PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Bayern vs Real Madrid Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 03 Oct 2024
Tip-off: 18:45
Final 97-89
26-29 26-22 12-22 33-16
Position#7
Record-
FormWWWLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Bayern 🏆
vs
Real Madrid
Position#8
Record-
FormWWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeEuroleagueRound 1· BMW Park
European cup2024
Meetings · Bayern v Real Madrid
24 Mar 2027
BAY v MAD
upcoming
28 Oct 2025
BAY90
MAD84
03 Oct 2024
BAY97
MAD89
09 Jan 2024
BAY71
MAD92
13 Dec 2022
BAY64
MAD68
05 Nov 2021
BAY76
MAD80
15 Jan 2021
BAY76
MAD81
21 Dec 2018
BAY72
MAD82
11 Dec 2015
BAY67
MAD86
13 Mar 2014
BAY85
MAD83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bayern winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BayernLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBayern
Date
Competition
Wurzburg
#4
W
91-76
91
76
+15
92avg 78
H29/05
BBL
Wurzburg
#4
W
99-75
99
75
+24
98avg 78
H31/05
BBL
Wurzburg
#4
W
75-61
75
61
+14
68avg 78
A02/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
W
79-67
79
67
+12
72avg 78
H08/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
L
70-79
70
79
-9
63avg 78
H10/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
W
67-63
67
63
+4
63avg 78
A12/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
W
88-82
88
82
+6
82avg 78
A14/06
BBL
Chemnitz
#7
W
73-59
73
59
+14
70avg 78
H20/09
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#8
L
70-78
70
78
-8
68avg 78
A22/09
BBL
Hamburg
#13
W
81-80
81
80
+1
72avg 78
H29/09
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-11
28-16
25-23
17-26
22-21
26-23
25-16
26-15
12-18
26-15
22-13
15-15
26-19
20-24
23-19
10-5
26-19
6-20
18-17
20-23
17-14
14-14
17-17
19-18
22-21
22-25
21-6
23-30
16-16
20-12
26-18
11-13
16-25
19-17
19-17
16-19
21-21
21-20
16-19
23-20
151.3Avg total
79.3Scored
72.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.372.0151.3+7.380%
Last 5 (5)75.872.4148.2+3.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)78.286.8165.0-8.50%
vs Similar ◀ (7)71.767.6139.3+4.157%
vs Weaker (19)85.975.4161.3+10.584%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Panathinaikos
#2
L
80-95
80
95
-15
70avg 85
H26/05
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
W
97-78
97
78
+19
96avg 85
H29/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
W
104-98
104
98
+6
99avg 85
H31/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
W
95-92
95
92
+3
101avg 85
A02/06
ACB
Murcia
#6
W
84-76
84
76
+8
74avg 85
H08/06
ACB
Murcia
#6
W
79-63
79
63
+16
72avg 85
H10/06
ACB
Murcia
#6
W
84-73
84
73
+11
85avg 85
A12/06
ACB
Barcelona
#3
W
89-83
89
83
+6
70avg 85
H21/09
Supercopa ACB
Unicaja
#1
L
80-90
80
90
-10
70avg 85
H22/09
Supercopa ACB
Leyma Coruna
#18
L
85-86
85
86
-1
76avg 85
A29/09
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-25
18-24
7-15
19-31
24-14
20-22
28-26
25-16
22-24
22-16
29-22
31-36
28-20
21-25
23-31
23-16
18-13
19-20
27-15
20-28
18-15
22-15
17-22
22-11
17-19
15-21
34-16
18-17
20-18
21-24
26-19
22-22
19-32
26-17
18-19
17-22
22-16
22-21
19-23
22-26
171.1Avg total
87.7Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)87.783.4171.1+4.370%
Last 5 (5)83.479.0162.4+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)80.090.0170.0-10.00%
vs Similar ◀ (2)83.585.5169.0-2.050%
vs Weaker (26)88.982.0170.9+7.081%
This opponent (Bayern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +4.7+4.7Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.6-0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +1.6+1.6Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +4.7+4.7Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: -0.6-0.6
BayernReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BayernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wurzburg
#4
W
49-27
49
27
+22
H29/05
BBL
Wurzburg
#4
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H31/05
BBL
Wurzburg
#4
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A02/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H08/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H10/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
W
31-28
31
28
+3
A12/06
BBL
Alba Berlin
#2
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A14/06
BBL
Chemnitz
#7
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H20/09
BBL
Ludwigsburg
#8
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A22/09
BBL
Hamburg
#13
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H29/09
BBL
77.2Avg total
40.1Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.637.978.5+2.870%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.737.379.0+4.373%-
