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Sydney vs Perth Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 105-104
22-24 26-20 25-31 32-29
Position#1
Record24-9
FormWWWWW
Points / game99.3
Allowed / game87.2
Sydney 🏆
Australia
vs
Perth
Australia
Position#5
Record22-13
FormWLWLW
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game86.5
AustraliaNBLNBL - Semi-finals· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Sydney v Perth
06 Dec 2026
SYDN v PERT
upcoming
17 Oct 2026
SYDN102
PERT81
11 Mar 2026
SYDN105
PERT104
15 Feb 2026
SYDN102
PERT84
19 Oct 2025
SYDN94
PERT72
02 Feb 2025
SYDN97
PERT104
21 Jan 2024
SYDN98
PERT104
15 Oct 2023
SYDN99
PERT86
07 Jan 2023
SYDN108
PERT87
19 Feb 2022
SYDN98
PERT95
30 Jan 2022
SYDN96
PERT81
08 Apr 2021
SYDN69
PERT73
28 Mar 2021
SYDN65
PERT89
23 Feb 2021
SYDN106
PERT113
15 Mar 2020
SYDN96
PERT111
08 Mar 2020
SYDN86
PERT88
28 Dec 2019
SYDN85
PERT98
10 Nov 2019
SYDN104
PERT85
27 Jan 2019
SYDN68
PERT88
06 Dec 2018
SYDN77
PERT72
21 Jan 2018
SYDN84
PERT56
06 Jan 2018
SYDN68
PERT76
07 Jan 2017
SYDN74
PERT80
19 Nov 2016
SYDN83
PERT72
10 Feb 2016
SYDN103
PERT77
13 Dec 2015
SYDN69
PERT87
18 Dec 2014
SYDN78
PERT74
16 Nov 2014
SYDN66
PERT85
02 Mar 2014
SYDN81
PERT85
27 Oct 2013
SYDN72
PERT82
24 Feb 2013
SYDN71
PERT97
30 Dec 2012
SYDN61
PERT95
20 Jan 2012
SYDN75
PERT76
11 Feb 2011
SYDN84
PERT98
29 Dec 2010
SYDN78
PERT91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Perth winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
W
97-94
97
94
+3
90avg 92
H11/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
95-80
95
80
+15
no box
H15/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
105-94
105
94
+11
98avg 92
H22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
106-101
106
101
+5
102avg 92
H25/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
122-104
122
104
+18
124avg 92
H29/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
106-92
106
92
+14
92avg 92
A01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
114-88
114
88
+26
114avg 92
A08/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
120-94
120
94
+26
123avg 92
A13/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
102-84
102
84
+18
98avg 92
H15/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
117-77
117
77
+40
118avg 92
A20/02
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-23
30-25
23-25
18-21
29-23
23-18
23-17
20-22
26-14
26-22
31-28
22-30
22-20
37-26
25-24
22-31
28-22
35-23
28-29
31-30
17-34
28-20
26-22
35-16
33-29
22-25
30-23
29-11
34-19
24-27
26-23
36-25
28-29
27-16
24-19
23-20
26-33
32-17
32-10
27-17
199.2Avg total
108.4Scored
90.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)99.387.2186.5+12.073%
Season at home (17)99.488.1187.5+11.276%
Season away (16)99.286.3185.5+12.969%
Last 10 (10)108.490.8199.2+17.6100%
Last 5 (5)111.887.0198.8+24.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)100.487.3187.7+13.177%
This opponent (Perth) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PerthAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPerth
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
106-69
106
69
+37
113avg 83
H22/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
73-74
73
74
-1
58avg 83
H25/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
101-93
101
93
+8
97avg 83
H28/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
106-99
106
99
+7
100avg 83
A31/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
98-84
98
84
+14
45avg 83
H06/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
94-75
94
75
+19
91avg 83
H13/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
84-102
84
102
-18
65avg 83
A15/02
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
86-74
86
74
+12
83avg 83
H20/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
94-111
94
111
-17
93avg 83
A04/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
95-77
95
77
+18
94avg 83
H07/03
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-25
24-18
38-13
14-13
24-12
16-26
12-12
21-24
24-32
25-19
26-26
26-16
25-30
23-24
32-20
26-25
22-22
28-18
18-19
30-25
29-19
22-18
25-18
18-20
29-28
16-27
19-24
20-23
19-17
29-17
17-24
21-16
29-35
18-29
17-22
30-25
22-19
22-34
23-10
28-14
179.5Avg total
93.7Scored
85.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)91.086.5177.5+4.563%
Season at home (18)90.084.5174.5+5.561%
Season away (17)92.188.6180.7+3.465%
Last 10 (10)93.785.8179.5+7.970%
Last 5 (5)90.687.8178.4+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)78.3101.3179.7-23.00%
vs Similar (13)90.588.9179.4+1.546%
vs Weaker (14)96.381.7178.0+14.693%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +6.5+6.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: +3.9+3.9Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: +3.3+3.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +6.5+6.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: +3.9+3.9Q4Q4: +4.0+4.0Q4: +3.3+3.3
SydneyPerth
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H11/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H15/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H25/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
63-45
63
45
+18
H29/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A01/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
55-54
55
54
+1
A08/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
