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Bayern vs Valencia Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 28 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 85-84
16-16 22-23 22-23 25-22
Position#15
Record7-9
FormLWWLW
Points / game79.2
Allowed / game81.3
Bayern 🏆
vs
Position#14
Record9-7
FormWWLWL
Points / game74.1
Allowed / game73.8
EuropeEuroleagueRound 17· BMW Park
European cup2023
Meetings · Bayern v Valencia
28 Jan 2027
BAY v VAL
upcoming
22 Jan 2026
BAY93
VAL89
28 Dec 2023
BAY85
VAL84
15 Dec 2022
BAY97
VAL92
13 Nov 2020
BAY90
VAL79
11 Mar 2015
BAY60
VAL94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bayern winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valencia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BayernLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBayern
Date
Competition
Vechta
#6
W
85-81
85
81
+4
75avg 75
A26/11
BBL
Virtus Bologna
#8
W
90-76
90
76
+14
85avg 75
H30/11
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#12
W
91-84 OT
91
84
+7
87avg 75
H05/12
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#4
L
69-77
69
77
-8
65avg 75
A08/12
Euroleague
Bonn
#10
W
86-78
86
78
+8
84avg 75
A10/12
German Cup
Real Madrid
#1
L
73-88
73
88
-15
60avg 75
A14/12
Euroleague
Ulm
#5
W
95-80
95
80
+15
89avg 75
H17/12
BBL
Anadolu Efes
#10
W
86-71
86
71
+15
80avg 75
H20/12
Euroleague
Monaco
#3
L
80-91
80
91
-11
77avg 75
H22/12
Euroleague
Tubingen
#18
W
96-74
96
74
+22
90avg 75
A26/12
BBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
18-18
21-13
24-29
20-28
24-18
26-20
20-10
22-25
22-14
11-13
21-24
8-24
21-17
15-13
25-23
22-19
25-24
25-15
14-20
23-19
14-23
20-21
16-25
25-17
18-28
23-18
29-17
20-17
30-24
21-18
15-12
14-17
17-29
29-21
20-24
28-13
18-19
28-22
22-20
165.1Avg total
85.1Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)79.281.3160.6-2.144%
Season at home (7)84.078.7162.7+5.371%
Season away (9)75.683.3158.9-7.822%
Last 10 (10)85.180.0165.1+5.170%
Last 5 (5)86.080.8166.8+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)72.785.9158.6-13.10%
vs Similar ◀ (9)86.881.8168.6+5.067%
vs Weaker (13)87.377.3164.6+10.077%
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#9
L
84-98
84
98
-14
71avg 72
H01/12
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
L
79-85
79
85
-6
67avg 72
H03/12
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#16
W
85-81
85
81
+4
75avg 72
H06/12
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#17
W
78-55
78
55
+23
75avg 72
A08/12
Euroleague
Murcia
#6
W
85-77 OT
85
77
+8
no box
A10/12
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
W
63-56
63
56
+7
58avg 72
A15/12
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#11
W
86-82
86
82
+4
87avg 72
H17/12
ACB
Partizan
#11
L
67-72
67
72
-5
62avg 72
H19/12
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#8
W
79-71
79
71
+8
78avg 72
H21/12
Euroleague
Granada
#17
L
75-81
75
81
-6
69avg 72
H23/12
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
31-24
18-23
14-31
17-19
22-24
20-17
20-25
25-19
31-21
16-25
13-16
18-23
17-10
18-8
25-14
23-7
18-19
12-20
17-24
14-15
21-11
12-12
16-18
19-20
13-18
29-27
25-17
14-19
20-14
10-20
23-19
26-21
11-26
23-7
19-17
20-18
15-19
14-23
26-21
153.9Avg total
78.1Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)74.173.8147.9+0.256%
Season at home (9)76.674.9151.4+1.767%
Season away (7)70.972.4143.3-1.643%
Last 10 (10)78.175.8153.9+2.360%
Last 5 (5)74.072.4146.4+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)72.972.1145.0+0.862%
vs Similar ◀ (14)78.577.4155.9+1.164%
vs Weaker (8)79.075.1154.1+3.962%
This opponent (Bayern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -0.4-0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -0.4-0.4
BayernValencia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BayernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vechta
#6
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A26/11
BBL
Virtus Bologna
#8
L
44-46
44
46
-2
H30/11
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#12
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H05/12
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#4
L
29-41
29
41
-12
A08/12
Euroleague
Bonn
#10
W
47-43
47
43
+4
A10/12
German Cup
Real Madrid
#1
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A14/12
Euroleague
Ulm
#5
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H17/12
BBL
Anadolu Efes
#10
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H20/12
Euroleague
Monaco
#3
L
31-46
31
46
-15
H22/12
Euroleague
Tubingen
#18
W
46-32
46
32
+14
A26/12
BBL
82.5Avg total
41.1Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.840.382.1+1.550%-
Last 30 at home (13)44.540.885.3+3.862%-
Last 30 away (17)39.739.979.6-0.241%-
Last 10 (10)41.141.482.5-0.350%-
Last 5 (5)41.441.282.6+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)33.742.376.0-8.60%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.342.185.4+1.256%-
vs Weaker (13)44.138.382.4+5.869%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#9
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H01/12