Last 30 away (15)39.638.478.0+1.267%-
Last 10 (10)40.137.177.2+3.070%-
Last 5 (5)37.637.074.6+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.846.879.5-14.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)37.736.173.9+1.643%-
vs Weaker (19)43.436.680.0+6.795%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Panathinaikos
#2
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H26/05
Euroleague
Barcelona
#3
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H29/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H31/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
W
49-45
49
45
+4
A02/06
ACB
Murcia
#6
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H08/06
ACB
Murcia
#6
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H10/06
ACB
Murcia
#6
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A12/06
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H21/09
Supercopa ACB
Unicaja
#1
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H22/09
Supercopa ACB
Leyma Coruna
#18
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A29/09
ACB
83.1Avg total
43.0Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.039.682.6+3.570%-
Last 30 at home (18)44.940.785.6+4.372%-
Last 30 away (12)40.237.978.1+2.267%-
Last 10 (10)43.040.183.1+2.970%-
Last 5 (5)40.439.680.0+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)45.049.094.0-4.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (2)55.043.098.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker (26)42.138.881.0+3.373%-
This opponent (Bayern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bayerntheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayern: 81.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.418.7
56.0%
54.5%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.410.4
35.4%
36.2%31.2
🏀 Free throws15.113.1
86.8%
78.0%13.1
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 87.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.1 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.0 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.519.1
53.8%
54.5%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.6
35.6%
36.2%28.8
🏀 Free throws24.720.1
81.4%
78.0%20.1
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Oct 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bayern
WLWWWLWWWW
Real Madrid
LLWWWWWWWL
#7
League position
#8
+12.5
Net rating
+6.5
114.7
Offensive rating
115.6
102.2
Defensive rating
109.1
54.6%
Effective FG%
53.6%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
17.1%
Turnover %
15.3%
32.4%
Off. rebound %
29.3%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.40
35.4%
3-point %
35.6%
59.8%
Assist %
58.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence114.7 · 115.6Defence102.2 · 109.1Shooting54.6% · 53.6%3-point %35.4% · 35.6%Ball care17.1% · 15.3%Off. rebounds32.4% · 29.3%Free throws0.24 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Bayern   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Bayern wins
9
Real Madrid wins
DateGameScore
09/01/24Bayern v Real Madrid71-92
14/12/23Real Madrid v Bayern88-73
06/04/23Real Madrid v Bayern79-67
13/12/22Bayern v Real Madrid64-68
08/04/22Real Madrid v Bayern88-97
05/11/21Bayern v Real Madrid76-80
15/01/21Bayern v Real Madrid76-81 OT
29/10/20Real Madrid v Bayern100-82
22/02/19Real Madrid v Bayern91-78
21/12/18Bayern v Real Madrid72-82
Bayernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/09/24HHamburg81-80
22/09/24ALudwigsburg70-78
20/09/24HChemnitz73-59
14/06/24AAlba Berlin88-82
12/06/24AAlba Berlin67-63
10/06/24HAlba Berlin70-79
08/06/24HAlba Berlin79-67
02/06/24AWurzburg75-61
31/05/24HWurzburg99-75
29/05/24HWurzburg91-76
Real Madridlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/09/24ALeyma Coruna85-86
22/09/24HUnicaja80-90
21/09/24HBarcelona89-83
12/06/24AMurcia84-73
10/06/24HMurcia79-63
08/06/24HMurcia84-76
02/06/24ABarcelona95-92
31/05/24HBarcelona104-98
29/05/24HBarcelona97-78
26/05/24HPanathinaikos80-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bayern
Euroleague 2024
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2024
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Monaco110100%93.080.0+13.0
2 Panathinaikos110100%87.077.0+10.0
3 Zalgiris Kaunas110100%74.067.0+7.0
4 Baskonia110100%88.082.0+6.0
5 Partizan1010%82.088.0-6.0
6 Barcelona1010%67.074.0-7.0
7 Alba Berlin1010%77.087.0-10.0
8 Olimpia Milano1010%80.093.0-13.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bayern2626123397
Real Madrid2922221689
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.