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Varese vs Avellino Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 18 Mar 2018
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 82-75
26-14 18-19 21-24 17-18
Position#8
Record8-13
FormWWWLL
Points / game77.5
Allowed / game75.7
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Avellino
Italy
Position#4
Record15-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game84.7
Allowed / game77.0
ItalyLega ARound 22
Domestic2017-18
Meetings · Varese v Avellino
11 Nov 2018
VAR79
AVE83
18 Mar 2018
VAR82
AVE75
06 Nov 2016
VAR77
AVE79
07 Dec 2015
VAR81
AVE93
10 May 2015
VAR66
AVE73
03 Nov 2013
VAR85
AVE68
06 Oct 2012
VAR91
AVE83
11 Jan 2012
VAR94
AVE78
30 Jan 2011
VAR83
AVE85
08 Nov 2009
VAR74
AVE91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Avellino winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#7
L
85-90 OT
85
90
-5
no box
H26/12
Lega A
Brindisi
#14
L
90-95 OT
90
95
-5
no box
A02/01
Lega A
Cremona
#10
L
72-80
72
80
-8
98avg 109
A07/01
Lega A
Torino
#12
L
89-92
89
92
-3
120avg 109
H14/01
Lega A
Venezia
#2
W
75-63
75
63
+12
103avg 109
A21/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
W
76-72
76
72
+4
104avg 109
H29/01
Lega A
Cantu
#9
W
89-85
89
85
+4
124avg 109
A05/02
Lega A
Brescia
#3
W
100-72
100
72
+28
137avg 109
H11/02
Lega A
Pistoia
#13
L
65-74
65
74
-9
96avg 109
A04/03
Lega A
Trento
#5
L
74-82
74
82
-8
98avg 109
A10/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-17
24-19
17-15
19-23
15-23
18-19
23-20
26-20
14-22
17-22
26-21
15-15
22-18
29-22
18-25
20-27
21-17
15-15
19-20
20-11
17-19
25-17
14-17
20-19
33-25
23-26
22-18
11-16
29-18
34-21
21-17
16-16
16-17
14-16
18-22
17-19
20-17
11-24
21-19
22-22
162.0Avg total
81.5Scored
80.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)77.575.7153.2+1.838%
Season at home (10)82.474.9157.3+7.560%
Season away (11)73.076.5149.5-3.518%
Last 10 (10)81.580.5162.0+1.040%
Last 5 (5)80.877.0157.8+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)78.278.2156.5+0.050%
vs Similar ◀ (20)78.075.8153.8+2.350%
vs Weaker (6)79.777.7157.3+2.033%
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AvellinoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAvellino
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
L
95-96 OT
95
96
-1
no box
H28/01
Lega A
Aris
#39
W
79-66
79
66
+13
no box
H31/01
Champions League
Torino
#12
W
77-59
77
59
+18
no box
A04/02
Lega A
Bonn
#31
L
74-79
74
79
-5
no box
A07/02
Champions League
Pistoia
#13
W
101-71
101
71
+30
192avg 115
H11/02
Lega A
Cremona
#4
L
82-89 OT
82
89
-7
no box
H15/02
Italian Cup
Cantu
#9
L
82-83
82
83
-1
119avg 115
A04/03
Lega A
Minsk
#20
L
70-70
70
70
+0
no box
H07/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#14
W
89-71
89
71
+18
121avg 115
H11/03
Lega A
Minsk
#20
W
81-72
81
72
+9
no box
A14/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-19
14-22
26-22
21-22
21-25
22-8
20-17
16-16
19-9
21-13
20-22
17-15
19-21
21-18
17-18
17-22
24-17
27-18
29-21
21-15
22-18
18-14
13-19
21-23
19-18
16-25
29-21
18-19
17-18
15-12
13-25
25-15
27-11
25-18
17-18
20-24
24-14
13-18
20-16
24-24
158.6Avg total
83.0Scored
75.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)84.777.0161.7+7.771%
Season at home (10)84.570.0154.5+14.590%
Season away (11)84.883.4168.2+1.555%
Last 10 (10)83.075.6158.6+7.450%
Last 5 (5)80.877.0157.8+3.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (15)83.578.0161.5+5.560%
vs Weaker (14)79.173.4152.6+5.750%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +4.6+4.6Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.5+0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +4.6+4.6Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.5+0.5
VareseAvellino
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#7
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H26/12
Lega A
Brindisi
#14
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A02/01
Lega A
Cremona
#10
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A07/01
Lega A
Torino
#12
W
51-40
51
40
+11
H14/01
Lega A
Venezia
#2
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A21/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H29/01
Lega A
Cantu
#9
W
56-51
56
51
+5
A05/02
Lega A
Brescia
#3
W
63-39
63
39
+24
H11/02
Lega A
Pistoia
#13
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A04/03
Lega A
Trento
#5
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A10/03
Lega A
80.5Avg total
41.1Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.439.478.9+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.838.682.4+5.271%-
Last 30 away (16)35.640.275.8-4.631%-
Last 10 (10)41.139.480.5+1.760%-
Last 5 (5)44.440.084.4+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)39.843.082.8-3.225%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)39.939.479.2+0.555%-
vs Weaker (6)37.737.375.0+0.350%-
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AvellinoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H28/01
