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Adelaide vs Melbourne United Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 12 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 114-105 (OT)
27-22 32-26 22-19 14-28 19-10
Position#3
Record13-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game91.9
Allowed / game85.1
Adelaide 🏆
Australia
vs
Melbourne United
Australia
Position#4
Record13-4
FormWWWLL
Points / game95.9
Allowed / game87.9
AustraliaNBLRound 12· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2025-26
Meetings · Adelaide v Melbourne United
12 Nov 2026
ADEL v MELB
upcoming
07 Oct 2026
ADEL91
MELB96
12 Dec 2025
ADEL114
MELB105
04 Jan 2025
ADEL100
MELB81
06 Jan 2024
ADEL100
MELB96
01 Oct 2023
ADEL74
MELB82
21 Jan 2023
ADEL87
MELB94
30 Jan 2022
ADEL88
MELB83
22 Jan 2022
ADEL78
MELB97
25 Feb 2021
ADEL73
MELB82
15 Jan 2021
ADEL65
MELB89
11 Jan 2020
ADEL100
MELB86
10 Feb 2019
ADEL87
MELB89
28 Jan 2019
ADEL91
MELB114
25 Mar 2018
ADEL90
MELB81
18 Mar 2018
ADEL110
MELB95
14 Oct 2017
ADEL79
MELB99
05 Oct 2017
ADEL97
MELB99
12 Jan 2017
ADEL100
MELB73
14 Oct 2016
ADEL87
MELB98
22 Jan 2016
ADEL90
MELB81
23 Dec 2015
ADEL91
MELB81
12 Dec 2014
ADEL90
MELB77
15 Nov 2014
ADEL79
MELB118
01 Apr 2014
ADEL102
MELB63
27 Mar 2014
ADEL101
MELB85
23 Mar 2014
ADEL99
MELB94
08 Nov 2013
ADEL90
MELB87
10 Feb 2013
ADEL71
MELB84
07 Oct 2012
ADEL84
MELB61
19 Nov 2011
ADEL95
MELB89
18 Mar 2011
ADEL76
MELB79
18 Feb 2011
ADEL83
MELB86
05 Dec 2009
ADEL84
MELB87
21 Oct 2009
ADEL70
MELB81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
L
80-81
80
81
-1
81avg 87
A26/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
90-88
90
88
+2
79avg 87
H02/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
83-79
83
79
+4
73avg 87
A06/11
NBL
Perth
#5
L
87-94
87
94
-7
72avg 87
H09/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
97-86
97
86
+11
91avg 87
A13/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
105-101 OT
105
101
+4
93avg 87
H16/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
97-85
97
85
+12
87avg 87
H19/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
94-81
94
81
+13
92avg 87
A22/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
90-65
90
65
+25
92avg 87
H05/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
95-94
95
94
+1
94avg 87
A07/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-14
20-26
18-19
25-22
21-19
20-22
31-26
18-21
22-14
21-33
23-21
17-11
18-17
27-27
31-28
11-22
26-15
26-23
28-17
17-31
26-27
25-23
27-18
13-23
21-22
23-27
27-15
26-21
19-23
18-20
30-21
27-17
23-20
27-13
27-12
13-20
22-25
18-25
20-28
35-16
177.2Avg total
91.8Scored
85.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)91.985.1177.1+6.881%
Season at home (9)91.286.2177.4+5.078%
Season away (7)92.983.7176.6+9.186%
Last 10 (10)91.885.4177.2+6.480%
Last 5 (5)96.285.2181.4+11.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)95.194.8189.8+0.354%
vs Similar ◀ (9)91.888.6180.3+3.256%
vs Weaker (8)96.182.4178.5+13.8100%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
94-67
94
67
+27
88avg 87
A24/10
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
81-80
81
80
+1
71avg 87
H26/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
92-95
92
95
-3
85avg 87
H03/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
93-107
93
107
-14
80avg 87
A05/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
92-81
92
81
+11
88avg 87
A08/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
99-93
99
93
+6
90avg 87
H15/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
105-102
105
102
+3
89avg 87
A21/11
NBL
Perth
#5
W
98-87
98
87
+11
84avg 87
H23/11
NBL
Perth
#5
L
84-96
84
96
-12
70avg 87
A04/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
86-111
86
111
-25
75avg 87
A07/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-16
17-18
24-17
22-16
14-17
26-20
19-18
22-25
25-30
25-24
19-23
23-18
22-32
21-25
25-22
25-28
27-28
20-17
21-12
24-24
24-24
23-14
25-16
27-39
38-33
20-19
28-31
19-19
24-22
27-25
23-26
24-14
20-33
22-23
15-20
27-20
22-32
23-28
21-23
20-28
184.3Avg total
92.4Scored
91.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)95.987.9183.8+7.976%
Season at home (8)98.283.5181.8+14.888%
Season away (9)93.891.9185.7+1.967%
Last 10 (10)92.491.9184.3+0.560%
Last 5 (5)94.497.8192.2-3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)93.595.8189.2-2.238%
vs Similar ◀ (11)95.793.2188.9+2.573%
vs Weaker (11)99.686.3185.9+13.491%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +5.7+5.7Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.2+0.2
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +5.7+5.7Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.2+0.2
AdelaideMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
L
37-40
37
40
-3
A26/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H02/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A06/11
NBL
Perth
#5
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H09/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
52-38
52
38
+14
A13/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H16/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
44-49
44
49
-5
H19/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A22/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
50-33
50
33
+17
