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Sao Paulo vs Cearense Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 04 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 75-79
20-18 18-15 23-32 14-14
Position#13
Record11-14
FormLLLLW
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game78.6
vs
Position#17
Record6-19
FormLWLLL
Points / game71.2
Allowed / game78.2
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Cearense
04 Mar 2025
SAO 75
CEAR79
06 Nov 2023
SAO 70
CEAR86
04 Feb 2023
SAO 85
CEAR70
07 Feb 2022
SAO 73
CEAR62
13 Mar 2021
SAO 98
CEAR76
29 Nov 2019
SAO 92
CEAR73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cearense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
58avg 73
A23/12
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
76-80
76
80
-4
77avg 73
A28/12
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
73-75
73
75
-2
70avg 73
A11/01
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
69-80
69
80
-11
66avg 73
H17/01
NBB
Franca
#2
L
65-75
65
75
-10
56avg 73
A21/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-89
80
89
-9
75avg 73
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
L
66-82
66
82
-16
60avg 73
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
66-90
66
90
-24
50avg 73
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
71-80
71
80
-9
71avg 73
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
63avg 73
H13/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-14
19-13
13-24
10-26
15-24
29-19
18-21
14-16
21-18
12-23
20-18
20-16
14-26
20-19
15-24
20-11
13-16
15-20
20-19
17-20
23-22
18-20
19-28
20-19
24-16
14-20
18-25
10-21
18-22
14-31
18-18
16-19
15-16
15-24
26-27
15-13
9-9
28-18
20-17
11-22
149.1Avg total
69.7Scored
79.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)76.478.6155.0-2.344%
Season at home (13)76.977.8154.7-0.854%
Season away (12)75.879.6155.3-3.833%
Last 10 (10)69.779.4149.1-9.710%
Last 5 (5)70.281.4151.6-11.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)75.980.1156.1-4.243%
vs Similar ◀ (11)79.081.5160.5-2.545%
vs Weaker (4)78.577.0155.5+1.550%
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
L
74-76
74
76
-2
71avg 66
A14/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
81-77
81
77
+4
76avg 66
A19/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
70-73
70
73
-3
69avg 66
A27/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
71-82
71
82
-11
60avg 66
A29/12
NBB
Pato
#14
W
80-76
80
76
+4
64avg 66
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
74-75
74
75
-1
63avg 66
A18/01
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
83-74
83
74
+9
78avg 66
A20/01
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
62-84
62
84
-22
53avg 66
H07/02
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
79-84
79
84
-5
67avg 66
A13/02
NBB
Minas
#1
L
86-92
86
92
-6
84avg 66
H28/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-14
16-21
17-22
21-19
24-16
25-19
8-19
24-23
18-21
20-18
12-20
20-14
22-28
14-19
16-16
19-19
17-31
29-19
23-16
11-10
18-21
14-18
23-17
19-19
17-20
18-17
21-19
27-18
21-26
9-14
15-29
17-15
21-20
19-21
17-24
22-19
21-16
18-23
21-27
26-26
155.3Avg total
76.0Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)71.278.2149.4-7.024%
Season at home (12)68.874.8143.6-5.933%
Season away (13)73.381.4154.7-8.115%
Last 10 (10)76.079.3155.3-3.330%
Last 5 (5)76.881.8158.6-5.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)70.479.8150.2-9.411%
vs Similar ◀ (12)73.375.2148.6-1.950%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -3.4-3.4Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: +2.4+2.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -1.4-1.4Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -3.4-3.4Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: +2.4+2.4
Sao PauloCearense
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minas
#1
W
40-27
40
27
+13
A23/12
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A28/12
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A11/01
NBB
Mogi
#16
L
34-45
34
45
-11
H17/01
NBB
Franca
#2
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A21/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-42
41
42
-1
H23/01
NBB
Minas
#2
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A25/01
Super 8
Corinthians Paulista
#8
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H04/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H13/02
NBB
74.7Avg total
35.7Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.239.777.0-2.540%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.739.477.1-1.740%-
Last 30 away (15)36.840.176.9-3.340%-
Last 10 (10)35.739.074.7-3.340%-
Last 5 (5)35.639.675.2-4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)35.140.375.4-5.129%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)39.840.480.2-0.545%-
