9
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
LWWLWLWWWL
Gargzdai
WLLLLWWWLL
#3
League position
#9
+1.6
Net rating
-8.4
116.0
Offensive rating
102.6
114.4
Defensive rating
111.0
56.4%
Effective FG%
49.8%
55.7%
Opp. effective FG%
55.3%
14.8%
Turnover %
17.5%
28.2%
Off. rebound %
25.7%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.34
32.7%
3-point %
32.3%
72.0%
Assist %
61.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence116.0 · 102.6Defence114.4 · 111.0Shooting56.4% · 49.8%3-point %32.7% · 32.3%Ball care14.8% · 17.5%Off. rebounds28.2% · 25.7%Free throws0.34 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Neptunas   ■ Gargzdai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Neptunas wins
0
Gargzdai wins
DateGameScore
06/11/23Gargzdai v Neptunas73-92
25/10/23Gargzdai v Neptunas87-97
29/04/23Neptunas v Gargzdai91-86
13/03/23Gargzdai v Neptunas54-73
24/10/22Neptunas v Gargzdai94-69
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/23ARytas75-93
08/11/23HMazeikiai109-80
06/11/23AGargzdai92-73
29/10/23AJonava77-88
25/10/23AGargzdai97-87
23/10/23HMazeikiai84-87
18/10/23HJuventus92-90
15/10/23HPieno Zvaigzdes112-87
11/10/23AMazeikiai87-86 OT
08/10/23HBC Wolves66-98
Gargzdailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/23HJonava86-80
09/11/23HJuventus66-75
06/11/23HNeptunas73-92
30/10/23APieno Zvaigzdes76-103
25/10/23HNeptunas87-97
22/10/23ASiauliai97-79
19/10/23HMazeikiai95-93
16/10/23HNevezis97-84
12/10/23AJuventus61-84
07/10/23ALietkabelis66-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
King Mindaugas Cup 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game96.2100.592.0
Allowed / game85.885.086.5
Point differential+10.5+15.5+5.5
Avg total182.0185.5178.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %25%0%50%
Gargzdai
King Mindaugas Cup 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeWLL33%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %25%33%0%
Points / game77.282.761.0
Allowed / game87.288.384.0
Point differential-10.0-5.7-23.0
Avg total164.5171.0145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Neptunas440100%96.285.8+10.5
2 Siauliai54180%93.086.0+7.0
3 Juventus53260%85.077.0+8.0
4 Nevezis63350%87.585.3+2.2
5 BC Olimpas Palanga63350%76.279.0-2.8
6 Gargzdai41325%77.287.2-10.0
7 Pieno Zvaigzdes51420%87.093.2-6.2
8 Mazeikiai51420%85.093.4-8.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas2412212784
Gargzdai1928211078
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