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Sydney vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 29 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 122-104
28-22 35-23 28-29 31-30
Position#1
Record18-9
FormWWWWW
Points / game96.1
Allowed / game86.7
Sydney 🏆
Australia
vs
Illawarra Hawks
Australia
Position#8
Record10-16
FormLLLWW
Points / game91.5
Allowed / game95.8
AustraliaNBLRound 19· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Sydney v Illawarra Hawks
25 Dec 2026
SYDN v ILLA
upcoming
27 Sep 2026
SYDN121
ILLA100
29 Jan 2026
SYDN122
ILLA104
25 Dec 2025
SYDN108
ILLA84
25 Dec 2024
SYDN108
ILLA111
29 Sep 2024
SYDN89
ILLA96
11 Feb 2024
SYDN95
ILLA106
25 Dec 2023
SYDN90
ILLA94
15 Jan 2023
SYDN84
ILLA79
20 Nov 2022
SYDN83
ILLA82
01 May 2022
SYDN99
ILLA87
24 Apr 2022
SYDN84
ILLA87
11 Dec 2021
SYDN84
ILLA92
11 Mar 2021
SYDN69
ILLA89
14 Feb 2021
SYDN82
ILLA85
14 Feb 2020
SYDN98
ILLA82
17 Nov 2019
SYDN92
ILLA87
13 Jan 2019
SYDN84
ILLA96
02 Nov 2018
SYDN86
ILLA79
05 Nov 2017
SYDN83
ILLA93
15 Oct 2017
SYDN103
ILLA87
23 Dec 2016
SYDN75
ILLA87
24 Oct 2016
SYDN90
ILLA73
09 Jan 2016
SYDN90
ILLA114
17 Oct 2015
SYDN86
ILLA100
15 Feb 2015
SYDN73
ILLA75
11 Oct 2014
SYDN86
ILLA83
15 Feb 2014
SYDN84
ILLA102
14 Dec 2013
SYDN63
ILLA69
15 Dec 2012
SYDN70
ILLA63
09 Nov 2012
SYDN65
ILLA51
24 Mar 2012
SYDN68
ILLA77
23 Oct 2011
SYDN95
ILLA89
21 Jan 2011
SYDN81
ILLA71
12 Dec 2010
SYDN80
ILLA95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
119-77
119
77
+42
119avg 87
H21/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
108-84
108
84
+24
110avg 87
H25/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
95-70
95
70
+25
93avg 87
H30/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
79-85
79
85
-6
69avg 87
A02/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
117-124
117
124
-7
110avg 87
H05/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
103-62
103
62
+41
104avg 87
A09/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
97-94
97
94
+3
90avg 87
H11/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
95-80
95
80
+15
no box
H15/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
105-94
105
94
+11
98avg 87
H22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
106-101
106
101
+5
102avg 87
H25/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-23
29-18
34-19
28-17
34-19
28-22
21-17
25-26
24-15
27-15
26-19
18-21
26-19
15-16
18-21
20-29
35-31
25-28
32-36
25-29
23-17
27-4
25-19
28-22
26-23
30-25
23-25
18-21
29-23
23-18
23-17
20-22
26-14
26-22
31-28
22-30
22-20
37-26
25-24
22-31
189.5Avg total
102.4Scored
87.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)96.186.7182.8+9.467%
Season at home (15)97.787.3185.0+10.373%
Season away (12)94.285.8180.0+8.358%
Last 10 (10)102.487.1189.5+15.380%
Last 5 (5)101.286.2187.4+15.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)75.095.0170.0-20.00%
vs Similar (1)97.0104.0201.0-7.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (28)95.887.0182.8+8.964%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
L
75-97
75
97
-22
62avg 86
A18/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
78-84
78
84
-6
66avg 86
H20/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
84-108
84
108
-24
72avg 86
A25/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
92-90
92
90
+2
89avg 86
H31/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
96-78
96
78
+18
90avg 86
H03/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
113-124 OT
113
124
-11
108avg 86
A08/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
96-101
96
101
-5
91avg 86
H11/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
87-92
87
92
-5
no box
A16/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
101-91
101
91
+10
102avg 86
A24/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
113-75
113
75
+38
117avg 86
A26/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
21-23
26-27
8-23
21-21
18-20
20-19
19-24
19-34
22-28
17-21
26-25
23-18
27-21
23-26
19-25
22-18
23-31
27-15
24-14
25-23
25-32
29-24
27-27
25-28
18-21
23-22
30-30
13-18
24-26
21-21
29-27
27-26
33-22
22-26
19-17
22-11
33-20
41-21
17-23
187.5Avg total
93.5Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)91.595.8187.3-4.338%
Season at home (13)91.893.7185.5-1.946%
Season away (13)91.297.9189.2-6.731%
Last 10 (10)93.594.0187.5-0.540%
Last 5 (5)102.096.6198.6+5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)89.199.2188.4-10.121%
vs Similar (6)87.298.7185.8-11.533%
vs Weaker (10)99.186.7185.8+12.470%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +6.9+6.9Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: +7.3+7.3Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -1.7-1.7
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +6.9+6.9Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: +7.3+7.3Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: -1.7-1.7
SydneyIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H21/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
62-41
62
41
+21
H25/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
51-30
51
30
+21
H30/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A02/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
60-59
60
59
+1
H05/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
50-21
50
21
+29
A09/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H11/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H15/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H25/01
