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Varese vs Trieste Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 May 2025
Tip-off: 16:15
Final 85-80
19-19 20-16 27-22 19-23
Position#12
Record9-19
FormWLWWL
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game95.8
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Trieste
Italy
Position#6
Record17-11
FormWWLLW
Points / game87.3
Allowed / game85.2
ItalyLega ARound 29· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2024-25
Meetings · Varese v Trieste
10 Oct 2026
VAR85
TRI84
21 Dec 2025
VAR84
TRI69
04 May 2025
VAR85
TRI80
18 Dec 2022
VAR104
TRI99
13 Apr 2022
VAR76
TRI92
25 Apr 2021
VAR73
TRI79
19 Jan 2020
VAR91
TRI85
28 Oct 2018
VAR78
TRI66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Trieste winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
L
79-92
79
92
-13
71avg 79
H09/02
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
93-106 OT
93
106
-13
88avg 79
A02/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
82-89 OT
82
89
-7
64avg 79
A09/03
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
63-78
63
78
-15
49avg 79
H16/03
Lega A
Treviso
#11
L
86-88
86
88
-2
74avg 79
A23/03
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
95-82
95
82
+13
84avg 79
H30/03
Lega A
Cremona
#13
L
85-87 OT
85
87
-2
78avg 79
H06/04
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#14
W
97-87
97
87
+10
87avg 79
A12/04
Lega A
Sassari
#10
W
89-84
89
84
+5
92avg 79
H19/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
67-104
67
104
-37
58avg 79
A27/04
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-25
13-27
19-22
22-18
32-23
23-26
14-18
20-22
14-18
19-23
20-13
22-21
14-20
15-13
16-20
18-25
19-19
23-26
23-22
21-21
23-21
23-17
29-20
20-24
16-6
14-16
23-18
15-28
26-20
24-21
25-21
22-25
23-17
23-17
18-21
25-29
17-13
13-32
20-35
17-24
173.3Avg total
83.6Scored
89.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)87.195.8183.0-8.732%
Season at home (14)88.692.7181.4-4.150%
Season away (14)85.698.9184.6-13.314%
Last 10 (10)83.689.7173.3-6.130%
Last 5 (5)86.688.8175.4-2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)86.598.2184.7-11.625%
vs Similar (10)90.089.8179.8+0.250%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Trieste) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TriesteItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrieste
Date
Competition
Trento
#1
L
79-82
79
82
-3
77avg 79
A15/02
Italian Cup
Treviso
#11
W
85-73
85
73
+12
79avg 79
H02/03
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
88-75
88
75
+13
87avg 79
H09/03
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
88-131
88
131
-43
84avg 79
A15/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
85-78
85
78
+7
78avg 79
H22/03
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
89-69
89
69
+20
95avg 79
A30/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#14
W
109-82
109
82
+27
108avg 79
H06/04
Lega A
Venezia
#8
L
71-103
71
103
-32
54avg 79
A13/04
Lega A
Trento
#4
L
88-94
88
94
-6
80avg 79
H19/04
Lega A
Cremona
#13
W
101-81
101
81
+20
98avg 79
A28/04
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-23
20-15
25-21
21-23
18-18
27-15
20-18
20-22
17-24
22-10
26-23
23-18
25-41
17-29
27-31
19-30
17-22
20-19
20-17
28-20
28-17
19-10
24-17
18-25
17-15
34-21
23-22
35-24
13-29
23-25
18-28
17-21
24-32
17-22
20-13
27-27
28-13
24-24
20-30
29-14
175.1Avg total
88.3Scored
86.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)87.385.2172.5+2.061%
Season at home (14)86.980.8167.6+6.164%
Season away (14)87.789.7177.4-2.057%
Last 10 (10)88.386.8175.1+1.560%
Last 5 (5)91.685.8177.4+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)84.691.8176.4-7.240%
vs Similar (12)80.284.0164.2-3.833%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)94.883.5178.3+11.392%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: +1.3+1.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: +1.3+1.3
VareseTrieste
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#4
L
38-52
38
52
-14
H09/02
Lega A
Trapani
#3
W
55-49
55
49
+6
A02/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
33-41
33
41
-8
A09/03
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H16/03
Lega A
Treviso
#11
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A23/03
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H30/03
Lega A
Cremona
#13
W
30-22
30
22
+8
H06/04
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#14
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A12/04
Lega A
Sassari
#10
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H19/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A27/04
Lega A
79.9Avg total
39.9Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.845.691.4+0.253%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.144.390.4+1.760%-
Last 30 away (15)45.546.992.4-1.347%-
Last 10 (10)39.940.079.9-0.150%-
Last 5 (5)40.436.076.4+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)45.447.592.8-2.145%-
