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Real Madrid vs Bayern Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 15 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 19:45
Scheduled
Position#5
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game90.1
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.3/10
Above normal
4.2/10
Below normal
Position#18
Record3-8
FormWWWLW
Points / game86.8
Allowed / game95.2
EuropeEuroleagueRound 17· Movistar Arena
European cup2026
Meetings · Real Madrid v Bayern
15 Dec 2026
MAD v BAY
upcoming
26 Feb 2026
MAD93
BAY70
18 Apr 2025
MAD93
BAY71
03 Jan 2025
MAD88
BAY76
14 Dec 2023
MAD88
BAY73
06 Apr 2023
MAD79
BAY67
08 Apr 2022
MAD88
BAY97
29 Oct 2020
MAD100
BAY82
22 Feb 2019
MAD91
BAY78
05 Nov 2015
MAD101
BAY99
15 Jan 2014
MAD111
BAY87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Bayern win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 90
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#9
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 90
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 90
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 90
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 90
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 90
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 90
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#10
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)98.590.1188.5+8.464%
Season at home (5)101.888.6190.4+13.280%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Bayern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayernLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBayern
Date
Competition
Dubai
#9
L
91-107
91
107
-16
86avg 82
H22/10
Euroleague
Hamburg
#15
W
96-77
96
77
+19
102avg 82
H25/10
BBL
Barcelona
#4
L
84-88
84
88
-4
75avg 82
H27/10
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#6
L
73-103
73
103
-30
65avg 82
A29/10
Euroleague
Rostock
#3
L
67-69
67
69
-2
59avg 82
A01/11
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#16
W
108-66
108
66
+42
no box
H03/11
BBL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
99-95
99
95
+4
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
Wurzburg
#9
W
94-73
94
73
+21
no box
A08/11
BBL
Valencia
#3
L
87-102
87
102
-15
no box
A12/11
Euroleague
Syntainics MBC
#5
W
91-61
91
61
+30
no box
H15/11
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-29
22-34
31-19
24-25
27-23
15-18
29-12
25-24
17-21
25-20
19-23
23-24
15-19
16-29
23-31
19-24
15-24
25-14
13-12
14-19
22-18
35-20
28-17
23-11
20-21
25-24
28-21
26-29
26-21
23-18
33-7
12-27
19-29
22-23
24-21
22-29
25-15
17-16
24-16
25-14
173.1Avg total
89.0Scored
84.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)86.895.2182.0-8.427%
Season at home (4)86.593.8180.2-7.20%
Season away (7)87.096.0183.0-9.043%
Last 10 (10)89.084.1173.1+4.950%
Last 5 (5)95.879.4175.2+16.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)85.495.3180.8-9.922%
vs Similar (2)93.094.5187.5-1.550%
vs Weaker (19)90.372.2162.4+18.179%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +4.8+4.8Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +7.3+7.3Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -1.3-1.3
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +4.8+4.8Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +7.3+7.3Q4Q4: +5.9+5.9Q4: -1.3-1.3
Real MadridBayern
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#9
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#10
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%-
This opponent (Bayern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dubai
#9
L
36-63
36
63
-27
H22/10
Euroleague
Hamburg
#15
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H25/10
BBL
Barcelona
#4
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H27/10
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#6
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A29/10
Euroleague
Rostock
#3
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A01/11
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#16
W
57-38
57
38
+19
H03/11
BBL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A05/11
Euroleague
Wurzburg
#9
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A08/11
BBL
Valencia
#3
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A12/11
Euroleague
Syntainics MBC
#5
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H15/11
BBL
86.1Avg total
42.5Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.540.484.9+4.270%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.238.284.4+8.081%-
Last 30 away (14)42.642.985.5-0.257%-
Last 10 (10)42.543.686.1-1.160%-
Last 5 (5)46.841.087.8+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)40.148.788.8-8.644%-
vs Similar (2)44.048.592.5-4.50%-
vs Weaker (19)46.735.682.3+11.189%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bayerntheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayern: 88.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.522.3
56.5%
55.2%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.39.6
36.5%
35.7%28.8
🏀 Free throws19.015.2
80.0%
77.1%15.2
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
Bayern
WLWWWLLLWL
#5
League position
#18
+23.0
Net rating
+2.0
114.6
Offensive rating
101.7
91.6
Defensive rating
99.7
60.2%
Effective FG%
55.8%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.2%
12.7%
Turnover %
15.5%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.29
41.9%
3-point %
36.5%
62.4%
Assist %
66.1%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence114.6 · 101.7Defence91.6 · 99.7Shooting60.2% · 55.8%3-point %41.9% · 36.5%Ball care12.7% · 15.5%Free throws0.33 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)90% · 50%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Bayern
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Real Madrid wins
3
Bayern wins
DateGameScore
26/02/26Real Madrid v Bayern93-70
28/10/25Bayern v Real Madrid90-84
18/04/25Real Madrid v Bayern93-71
03/01/25Real Madrid v Bayern88-76
03/10/24Bayern v Real Madrid97-89
09/01/24Bayern v Real Madrid71-92
14/12/23Real Madrid v Bayern88-73
06/04/23Real Madrid v Bayern79-67
13/12/22Bayern v Real Madrid64-68
08/04/22Real Madrid v Bayern88-97
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92
Bayernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HSyntainics MBC91-61
12/11/26AValencia87-102
08/11/26AWurzburg94-73
05/11/26ALyon-Villeurbanne99-95
03/11/26HBasketball Braunschweig108-66
01/11/26ARostock67-69
29/10/26ACrvena zvezda73-103
27/10/26HBarcelona84-88
25/10/26HHamburg96-77
22/10/26HDubai91-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %64%80%50%
Points / game98.5101.895.7
Allowed / game90.188.691.3
Point differential+8.4+13.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.4187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%80%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
Bayern
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL27%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayWLLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %27%0%43%
Points / game86.886.587.0
Allowed / game95.293.896.0
Point differential-8.4-7.2-9.0
Avg total182.0180.2183.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)0% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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