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BC Wolves vs Neptunas Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 May 2025
Tip-off: 13:50
Final 96-84
25-21 27-21 26-21 18-21
Position#4
Record17-15
FormWLLLW
Points / game90.1
Allowed / game89.5
vs
Position#7
Record11-21
FormLLLWL
Points / game83.8
Allowed / game88.4
LithuaniaLKL· Avia Solutions Group Arena
Domestic2024-25
Meetings · BC Wolves v Neptunas
11 May 2025
WOL96
NEP84
07 Dec 2024
WOL102
NEP86
18 May 2024
WOL91
NEP80
13 May 2024
WOL91
NEP84
27 Jan 2024
WOL92
NEP73
15 Feb 2023
WOL79
NEP63
17 Nov 2022
WOL84
NEP90
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BC Wolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BC WolvesLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWolves
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#3
L
64-78
64
78
-14
51avg 82
A30/03
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
88-92
88
92
-4
77avg 82
A06/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
94-99
94
99
-5
91avg 82
H12/04
LKL
Neptunas
#7
W
97-85
97
85
+12
98avg 82
A15/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
69-81
69
81
-12
65avg 82
H19/04
LKL
Siauliai
#8
W
92-85
92
85
+7
96avg 82
A22/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
L
88-92
88
92
-4
81avg 82
H27/04
LKL
Juventus
#6
L
86-94
86
94
-8
81avg 82
A30/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
89-102
89
102
-13
84avg 82
H04/05
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
107-106
107
106
+1
100avg 82
A07/05
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-24
18-23
15-14
16-17
19-33
26-15
23-21
20-23
22-35
27-10
25-24
20-30
22-18
15-23
30-23
30-21
18-18
22-19
20-22
9-22
21-21
28-29
22-20
21-15
21-18
25-27
21-24
21-23
23-27
24-27
21-23
18-17
22-28
25-14
26-28
16-32
20-26
29-27
23-25
35-28
178.8Avg total
87.4Scored
91.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)90.189.5179.6+0.653%
Season at home (15)91.189.7180.7+1.453%
Season away (17)89.289.4178.5-0.253%
Last 10 (10)87.491.4178.8-4.030%
Last 5 (5)92.495.8188.2-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)82.892.0174.8-9.20%
vs Similar (16)87.888.7176.5-0.944%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)92.988.6181.4+4.367%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
67-80
67
80
-13
66avg 80
H30/03
LKL
Jonava
#5
L
97-98
97
98
-1
97avg 80
H05/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
92-85
92
85
+7
94avg 80
H12/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#4
L
85-97
85
97
-12
85avg 80
H15/04
LKL
Juventus
#6
L
94-100
94
100
-6
92avg 80
A21/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
85-103
85
103
-18
79avg 80
A24/04
LKL
Siauliai
#8
L
90-95
90
95
-5
89avg 80
H27/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
L
79-84
79
84
-5
69avg 80
A30/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
96-90
96
90
+6
97avg 80
H04/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
49-84
49
84
-35
38avg 80
A07/05
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-20
22-14
15-28
16-18
16-27
24-34
22-21
35-16
14-26
20-24
34-21
24-14
18-22
23-15
23-30
21-30
24-36
18-17
20-25
32-22
16-30
24-21
22-26
23-26
28-26
19-19
14-27
29-23
24-27
23-19
16-18
16-20
27-20
20-18
21-26
28-26
7-20
8-27
18-22
16-15
175.0Avg total
83.4Scored
91.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)83.888.4172.3-4.634%
Season at home (16)82.286.6168.8-4.331%
Season away (16)85.490.3175.8-4.938%
Last 10 (10)83.491.6175.0-8.220%
Last 5 (5)79.891.2171.0-11.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)78.989.5168.5-10.620%
vs Similar (8)83.989.6173.5-5.812%
vs Weaker (7)92.983.1176.0+9.771%
This opponent (BC Wolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -6.6-6.6Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: +3.0+3.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -6.6-6.6Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: -2.2-2.2Q4: +3.0+3.0
BC WolvesNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BC WolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#3
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A30/03
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A06/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H12/04
LKL
Neptunas
#7
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A15/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H19/04
LKL
Siauliai
#8
L
49-50
49
50
-1
A22/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H27/04
LKL
Juventus
#6
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A30/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H04/05
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
49-53
49
53
-4
A07/05
LKL
90.4Avg total
44.2Scored
46.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.345.490.7-0.147%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.843.790.4+3.162%-
Last 30 away (14)43.647.490.9-3.829%-
Last 10 (10)44.246.290.4-2.040%-
Last 5 (5)47.648.896.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)44.046.890.8-2.840%-