58-46
58
46
+12
A13/02
NBL
Perth
#5
W
55-45
55
45
+10
H15/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
58-50
58
50
+8
A20/02
NBL
101.8Avg total
55.3Scored
46.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.244.996.1+6.277%-
Last 30 at home (14)53.944.698.4+9.386%-
Last 30 away (16)48.845.294.1+3.669%-
Last 10 (10)55.346.5101.8+8.890%-
Last 5 (5)54.249.8104.0+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)51.244.996.1+6.277%-
This opponent (Perth) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PerthLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H22/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H25/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H28/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
48-54
48
54
-6
A31/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
50-40
50
40
+10
H06/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H13/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
45-55
45
55
-10
A15/02
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
48-34
48
34
+14
H20/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
47-64
47
64
-17
A04/03
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
44-53
44
53
-9
H07/03
NBL
94.5Avg total
47.6Scored
46.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.044.291.1+2.857%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.841.187.9+5.773%-
Last 30 away (15)47.147.394.4-0.140%-
Last 10 (10)47.646.994.5+0.750%-
Last 5 (5)47.048.695.6-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)44.049.793.7-5.70%-
vs Similar (13)47.545.192.6+2.554%-
vs Weaker (14)47.142.189.2+4.971%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 108.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.227.5
62.2%
54.6%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.711.9
38.8%
33.3%35.7
🏀 Free throws22.617.5
77.4%
74.8%17.5
They take 74.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perththeir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth: 88.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.322.7
56.3%
54.6%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.68.9
34.8%
33.3%26.7
🏀 Free throws22.816.6
72.8%
74.8%16.6
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WWWWWWWWWW
Perth
WLWLWWWWLW
#1
League position
#5
+21.2
Net rating
+8.4
114.8
Offensive rating
101.6
93.6
Defensive rating
93.3
60.5%
Effective FG%
54.7%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.6%
9.4%
Turnover %
11.8%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.35
38.8%
3-point %
34.8%
61.7%
Assist %
62.0%
100%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence114.8 · 101.6Defence93.6 · 93.3Shooting60.5% · 54.7%3-point %38.8% · 34.8%Ball care9.4% · 11.8%Free throws0.30 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)100% · 70%
■ Sydney   ■ Perth
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Sydney wins
5
Perth wins
DateGameScore
15/02/26Sydney v Perth102-84
12/12/25Perth v Sydney79-108
19/10/25Sydney v Perth94-72
02/02/25Sydney v Perth97-104
25/10/24Perth v Sydney87-84
27/09/24Perth v Sydney87-88
21/01/24Sydney v Perth98-104
01/12/23Perth v Sydney114-105
15/10/23Sydney v Perth99-86
05/02/23Perth v Sydney96-84
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/02/26ABrisbane Bullets117-77
15/02/26HPerth102-84
13/02/26AIllawarra Hawks120-94
08/02/26ASouth East Melbourne114-88
01/02/26ACairns Taipans106-92
29/01/26HIllawarra Hawks122-104
25/01/26HAdelaide106-101
22/01/26HTasmania JackJumpers105-94
15/01/26HBrisbane Bullets95-80
11/01/26HMelbourne United97-94
Perthlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HMelbourne United95-77
04/03/26ASouth East Melbourne94-111
20/02/26HAdelaide86-74
15/02/26ASydney84-102
13/02/26HBrisbane Bullets94-75
06/02/26HCairns Taipans98-84
31/01/26AIllawarra Hawks106-99
28/01/26HSouth East Melbourne101-93
25/01/26HMelbourne United73-74
22/01/26HCairns Taipans106-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW73%
HomeWWWWW76%
AwayWWWWW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %73%76%69%
Points / game99.399.499.2
Allowed / game87.288.186.3
Point differential+12.0+11.2+12.9
Avg total186.5187.5185.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%53%56%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)60% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %6%6%6%
Perth
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW63%
HomeWWWWW61%
AwayWWWLL65%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351817
Win %63%61%65%
Points / game91.090.092.1
Allowed / game86.584.588.6
Point differential+4.5+5.5+3.4
Avg total177.5174.5180.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%39%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)17% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney3324973%99.387.2+12.0
2 Adelaide35241169%92.988.5+4.4
3 South East Melbourne35231266%100.993.1+7.8
4 Perth35221363%91.086.5+4.5
5 Melbourne United35211460%91.487.7+3.8
6 Tasmania JackJumpers34142041%86.587.2-0.7
7 New Zealand Breakers34142041%92.193.1-0.9
8 Illawarra Hawks33132039%93.297.1-4.0
9 Cairns Taipans3392427%83.596.8-13.3
10 Brisbane Bullets3362718%82.196.8-14.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney22262532105
Perth24203129104
← all games of the day
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