NBL
93.8Avg total
54.0Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.844.593.3+4.370%-
Last 30 at home (17)50.645.095.6+5.676%-
Last 30 away (13)46.543.890.3+2.662%-
Last 10 (10)54.039.893.8+14.2100%-
Last 5 (5)53.838.492.2+15.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.050.089.0-11.00%-
vs Similar (1)48.056.0104.0-8.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (28)49.243.993.1+5.375%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A18/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H20/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A25/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H31/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H03/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A08/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H11/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A16/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
60-48
60
48
+12
A24/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
55-31
55
31
+24
A26/01
NBL
92.6Avg total
46.1Scored
46.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.346.692.9-0.340%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.246.492.6-0.240%-
Last 30 away (15)46.446.893.2-0.440%-
Last 10 (10)46.146.592.6-0.430%-
Last 5 (5)49.045.494.4+3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)44.147.992.0-3.929%-
vs Similar (6)46.849.596.3-2.733%-
vs Weaker (10)49.143.092.1+6.160%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 101.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.726.5
60.6%
54.6%53.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.611.0
35.9%
33.3%33.0
🏀 Free throws21.915.6
71.2%
74.8%15.6
They take 74.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 93.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.8 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.627.4
57.6%
54.6%54.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.48.5
32.2%
33.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws18.313.5
73.8%
74.8%13.5
They take 74.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WWWWWLLWWW
Illawarra Hawks
WWLLLWWLLL
#1
League position
#8
+16.9
Net rating
+2.0
119.2
Offensive rating
108.9
102.3
Defensive rating
106.9
57.9%
Effective FG%
54.3%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
10.4%
Turnover %
14.4%
29.2%
Off. rebound %
32.5%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.9%
3-point %
32.2%
62.1%
Assist %
59.1%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence119.2 · 108.9Defence102.3 · 106.9Shooting57.9% · 54.3%3-point %35.9% · 32.2%Ball care10.4% · 14.4%Off. rebounds29.2% · 32.5%Free throws0.29 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Sydney   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Sydney wins
6
Illawarra Hawks wins
DateGameScore
25/12/25Sydney v Illawarra Hawks108-84
16/11/25Illawarra Hawks v Sydney71-98
07/02/25Illawarra Hawks v Sydney95-75
25/12/24Sydney v Illawarra Hawks108-111
16/11/24Illawarra Hawks v Sydney86-79
29/09/24Sydney v Illawarra Hawks89-96
11/02/24Sydney v Illawarra Hawks95-106
25/12/23Sydney v Illawarra Hawks90-94
03/11/23Illawarra Hawks v Sydney83-103
30/09/23Illawarra Hawks v Sydney81-96
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/26HAdelaide106-101
22/01/26HTasmania JackJumpers105-94
15/01/26HBrisbane Bullets95-80
11/01/26HMelbourne United97-94
09/01/26ANew Zealand Breakers103-62
05/01/26HSouth East Melbourne117-124
02/01/26AAdelaide79-85
30/12/25HBrisbane Bullets95-70
25/12/25HIllawarra Hawks108-84
21/12/25HCairns Taipans119-77
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/26ABrisbane Bullets113-75
24/01/26ATasmania JackJumpers101-91
16/01/26APerth87-92
11/01/26HNew Zealand Breakers96-101
08/01/26ASouth East Melbourne113-124 OT
03/01/26HCairns Taipans96-78
31/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers92-90
25/12/25ASydney84-108
20/12/25HAdelaide78-84
18/12/25AMelbourne United75-97

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW67%
HomeLWWWW73%
AwayLWWLW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271512
Win %67%73%58%
Points / game96.197.794.2
Allowed / game86.787.385.8
Point differential+9.4+10.3+8.3
Avg total182.8185.0180.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%47%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)60% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %7%7%8%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW38%
HomeWLWWL46%
AwayLLLWW31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %38%46%31%
Points / game91.591.891.2
Allowed / game95.893.797.9
Point differential-4.3-1.9-6.7
Avg total187.3185.5189.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%31%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)40% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %8%8%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2821775%93.387.2+6.1
2 South East Melbourne2819968%100.592.4+8.1
3 Sydney2718967%96.186.7+9.4
4 Melbourne United28181064%92.787.3+5.4
5 Perth28171161%90.385.9+4.4
6 Tasmania JackJumpers28121643%85.885.9-0.2
7 Illawarra Hawks26101638%91.595.8-4.3
8 New Zealand Breakers27101737%90.592.1-1.6
9 Cairns Taipans2772026%82.797.1-14.4
10 Brisbane Bullets2962321%83.396.2-12.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney28352831122
Illawarra Hawks22232930104
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