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Pistoia vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 05 May 2024
Tip-off: 16:15
Final 78-96
19-26 23-28 15-23 21-19
Position#10
Record15-14
FormWWLLW
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game83.4
Pistoia
Italy
vs
Varese 🏆
Italy
Position#12
Record11-18
FormLWLWL
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game90.5
ItalyLega ARound 30· PalaCarrara
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Pistoia v Varese
19 Jan 2025
PIS111
VAR96
05 May 2024
PIS78
VAR96
17 Apr 2020
PIS v VAR
upcoming
06 Jan 2019
PIS71
VAR65
04 Mar 2018
PIS74
VAR65
30 Oct 2016
PIS97
VAR64
13 Dec 2015
PIS67
VAR65
03 May 2015
PIS87
VAR103
08 Dec 2013
PIS89
VAR76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pistoia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Venezia
#4
L
71-86
71
86
-15
4avg 70
A14/02
Italian Cup
Tortona
#9
W
84-71
84
71
+13
75avg 70
H03/03
Lega A
Cremona
#11
W
74-67
74
67
+7
70avg 70
A10/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#7
W
95-93 OT
95
93
+2
no box
A16/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
83-84
83
84
-1
71avg 70
H23/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
W
100-93
100
93
+7
98avg 70
A01/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
W
83-82
83
82
+1
78avg 70
H07/04
Lega A
Pesaro
#16
L
82-89
82
89
-7
73avg 70
A13/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#15
L
90-96
90
96
-6
87avg 70
H21/04
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
105-80
105
80
+25
100avg 70
A28/04
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-19
18-17
16-25
21-25
23-17
22-13
12-24
27-17
18-17
21-11
17-19
18-20
21-18
17-23
21-20
20-18
19-24
19-19
22-15
23-26
14-26
27-29
27-28
32-10
16-25
24-19
30-18
13-20
16-29
24-21
24-22
18-17
25-27
24-24
26-15
15-30
24-20
31-22
21-26
29-12
170.8Avg total
86.7Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)81.283.4164.6-2.252%
Season at home (14)76.977.5154.4-0.650%
Season away (15)85.288.9174.1-3.753%
Last 10 (10)86.784.1170.8+2.660%
Last 5 (5)92.088.0180.0+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)80.583.7164.2-3.258%
vs Similar ◀ (17)81.683.2164.8-1.547%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Nymburk
#10
W
91-76
91
76
+15
89avg 81
H13/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#5
L
80-113
80
113
-33
71avg 81
A17/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
83-90
83
90
-7
77avg 81
A24/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
W
81-80
81
80
+1
78avg 81
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
L
92-95
92
95
-3
86avg 81
H30/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
L
73-81
73
81
-8
65avg 81
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Basket Napoli
#7
W
113-79
113
79
+34
114avg 81
H07/04
Lega A
Scafati
#14
L
90-102
90
102
-12
84avg 81
A14/04
Lega A
Sassari
#8
W
112-88
112
88
+24
108avg 81
A21/04
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
95-100
95
100
-5
82avg 81
H28/04
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-15
21-20
22-19
24-22
15-26
29-25
22-30
14-32
15-21
16-20
28-27
24-22
19-26
29-19
18-25
15-10
22-21
26-23
19-28
25-23
21-26
18-21
12-12
22-22
27-26
27-17
21-20
38-16
17-27
30-23
24-23
19-29
35-25
29-16
27-28
21-19
19-31
30-27
25-19
21-23
181.4Avg total
91.0Scored
90.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)87.090.5177.4-3.538%
Season at home (15)87.784.8172.5+2.947%
Season away (14)86.196.6182.7-10.429%
Last 10 (10)91.090.4181.4+0.640%
Last 5 (5)96.690.0186.6+6.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)79.488.3167.8-8.922%
vs Similar ◀ (17)91.887.4179.2+4.559%
vs Weaker (4)83.881.0164.8+2.850%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +0.5+0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +0.5+0.5
PistoiaVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezia
#4
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A14/02
Italian Cup
Tortona
#9
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H03/03
Lega A
Cremona
#11
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A10/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#7
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A16/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H23/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
41-55
41
55
-14
A01/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H07/04
Lega A
Pesaro
#16
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A13/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#15
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H21/04
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
55-42
55
42
+13
A28/04
Lega A
83.9Avg total
41.9Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.343.482.7-4.137%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.140.578.6-2.436%-
Last 30 away (16)40.345.986.2-5.638%-
Last 10 (10)41.942.083.9-0.130%-
Last 5 (5)45.048.493.4-3.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)37.943.281.2-5.342%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)40.543.984.5-3.435%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nymburk