vs Similar (10)46.641.988.5+4.770%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Trieste) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TriesteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#1
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A15/02
Italian Cup
Treviso
#11
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H02/03
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H09/03
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
42-70
42
70
-28
A15/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H22/03
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
47-27
47
27
+20
A30/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#14
W
51-36
51
36
+15
H06/04
Lega A
Venezia
#8
L
36-54
36
54
-18
A13/04
Lega A
Trento
#4
L
41-54
41
54
-13
H19/04
Lega A
Cremona
#13
W
52-37
52
37
+15
A28/04
Lega A
84.7Avg total
42.3Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.841.884.7+1.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.639.081.6+3.664%-
Last 30 away (16)43.144.387.4-1.238%-
Last 10 (10)42.342.484.7-0.150%-
Last 5 (5)45.441.687.0+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)39.446.285.6-6.820%-
vs Similar (12)40.942.883.8-1.942%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)46.639.886.3+6.867%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀45%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.6 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.316.3
50.5%
52.9%32.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.112.4
38.6%
35.8%37.2
🏀 Free throws17.112.8
74.9%
76.8%12.8
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Triestetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trieste: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.718.8
54.2%
52.9%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.512.6
40.0%
35.8%37.8
🏀 Free throws18.412.6
68.5%
76.8%12.6
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWWLWLLLLL
Trieste
WLLWWWLWWL
#12
League position
#6
-8.1
Net rating
+3.3
106.2
Offensive rating
116.0
114.2
Defensive rating
112.7
54.2%
Effective FG%
56.9%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
19.1%
Turnover %
18.4%
23.4%
Off. rebound %
33.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.28
38.6%
3-point %
40.0%
58.5%
Assist %
57.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence106.2 · 116.0Defence114.2 · 112.7Shooting54.2% · 56.9%3-point %38.6% · 40.0%Ball care19.1% · 18.4%Off. rebounds23.4% · 33.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)30% · 60%
■ Varese   ■ Trieste
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Varese wins
4
Trieste wins
DateGameScore
03/11/24Trieste v Varese107-81
16/04/23Trieste v Varese80-83
18/12/22Varese v Trieste104-99 OT
13/04/22Varese v Trieste76-92
14/11/21Trieste v Varese70-86
25/04/21Varese v Trieste73-79
27/01/21Trieste v Varese108-83
19/01/20Varese v Trieste91-85
29/09/19Trieste v Varese62-92
10/02/19Trieste v Varese96-104
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/04/25AVirtus Bologna67-104
19/04/25HSassari89-84
12/04/25ABasket Napoli97-87
06/04/25HCremona85-87 OT
30/03/25HScafati95-82
23/03/25ATreviso86-88
16/03/25HReggiana63-78
09/03/25ATortona82-89 OT
02/03/25ATrapani93-106 OT
09/02/25HTrento79-92
Triestelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/25ACremona101-81
19/04/25HTrento88-94
13/04/25AVenezia71-103
06/04/25HBasket Napoli109-82
30/03/25APistoia89-69
22/03/25HVirtus Bologna85-78
15/03/25ATrapani88-131
09/03/25HScafati88-75
02/03/25HTreviso85-73
15/02/25ATrento79-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL32%
HomeLLWLW50%
AwayLLLWL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %32%50%14%
Points / game87.188.685.6
Allowed / game95.892.798.9
Point differential-8.7-4.1-13.3
Avg total183.0181.4184.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%7%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)80% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %11%7%14%
Trieste
Lega A 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW61%
HomeWWWWL64%
AwayLLWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %61%64%57%
Points / game87.386.987.7
Allowed / game85.280.889.7
Point differential+2.0+6.1-2.0
Avg total172.5167.6177.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%36%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)33% (3)75% (4)
Overtime %4%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trapani2821775%94.884.8+10.0
2 Virtus Bologna2821775%84.976.4+8.5
3 Trento2921872%87.681.2+6.3
4 Brescia2820871%89.784.8+5.0
5 Olimpia Milano2819968%89.483.9+5.5
6 Trieste28171161%87.385.2+2.0
7 Reggiana29171259%79.477.8+1.7
8 Venezia28151354%83.580.6+2.9
9 Tortona28141450%85.985.6+0.3
10 Sassari28121643%81.583.9-2.4
11 Treviso28111739%84.487.8-3.4
12 Varese2891932%87.195.8-8.7
13 Basket Napoli2882029%83.288.2-5.0
14 Cremona2882029%79.084.8-5.9
15 Scafati2862221%84.892.2-7.5
16 Pistoia2862221%79.589.1-9.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese1920271985
Trieste1916222380
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