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Varese vs Virtus Roma Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2020
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 98-88
20-17 28-16 23-28 27-27
Position#12
Record2-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game88.0
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#16
Record2-5
FormLLLWL
Points / game71.6
Allowed / game84.3
ItalyLega ARound 8
Domestic2020-21
Meetings · Varese v Virtus Roma
15 Nov 2020
VAR98
VRO88
01 Dec 2019
VAR99
VRO69
08 Mar 2015
VAR78
VRO73
12 Jan 2014
VAR78
VRO86
01 Apr 2013
VAR81
VRO58
12 Feb 2012
VAR76
VRO78
27 Mar 2011
VAR84
VRO78
20 Dec 2009
VAR67
VRO84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Roma winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Cantu
#15
L
72-81
72
81
-9
no box
A07/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
77-91
77
91
-14
no box
A10/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Brescia
#10
W
102-100
102
100
+2
no box
H13/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Brescia
#11
W
94-89 OT
94
89
+5
no box
H27/09
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
W
88-83
88
83
+5
89avg 76
A04/10
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
80-90
80
90
-10
69avg 76
H11/10
Lega A
Cremona
#9
L
67-80
67
80
-13
55avg 76
A17/10
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
73-85
73
85
-12
58avg 76
H24/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
82-104
82
104
-22
73avg 76
A01/11
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
78-85
78
85
-7
66avg 76
A08/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
17-19
19-21
18-19
20-19
21-23
18-25
18-24
33-29
17-24
32-30
20-17
17-23
16-20
26-16
22-22
29-22
14-23
19-22
26-16
29-23
15-21
20-14
16-32
18-26
15-21
16-15
18-18
23-29
16-24
21-15
13-17
18-36
14-31
26-17
24-20
21-16
18-18
18-27
21-24
170.1Avg total
81.3Scored
88.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.388.0168.3-7.729%
Season at home (3)82.388.0170.3-5.733%
Season away (4)78.888.0166.8-9.225%
Last 10 (10)81.388.8170.1-7.530%
Last 5 (5)76.088.8164.8-12.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)80.793.0173.7-12.310%
vs Similar (10)83.186.9170.0-3.840%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)85.075.1160.1+9.970%
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRoma
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#3
L
56-89
56
89
-33
no box
H10/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Sassari
#5
L
76-99
76
99
-23
no box
H12/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Brindisi
#4
L
62-98
62
98
-36
no box
A14/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
W
81-76
81
76
+5
82avg 68
H27/09
Lega A
Brindisi
#3
L
67-92
67
92
-25
49avg 68
A04/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
72-92
72
92
-20
65avg 68
H11/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
71-93
71
93
-22
65avg 68
A18/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
69-84
69
84
-15
63avg 68
H25/10
Lega A
Brescia
#11
W
70-64
70
64
+6
60avg 68
A31/10
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
71-89
71
89
-18
68avg 68
H08/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
9-20
19-23
12-22
22-35
15-26
13-21
26-17
13-19
20-20
12-32
17-27
20-20
24-12
20-28
17-16
15-22
14-25
20-27
18-18
10-21
13-23
21-18
28-30
16-25
14-28
17-24
24-16
14-18
18-22
17-23
20-21
18-29
16-12
20-10
16-13
15-28
28-24
10-14
18-23
157.1Avg total
69.5Scored
87.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)71.684.3155.9-12.729%
Season at home (4)73.285.2158.5-12.025%
Season away (3)69.383.0152.3-13.733%
Last 10 (10)69.587.6157.1-18.120%
Last 5 (5)70.684.4155.0-13.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)73.490.4163.8-17.015%
vs Similar (2)81.076.5157.5+4.550%
vs Weaker (1)92.083.0175.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -8.2-8.2Q2Q2: -6.1-6.1Q2: -4.1-4.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -0.7-0.7
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -8.2-8.2Q2Q2: -6.1-6.1Q2: -4.1-4.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -0.7-0.7
VareseVirtus Roma
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cantu
#15
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A07/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A10/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Brescia
#10
L
50-53
50
53
-3
H13/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Brescia
#11
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H27/09
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A04/10
Lega A
Cantu
#15
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H11/10
Lega A
Cremona
#9
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A17/10
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
39-53
39
53
-14
H24/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
32-67
32
67
-35
A01/11
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A08/11
Lega A
85.8Avg total
38.9Scored
46.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.543.785.3-2.237%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.442.586.9+1.950%-