#10
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H13/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#5
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A17/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A24/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H30/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Basket Napoli
#7
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H07/04
Lega A
Scafati
#14
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A14/04
Lega A
Sassari
#8
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A21/04
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
49-58
49
58
-9
H28/04
Lega A
92.4Avg total
46.9Scored
45.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.044.288.2-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.442.588.9+3.967%-
Last 30 away (15)41.545.987.5-4.427%-
Last 10 (10)46.945.592.4+1.450%-
Last 5 (5)50.647.898.4+2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)41.948.390.2-6.433%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)45.542.287.7+3.253%-
vs Weaker (4)42.243.285.5-1.050%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 87.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.821.8
54.8%
53.1%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.010.6
40.8%
35.7%31.8
🏀 Free throws17.412.5
71.8%
76.3%12.5
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 90.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀45%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.916.7
55.9%
53.1%33.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.413.6
42.0%
35.7%40.8
🏀 Free throws20.115.9
79.1%
76.3%15.9
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 May 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pistoia
WLLWWLWWWL
Varese
LWLWLLWLLW
#10
League position
#12
-0.1
Net rating
+0.9
111.7
Offensive rating
117.3
111.9
Defensive rating
116.4
57.3%
Effective FG%
59.6%
52.2%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
14.1%
Turnover %
16.0%
18.8%
Off. rebound %
20.5%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.32
40.8%
3-point %
42.0%
49.1%
Assist %
66.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 117.3Defence111.9 · 116.4Shooting57.3% · 59.6%3-point %40.8% · 42.0%Ball care14.1% · 16.0%Off. rebounds18.8% · 20.5%Free throws0.26 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Pistoia   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Pistoia wins
6
Varese wins
DateGameScore
04/10/23Varese v Pistoia83-82
26/12/19Varese v Pistoia91-60
05/05/19Varese v Pistoia98-70
06/01/19Pistoia v Varese71-65
04/03/18Pistoia v Varese74-65
29/10/17Varese v Pistoia81-73
27/02/17Varese v Pistoia75-70
30/10/16Pistoia v Varese97-64
03/04/16Varese v Pistoia91-78
13/12/15Pistoia v Varese67-65
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/24ATrento105-80
21/04/24HBrindisi90-96
13/04/24APesaro82-89
07/04/24HReggiana83-82
01/04/24AVirtus Bologna100-93
23/03/24HTreviso83-84
16/03/24ABasket Napoli95-93 OT
10/03/24ACremona74-67
03/03/24HTortona84-71
14/02/24AVenezia71-86
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/24HTreviso95-100
21/04/24ASassari112-88
14/04/24AScafati90-102
07/04/24HBasket Napoli113-79
03/04/24ABahcesehir Kol.73-81
30/03/24HBrescia92-95
27/03/24HBahcesehir Kol.81-80
24/03/24ATortona83-90
17/03/24AReggiana80-113
13/03/24HNymburk91-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pistoia
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW52%
HomeLWLWL50%
AwayWWWLW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %52%50%53%
Points / game81.276.985.2
Allowed / game83.477.588.9
Point differential-2.2-0.6-3.7
Avg total164.6154.4174.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%7%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (12)57% (7)80% (5)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Varese
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL38%
HomeWWLWL47%
AwayLLLLW29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291514
Win %38%47%29%
Points / game87.087.786.1
Allowed / game90.584.896.6
Point differential-3.5+2.9-10.4
Avg total177.4172.5182.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%27%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)29% (7)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna2921872%88.377.4+10.9
2 Olimpia Milano2921872%80.774.6+6.1
3 Brescia2920969%87.078.6+8.5
4 Venezia29181162%82.778.5+4.1
5 Reggiana29161355%80.779.7+1.0
6 Trento29151452%84.084.4-0.4
7 Pistoia29151452%81.283.4-2.2
8 Tortona29141548%80.679.0+1.6
9 Basket Napoli29131645%85.786.9-1.2
10 Sassari29131645%79.383.4-4.1
11 Cremona29121741%80.579.9+0.6
12 Scafati29121741%82.487.0-4.7
13 Varese29111838%87.090.5-3.5
14 Treviso29111838%80.985.2-4.3
15 Brindisi29101934%75.981.4-5.6
16 Pesaro29101934%80.687.4-6.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pistoia1923152178
Varese2628231996
← all games of the day
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