vs Weaker (4)37.237.074.2+0.250%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A14/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
49-35
49
35
+14
A19/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A27/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A29/12
NBB
Pato
#14
L
46-50
46
50
-4
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A18/01
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A20/01
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H07/02
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A13/02
NBB
Minas
#1
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H28/02
NBB
78.3Avg total
38.1Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.540.074.5-5.620%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.538.672.1-5.127%-
Last 30 away (15)35.441.576.9-6.113%-
Last 10 (10)38.140.278.3-2.120%-
Last 5 (5)35.239.274.4-4.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)34.740.975.6-6.322%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)34.238.772.8-4.517%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 68.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.615.9
50.3%
50.9%31.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.67.3
30.9%
33.0%21.9
🏀 Free throws20.814.8
71.2%
72.7%14.8
They take 55.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.517.8
48.8%
50.9%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.59.0
34.0%
33.0%27.0
🏀 Free throws18.412.6
68.5%
72.7%12.6
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
WLLLLLLLLL
Cearense
LLLWLWLLWL
#13
League position
#17
-14.3
Net rating
-5.1
95.2
Offensive rating
103.3
109.5
Defensive rating
108.3
48.6%
Effective FG%
49.7%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.8%
22.3%
Turnover %
18.5%
24.4%
Off. rebound %
31.4%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.29
30.9%
3-point %
34.0%
69.8%
Assist %
61.2%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence95.2 · 103.3Defence109.5 · 108.3Shooting48.6% · 49.7%3-point %30.9% · 34.0%Ball care22.3% · 18.5%Off. rebounds24.4% · 31.4%Free throws0.38 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)10% · 30%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Cearense
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Sao Paulo wins
2
Cearense wins
DateGameScore
14/11/24Cearense v Sao Paulo79-80 OT
13/01/24Cearense v Sao Paulo75-81
06/11/23Sao Paulo v Cearense70-86
04/02/23Sao Paulo v Cearense85-70
08/12/22Cearense v Sao Paulo81-111
07/02/22Sao Paulo v Cearense73-62
04/11/21Cearense v Sao Paulo68-81
13/03/21Sao Paulo v Cearense98-76
23/12/20Cearense v Sao Paulo92-85
30/11/19Sao Paulo v Cearense92-73
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/25HUnifacisa68-66
08/02/25APinheiros71-80
04/02/25HCorinthians Paulista66-90
25/01/25AMinas66-82
23/01/25HSao Jose80-89
21/01/25AFranca65-75
17/01/25HMogi69-80
11/01/25ABauru73-75
28/12/24APaulistano76-80
23/12/24AMinas63-77
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/25HMinas86-92
13/02/25AFlamengo79-84
07/02/25HBrasilia62-84
20/01/25ABotafogo83-74
18/01/25AVasco74-75
13/01/25HPato80-76
29/12/24AUniao Corinthians71-82
27/12/24ACaxias do Sul70-73
19/12/24AUnifacisa81-77
14/12/24APinheiros74-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW44%
HomeWLLLW54%
AwayLLLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251312
Win %44%54%33%
Points / game76.476.975.8
Allowed / game78.677.879.6
Point differential-2.3-0.8-3.8
Avg total155.0154.7155.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%31%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (11)75% (4)43% (7)
Overtime %4%0%8%
Cearense
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL24%
HomeWLWLL33%
AwayLLLWL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251213
Win %24%33%15%
Points / game71.268.873.3
Allowed / game78.274.881.4
Point differential-7.0-5.9-8.1
Avg total149.4143.6154.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+4%8%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won22% (9)33% (3)17% (6)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas2521484%82.271.6+10.6
2 Flamengo2520580%84.473.4+10.9
3 Brasilia2718967%82.179.6+2.5
4 Franca2516964%83.478.3+5.0
5 Uniao Corinthians25141156%78.579.0-0.6
6 Bauru25141156%78.479.0-0.6
7 Vasco26141254%76.676.0+0.7
8 Paulistano25131252%78.074.9+3.1
9 Pinheiros26131350%75.174.9+0.2
10 Corinthians Paulista27131448%80.479.4+1.0
11 Unifacisa27131448%75.475.3+0.1
12 Sao Jose27131448%78.178.5-0.4
13 Sao Paulo25111444%76.478.6-2.3
14 Pato2791833%81.785.0-3.3
15 Mogi2791833%74.080.6-6.7
16 Botafogo2681831%73.480.5-7.1
17 Caxias do Sul2471729%73.278.8-5.6
18 Cearense2561924%71.278.2-7.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo2018231475
Cearense1815321479
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