Last 30 away (16)39.144.883.9-5.825%-
Last 10 (10)38.946.985.8-8.010%-
Last 5 (5)37.449.086.4-11.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)39.950.190.0-10.210%-
vs Similar (10)40.541.281.7-0.740%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)44.239.984.1+4.360%-
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#3
L
25-44
25
44
-19
H10/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Sassari
#5
L
37-61
37
61
-24
H12/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Brindisi
#4
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A14/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H27/09
Lega A
Brindisi
#3
L
29-47
29
47
-18
A04/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
23-44
23
44
-21
H11/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
30-53
30
53
-23
A18/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H25/10
Lega A
Brescia
#11
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A31/10
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H08/11
Lega A
78.3Avg total
33.0Scored
45.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.246.984.0-9.723%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.844.381.1-7.533%-
Last 30 away (15)37.549.587.0-11.913%-
Last 10 (10)33.045.378.3-12.310%-
Last 5 (5)32.446.078.4-13.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)36.248.084.2-11.715%-
vs Similar (2)46.535.582.0+11.0100%-
vs Weaker (1)44.040.084.0+4.0100%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 79.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.715.1
50.8%
51.2%30.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.911.7
35.6%
35.9%35.1
🏀 Free throws18.113.9
76.8%
75.8%13.9
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Romatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Roma: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.6 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.2
54.5%
51.2%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.77.1
32.7%
35.9%21.3
🏀 Free throws15.19.6
63.6%
75.8%9.6
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2020 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LLLLLWWWLL
Virtus Roma
LWLLLLWLLL
#12
League position
#16
-9.0
Net rating
-13.2
110.0
Offensive rating
102.1
119.0
Defensive rating
115.3
52.2%
Effective FG%
52.6%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
16.8%
Turnover %
17.3%
27.4%
Off. rebound %
22.5%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.6%
3-point %
32.7%
61.6%
Assist %
58.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence110.0 · 102.1Defence119.0 · 115.3Shooting52.2% · 52.6%3-point %35.6% · 32.7%Ball care16.8% · 17.3%Off. rebounds27.4% · 22.5%Free throws0.29 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)30% · 20%
■ Varese   ■ Virtus Roma
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Varese wins
5
Virtus Roma wins
DateGameScore
01/12/19Varese v Virtus Roma99-69
08/03/15Varese v Virtus Roma78-73 OT
16/11/14Virtus Roma v Varese87-78
11/05/14Virtus Roma v Varese99-90
12/01/14Varese v Virtus Roma78-86
01/04/13Varese v Virtus Roma81-58
09/02/13Virtus Roma v Varese71-81
02/12/12Virtus Roma v Varese91-87
12/02/12Varese v Virtus Roma76-78
30/10/11Virtus Roma v Varese74-76 OT
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/20APesaro78-85
01/11/20ASassari82-104
24/10/20HVirtus Bologna73-85
17/10/20ACremona67-80
11/10/20HCantu80-90
04/10/20AFortitudo Bologna88-83
27/09/20HBrescia94-89 OT
13/09/20HBrescia102-100
10/09/20AOlimpia Milano77-91
07/09/20ACantu72-81
Virtus Romalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/20HVenezia71-89
31/10/20ABrescia70-64
25/10/20HPesaro69-84
18/10/20AOlimpia Milano71-93
11/10/20HSassari72-92
04/10/20ABrindisi67-92
27/09/20HFortitudo Bologna81-76
14/09/20ABrindisi62-98
12/09/20HSassari76-99
10/09/20HPesaro56-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2020-21
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL29%
HomeWLL33%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %29%33%25%
Points / game80.382.378.8
Allowed / game88.088.088.0
Point differential-7.7-5.7-9.2
Avg total168.3170.3166.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %14%33%0%
Virtus Roma
Lega A 2020-21
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL29%
HomeWLLL25%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%25%33%
Points / game71.673.269.3
Allowed / game84.385.283.0
Point differential-12.7-12.0-13.7
Avg total155.9158.5152.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano770100%88.967.6+21.3
2 Brindisi87188%89.478.2+11.1
3 Venezia75271%80.176.6+3.6
4 Reggiana53260%78.876.4+2.4
5 Virtus Bologna74357%82.979.4+3.4
6 Pesaro74357%81.178.4+2.7
7 Sassari84450%88.686.2+2.4
8 Cantu42250%75.877.8-2.0
9 Trento73443%79.180.6-1.4
10 Trieste52340%76.078.0-2.0
11 Treviso52340%83.292.8-9.6
12 Cremona62433%80.787.3-6.7
13 Brescia72529%75.080.7-5.7
14 Varese72529%80.388.0-7.7
15 Virtus Roma72529%71.684.3-12.7
16 Fortitudo Bologna71614%81.486.9-5.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2028232798
Virtus Roma1716282788
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