vs Similar (16)44.944.289.1+0.856%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)46.646.893.3-0.233%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H30/03
LKL
Jonava
#5
L
40-61
40
61
-21
H05/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
34-50
34
50
-16
H12/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#4
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H15/04
LKL
Juventus
#6
L
42-53
42
53
-11
A21/04
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A24/04
LKL
Siauliai
#8
W
47-45
47
45
+2
H27/04
LKL
Lietkabelis
#3
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A30/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H04/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
15-47
15
47
-32
A07/05
LKL
85.1Avg total
38.9Scored
46.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.644.684.3-5.030%-
Last 30 at home (17)40.943.184.1-2.241%-
Last 30 away (13)37.946.684.5-8.715%-
Last 10 (10)38.946.285.1-7.350%-
Last 5 (5)39.245.484.6-6.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)38.344.582.8-6.140%-
vs Similar (8)39.846.886.5-7.012%-
vs Weaker (7)42.342.684.9-0.329%-
This opponent (BC Wolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
BC Wolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BC Wolves: 86.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.5 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.7 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.718.6
53.6%
55.6%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.39.5
37.5%
35.9%28.5
🏀 Free throws26.920.5
76.2%
75.0%20.5
They take 60.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.7 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.019.3
58.5%
55.6%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.9
34.6%
35.9%26.7
🏀 Free throws22.717.3
76.2%
75.0%17.3
They take 58.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
BC Wolves
WLLLWLWLLL
Neptunas
LWLLLLLWLL
#4
League position
#7
-6.2
Net rating
-10.2
116.2
Offensive rating
108.3
122.4
Defensive rating
118.5
54.8%
Effective FG%
55.6%
59.6%
Opp. effective FG%
59.1%
17.3%
Turnover %
23.7%
32.4%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.45
Free-throw rate
0.39
37.5%
3-point %
34.6%
67.3%
Assist %
72.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence116.2 · 108.3Defence122.4 · 118.5Shooting54.8% · 55.6%3-point %37.5% · 34.6%Ball care17.3% · 23.7%Off. rebounds32.4% · 32.7%Free throws0.45 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)30% · 20%
■ BC Wolves   ■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
BC Wolves wins
3
Neptunas wins
DateGameScore
15/04/25Neptunas v BC Wolves85-97
15/02/25Neptunas v BC Wolves87-83
07/12/24BC Wolves v Neptunas102-86
12/10/24Neptunas v BC Wolves89-74
18/05/24BC Wolves v Neptunas91-80
15/05/24Neptunas v BC Wolves95-76
13/05/24BC Wolves v Neptunas91-84
01/05/24Neptunas v BC Wolves85-86
27/01/24BC Wolves v Neptunas92-73
08/10/23Neptunas v BC Wolves66-98
BC Wolveslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/05/25ANevezis107-106
04/05/25HRytas89-102
30/04/25AJuventus86-94
27/04/25HLietkabelis88-92
22/04/25ASiauliai92-85
19/04/25HZalgiris Kaunas69-81
15/04/25ANeptunas97-85
12/04/25HNevezis94-99
06/04/25ARytas88-92
30/03/25ALietkabelis64-78
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/05/25AZalgiris Kaunas49-84
04/05/25HNevezis96-90
30/04/25ALietkabelis79-84
27/04/25HSiauliai90-95
24/04/25ARytas85-103
21/04/25AJuventus94-100
15/04/25HBC Wolves85-97
12/04/25HRytas92-85
05/04/25HJonava97-98
30/03/25HZalgiris Kaunas67-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

BC Wolves
LKL 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW53%
HomeWLLLL53%
AwayLWWLW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321517
Win %53%53%53%
Points / game90.191.189.2
Allowed / game89.589.789.4
Point differential+0.6+1.4-0.2
Avg total179.6180.7178.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%33%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)43% (7)50% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Neptunas
LKL 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL34%
HomeLWLLW31%
AwayLLLLL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %34%31%38%
Points / game83.882.285.4
Allowed / game88.486.690.3
Point differential-4.6-4.3-4.9
Avg total172.3168.8175.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%12%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)33% (3)25% (4)
Overtime %3%0%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas3230294%91.873.2+18.6
2 Rytas3327682%92.883.0+9.8
3 Jonava32191359%90.490.2+0.1
4 BC Wolves32171553%90.189.5+0.6
5 Lietkabelis33171652%83.281.8+1.4
6 Juventus33151845%84.787.0-2.3
7 Siauliai33132039%90.995.5-4.5
8 Neptunas32112134%83.888.4-4.6
9 Nevezis33112233%90.489.6+0.8
10 Mazeikiai333309%79.398.6-19.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
BC Wolves2527261896
Neptunas2121212184
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