Lega A
Aris
#39
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H31/01
Champions League
Torino
#12
W
40-22
40
22
+18
A04/02
Lega A
Bonn
#31
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A07/02
Champions League
Pistoia
#13
W
51-35
51
35
+16
H11/02
Lega A
Cremona
#4
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H15/02
Italian Cup
Cantu
#9
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A04/03
Lega A
Minsk
#20
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H07/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#14
W
52-29
52
29
+23
H11/03
Lega A
Minsk
#20
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A14/03
FIBA Europe Cup
74.4Avg total
40.8Scored
33.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.535.575.0+3.960%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.832.972.7+6.973%-
Last 30 away (15)39.138.277.3+0.947%-
Last 10 (10)40.833.674.4+7.280%-
Last 5 (5)39.233.272.4+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (15)38.735.374.0+3.567%-
vs Weaker (14)40.236.176.3+4.150%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 78.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.7 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.318.9
49.3%
51.6%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.99.1
38.1%
34.9%27.3
🏀 Free throws16.713.1
78.4%
73.0%13.1
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Avellinotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Avellino: 86.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.7 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.722.1
58.6%
51.6%44.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.710.5
44.3%
34.9%31.5
🏀 Free throws14.810.4
70.3%
73.0%10.4
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Mar 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LLWWWWLLLL
Avellino
WWLLLWLWWL
#8
League position
#4
+4.7
Net rating
+16.6
109.1
Offensive rating
118.0
104.4
Defensive rating
101.4
52.3%
Effective FG%
61.6%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
47.9%
18.7%
Turnover %
18.8%
33.6%
Off. rebound %
28.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.24
38.1%
3-point %
44.3%
60.7%
Assist %
62.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.1 · 118.0Defence104.4 · 101.4Shooting52.3% · 61.6%3-point %38.1% · 44.3%Ball care18.7% · 18.8%Off. rebounds33.6% · 28.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Varese   ■ Avellino
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Varese wins
6
Avellino wins
DateGameScore
12/11/17Avellino v Varese65-61
05/03/17Avellino v Varese75-82
06/11/16Varese v Avellino77-79 OT
26/03/16Avellino v Varese89-71
07/12/15Varese v Avellino81-93
10/05/15Varese v Avellino66-73
11/01/15Avellino v Varese67-91
16/02/14Avellino v Varese83-63
03/11/13Varese v Avellino85-68
27/01/13Avellino v Varese82-83 OT
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/18ATrento74-82
04/03/18APistoia65-74
11/02/18HBrescia100-72
05/02/18ACantu89-85
29/01/18HOlimpia Milano76-72
21/01/18AVenezia75-63
14/01/18HTorino89-92
07/01/18ACremona72-80
02/01/18ABrindisi90-95 OT
26/12/17HVirtus Bologna85-90 OT
Avellinolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/03/18AMinsk81-72
11/03/18HBrindisi89-71
07/03/18HMinsk70-70
04/03/18ACantu82-83
15/02/18HCremona82-89 OT
11/02/18HPistoia101-71
07/02/18ABonn74-79
04/02/18ATorino77-59
31/01/18HAris79-66
28/01/18HBrescia95-96 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2017-18
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL38%
HomeWLLWW60%
AwayLWWLL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %38%60%18%
Points / game77.582.473.0
Allowed / game75.774.976.5
Point differential+1.8+7.5-3.5
Avg total153.2157.3149.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%40%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)33% (3)20% (5)
Overtime %10%10%9%
Avellino
Lega A 2017-18
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW71%
HomeWWLWW90%
AwayWWLWL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %71%90%55%
Points / game84.784.584.8
Allowed / game77.070.083.4
Point differential+7.7+14.5+1.5
Avg total161.7154.5168.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%60%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)67% (3)40% (5)
Overtime %24%20%27%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano2217577%80.072.5+7.5
2 Venezia2116576%80.778.3+2.4
3 Avellino2115671%84.777.0+7.7
4 Brescia2014670%79.274.5+4.7
5 Torino2112957%80.781.2-0.5
6 Virtus Bologna21111052%78.875.8+3.0
7 Sassari21111052%85.082.2+2.8
8 Cantu21111052%87.787.3+0.4
9 Trento22111150%78.277.7+0.5
10 Cremona21101148%82.982.0+0.9
11 Reggiana21101148%75.776.4-0.7
12 Varese2181338%77.575.7+1.8
13 Pistoia2271532%75.281.1-5.9
14 Brindisi2161529%76.080.4-4.4
15 Pesaro2151624%77.284.1-7.0
16 Capo d'Orlando2151624%69.382.2-13.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2618211782
Avellino1419241875
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