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Bayern vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 24 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#17
Record3-7
FormLLWWW
Points / game86.8
Allowed / game94.5
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.2/10
Below normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Position#8
Record6-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game97.8
Allowed / game90.7
EuropeEuroleagueRound 33· SAP Garden
European cup2026
Meetings · Bayern v Real Madrid
24 Mar 2027
BAY v MAD
upcoming
28 Oct 2025
BAY90
MAD84
03 Oct 2024
BAY97
MAD89
09 Jan 2024
BAY71
MAD92
13 Dec 2022
BAY64
MAD68
05 Nov 2021
BAY76
MAD80
15 Jan 2021
BAY76
MAD81
21 Dec 2018
BAY72
MAD82
11 Dec 2015
BAY67
MAD86
13 Mar 2014
BAY85
MAD83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bayern win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BayernLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBayern
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#12
W
101-93
101
93
+8
96avg 84
A14/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
L
87-95
87
95
-8
88avg 84
A16/10
Euroleague
Dubai
#6
L
91-107
91
107
-16
86avg 84
H22/10
Euroleague
Hamburg
#17
W
96-77
96
77
+19
102avg 84
H25/10
BBL
Barcelona
#7
L
84-88
84
88
-4
75avg 84
H27/10
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#2
L
73-103
73
103
-30
65avg 84
A29/10
Euroleague
Rostock
#5
L
67-69
67
69
-2
59avg 84
A01/11
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#14
W
108-66
108
66
+42
no box
H03/11
BBL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
99-95
99
95
+4
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
Wurzburg
#7
W
94-73
94
73
+21
no box
A08/11
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-22
28-24
21-22
26-25
17-26
18-27
23-16
29-26
14-29
22-34
31-19
24-25
27-23
15-18
29-12
25-24
17-21
25-20
19-23
23-24
15-19
16-29
23-31
19-24
15-24
25-14
13-12
14-19
22-18
35-20
28-17
23-11
20-21
25-24
28-21
26-29
26-21
23-18
33-7
12-27
176.6Avg total
90.0Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)86.894.5181.3-7.730%
Season at home (4)86.593.8180.2-7.20%
Season away (6)87.095.0182.0-8.050%
Last 10 (10)90.086.6176.6+3.450%
Last 5 (5)88.281.2169.4+7.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)85.294.5179.8-9.225%
vs Similar (2)93.094.5187.5-1.550%
vs Weaker (20)90.172.8162.9+17.280%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
98-89
98
89
+9
95avg 92
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 92
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 92
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 92
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 92
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 92
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#5
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 92
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 92
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-25
32-15
31-27
14-22
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
193.1Avg total
105.4Scored
87.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)97.890.7188.5+7.160%
Season at home (4)101.089.8190.8+11.275%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)105.487.7193.1+17.790%
Last 5 (5)98.285.4183.6+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)94.292.1186.3+2.140%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)99.889.7189.5+10.265%
This opponent (Bayern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.5-2.5Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +6.8+6.8Q3Q3: +6.8+6.8Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.5-2.5Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +6.8+6.8Q3Q3: +6.8+6.8Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +5.3+5.3
BayernReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BayernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#12
W
54-46
54
46
+8
A14/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
L
35-53
35
53
-18
A16/10
Euroleague
Dubai
#6
L
36-63
36
63
-27
H22/10
Euroleague
Hamburg
#17
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H25/10
BBL
Barcelona
#7
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H27/10
Euroleague
Crvena zvezda
#2
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A29/10
Euroleague
Rostock
#5
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A01/11
BBL
Basketball Braunschweig
#14
W
57-38
57
38
+19
H03/11
BBL
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A05/11
Euroleague
Wurzburg
#7
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A08/11
BBL
88.3Avg total
43.1Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.740.384.9+4.473%-
Last 30 at home (17)46.138.884.9+7.382%-
Last 30 away (13)42.842.284.9+0.662%-
Last 10 (10)43.145.288.3-2.160%-
Last 5 (5)44.441.686.0+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)40.048.288.2-8.250%-
vs Similar (2)44.048.592.5-4.50%-
vs Weaker (20)46.636.282.8+10.490%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#5
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
94.2Avg total
51.8Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.044.693.6+4.370%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.543.492.9+6.173%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)51.842.494.2+9.480%-
Last 5 (5)47.441.889.2+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)46.647.193.7-0.560%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)50.143.493.5+6.875%-
This opponent (Bayern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bayerntheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayern: 88.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.522.3
56.5%
55.2%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.39.6
36.5%
35.7%28.8
🏀 Free throws19.015.2
80.0%
77.1%15.2
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bayern
WWWLLLWLLW
Real Madrid
WLWWWWWWWW
#17
League position
#8
+2.0
Net rating
+23.0
101.7
Offensive rating
114.6
99.7
Defensive rating
91.6
55.8%
Effective FG%
60.2%
56.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
15.5%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.33
36.5%
3-point %
41.9%
66.1%
Assist %
62.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence101.7 · 114.6Defence99.7 · 91.6Shooting55.8% · 60.2%3-point %36.5% · 41.9%Ball care15.5% · 12.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Bayern   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Bayern wins
7
Real Madrid wins
DateGameScore
26/02/26Real Madrid v Bayern93-70
28/10/25Bayern v Real Madrid90-84
18/04/25Real Madrid v Bayern93-71
03/01/25Real Madrid v Bayern88-76
03/10/24Bayern v Real Madrid97-89
09/01/24Bayern v Real Madrid71-92
14/12/23Real Madrid v Bayern88-73
06/04/23Real Madrid v Bayern79-67
13/12/22Bayern v Real Madrid64-68
08/04/22Real Madrid v Bayern88-97
Bayernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AWurzburg94-73
05/11/26ALyon-Villeurbanne99-95
03/11/26HBasketball Braunschweig108-66
01/11/26ARostock67-69
29/10/26ACrvena zvezda73-103
27/10/26HBarcelona84-88
25/10/26HHamburg96-77
22/10/26HDubai91-107
16/10/26ABesiktas87-95
14/10/26AAnadolu Efes101-93
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92
13/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bayern
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW30%
HomeLLLL0%
AwayLWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %30%0%50%
Points / game86.886.587.0
Allowed / game94.593.895.0
Point differential-7.7-7.2-8.0
Avg total181.3180.2182.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)0% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL60%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%75%50%
Points / game97.8101.095.7
Allowed / game90.789.891.3
Point differential+7.1+11.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.8187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%75%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %10%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos108280%87.678.7+8.9
2 Crvena zvezda107370%83.275.0+8.2
3 Valencia107370%95.889.1+6.7
4 Olympiacos107370%87.281.6+5.6
5 Fenerbahce107370%80.375.4+4.9
6 Dubai107370%88.084.1+3.9
7 Barcelona107370%91.088.7+2.3
8 Real Madrid106460%97.890.7+7.1
9 Hapoel Tel-Aviv106460%92.187.9+4.2
10 Zalgiris Kaunas106460%85.682.3+3.3
11 Partizan105550%79.478.9+0.5
12 Anadolu Efes104640%84.287.1-2.9
13 Besiktas104640%87.790.9-3.2
14 Paris104640%89.092.6-3.6
15 Virtus Bologna104640%85.689.5-3.9
16 Lyon-Villeurbanne104640%88.393.0-4.7
17 Bayern103730%86.894.5-7.7
18 Maccabi Tel Aviv102820%84.794.0-9.3
19 Olimpia Milano101910%81.189.6-8.5
20 Baskonia101910%81.393.1-11.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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