H05/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A07/12
NBL
87.5Avg total
44.0Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.643.491.9+5.263%-
Last 30 at home (14)48.843.191.9+5.671%-
Last 30 away (16)48.443.691.9+4.856%-
Last 10 (10)44.043.587.5+0.540%-
Last 5 (5)44.445.089.4-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)49.145.594.5+3.654%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)47.042.189.1+4.967%-
vs Weaker (8)49.541.490.9+8.175%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A24/10
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H26/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H03/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
43-57
43
57
-14
A05/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A08/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H15/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A21/11
NBL
Perth
#5
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H23/11
NBL
Perth
#5
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A04/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
45-60
45
60
-15
A07/12
NBL
95.1Avg total
47.1Scored
48.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.746.795.4+2.053%-
Last 30 at home (14)48.944.693.4+4.357%-
Last 30 away (16)48.648.597.1+0.150%-
Last 10 (10)47.148.095.1-0.960%-
Last 5 (5)48.650.699.2-2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)45.149.894.9-4.612%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)48.349.297.5-0.955%-
vs Weaker (11)51.741.993.6+9.882%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.922.5
50.1%
54.6%45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.6
35.6%
33.3%28.8
🏀 Free throws23.517.5
74.5%
74.8%17.5
They take 71.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 93.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.124.8
51.6%
54.6%49.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.78.5
29.6%
33.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws24.118.7
77.6%
74.8%18.7
They take 76.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
WWWWWWLWWL
Melbourne United
LLWWWWLLWW
#3
League position
#4
+8.8
Net rating
+1.1
116.8
Offensive rating
111.9
108.0
Defensive rating
110.9
51.3%
Effective FG%
48.9%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
11.2%
Turnover %
13.4%
30.2%
Off. rebound %
33.3%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.31
35.6%
3-point %
29.6%
67.0%
Assist %
54.1%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence116.8 · 111.9Defence108.0 · 110.9Shooting51.3% · 48.9%3-point %35.6% · 29.6%Ball care11.2% · 13.4%Off. rebounds30.2% · 33.3%Free throws0.33 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Adelaide   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Adelaide wins
7
Melbourne United wins
DateGameScore
26/10/25Melbourne United v Adelaide81-80
04/01/25Adelaide v Melbourne United100-81
17/11/24Melbourne United v Adelaide113-93
13/10/24Melbourne United v Adelaide106-79
06/01/24Adelaide v Melbourne United100-96
16/12/23Melbourne United v Adelaide107-96
01/10/23Adelaide v Melbourne United74-82
05/02/23Melbourne United v Adelaide116-107
21/01/23Adelaide v Melbourne United87-94
17/11/22Melbourne United v Adelaide86-91
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/25APerth95-94
05/12/25HBrisbane Bullets90-65
22/11/25ASouth East Melbourne94-81
19/11/25HIllawarra Hawks97-85
16/11/25HCairns Taipans105-101 OT
13/11/25ATasmania JackJumpers97-86
09/11/25HPerth87-94
06/11/25ANew Zealand Breakers83-79
02/11/25HIllawarra Hawks90-88
26/10/25AMelbourne United80-81
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/12/25ASouth East Melbourne86-111
04/12/25APerth84-96
23/11/25HPerth98-87
21/11/25AIllawarra Hawks105-102
15/11/25HBrisbane Bullets99-93
08/11/25ASouth East Melbourne92-81
05/11/25AIllawarra Hawks93-107
03/11/25HSydney92-95
26/10/25HAdelaide81-80
24/10/25ACairns Taipans94-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW81%
HomeWLWWW78%
AwayLWWWW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %81%78%86%
Points / game91.991.292.9
Allowed / game85.186.283.7
Point differential+6.8+5.0+9.1
Avg total177.1177.4176.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%33%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won83% (6)100% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %6%11%0%
Melbourne United
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL76%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayLWWLL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1789
Win %76%88%67%
Points / game95.998.293.8
Allowed / game87.983.591.9
Point differential+7.9+14.8+1.9
Avg total183.8181.8185.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%62%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide1613381%91.985.1+6.8
2 Melbourne United1713476%95.987.9+7.9
3 South East Melbourne1610662%97.289.8+7.4
4 Perth169756%89.887.1+2.7
5 Sydney147750%91.086.5+4.5
6 New Zealand Breakers1771041%89.388.1+1.2
7 Tasmania JackJumpers1771041%85.987.2-1.3
8 Illawarra Hawks1661038%90.296.9-6.7
9 Brisbane Bullets1751229%87.196.0-8.9
10 Cairns Taipans1641225%82.195.2-13.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Adelaide2732221419114
Melbourne United2226192810105
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