Euroleague
Bilbao
#13
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H03/12
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#16
W
56-40
56
40
+16
H06/12
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#17
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A08/12
Euroleague
Murcia
#6
W
41-26
41
26
+15
A10/12
ACB
Olympiacos
#4
W
35-26
35
26
+9
A15/12
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#11
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H17/12
ACB
Partizan
#11
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H19/12
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#8
L
37-47
37
47
-10
H21/12
Euroleague
Granada
#17
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H23/12
ACB
76.3Avg total
39.6Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.637.176.7+2.567%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.238.478.6+1.962%-
Last 30 away (14)38.835.674.4+3.171%-
Last 10 (10)39.636.776.3+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)34.636.270.8-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)37.536.674.1+0.962%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)41.437.078.4+4.479%-
vs Weaker (8)38.437.876.1+0.650%-
This opponent (Bayern) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bayerntheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayern: 84.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.219.8
53.2%
53.4%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.810.6
38.1%
36.6%31.8
🏀 Free throws15.112.7
84.1%
77.4%12.7
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 79.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.020.7
55.9%
53.4%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.47.8
32.0%
36.6%23.4
🏀 Free throws19.414.3
73.7%
77.4%14.3
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bayern
WLWWLWLWWW
Valencia
LWLWWWWWLL
#15
League position
#14
+6.8
Net rating
+5.9
114.8
Offensive rating
108.3
108.0
Defensive rating
102.4
54.9%
Effective FG%
52.8%
50.9%
Opp. effective FG%
52.2%
16.6%
Turnover %
19.3%
32.9%
Off. rebound %
31.6%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.32
38.1%
3-point %
32.0%
54.9%
Assist %
59.3%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence114.8 · 108.3Defence108.0 · 102.4Shooting54.9% · 52.8%3-point %38.1% · 32.0%Ball care16.6% · 19.3%Off. rebounds32.9% · 31.6%Free throws0.23 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Bayern   ■ Valencia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Bayern wins
4
Valencia wins
DateGameScore
31/01/23Valencia v Bayern82-73
15/12/22Bayern v Valencia97-92
25/03/21Valencia v Bayern83-76
13/11/20Bayern v Valencia90-79
11/03/15Bayern v Valencia60-94
04/03/15Valencia v Bayern80-58
Bayernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/12/23ATubingen96-74
22/12/23HMonaco80-91
20/12/23HAnadolu Efes86-71
17/12/23HUlm95-80
14/12/23AReal Madrid73-88
10/12/23ABonn86-78
08/12/23AOlympiacos69-77
05/12/23HOlimpia Milano91-84 OT
30/11/23HVirtus Bologna90-76
26/11/23AVechta85-81
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/12/23HGranada75-81
21/12/23HVirtus Bologna79-71
19/12/23HPartizan67-72
17/12/23HMoraBanc Andorra86-82
15/12/23AOlympiacos63-56
10/12/23AMurcia85-77 OT
08/12/23ALyon-Villeurbanne78-55
06/12/23HCrvena zvezda85-81
03/12/23HBilbao79-85
01/12/23HBaskonia84-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bayern
Euroleague 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL44%
HomeWWWWL71%
AwayLLWLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %44%71%22%
Points / game79.284.075.6
Allowed / game81.378.783.3
Point differential-2.1+5.3-7.8
Avg total160.6162.7158.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%43%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %12%14%11%
Valencia
Euroleague 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW56%
HomeLLWLW67%
AwayLLLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %56%67%43%
Points / game74.176.670.9
Allowed / game73.874.972.4
Point differential+0.2+1.7-1.6
Avg total147.9151.4143.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%0%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)60% (5)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid1716194%87.574.5+12.9
2 Virtus Bologna1712571%82.480.4+2.1
3 Barcelona1611569%83.278.3+4.9
4 Panathinaikos1710759%82.179.5+2.6
5 Fenerbahce1710759%82.181.2+0.9
6 Maccabi Tel Aviv1710759%86.586.7-0.2
7 Monaco169756%80.779.8+0.9
8 Valencia169756%74.173.8+0.2
9 Baskonia169756%83.183.1+0.0
10 Partizan179853%85.284.2+1.0
11 Olympiacos168850%76.474.4+2.0
12 Bayern167944%79.281.3-2.1
13 Anadolu Efes1771041%81.287.1-5.8
14 Olimpia Milano1661038%79.277.8+1.4
15 Crvena zvezda1761135%80.880.6+0.2
16 Zalgiris Kaunas1751229%78.581.2-2.6
17 Alba Berlin1631319%76.585.8-9.2
18 Lyon-Villeurbanne1721512%78.487.8-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bayern1622222585
Valencia1623232284
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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