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Canberra Capitals W vs Adelaide Lightning W Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 15 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 08:00
Scheduled
Position#4
Record3-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game82.0
Canberra Capitals W
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#6
Record2-3
FormLLLWW
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game82.6
AustraliaNBL WRound 14· AIS Arena
Women2026-27
Meetings · Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W
15 Jan 2027
CANB v ADEL
upcoming
11 Dec 2026
CANB v ADEL
upcoming
09 Dec 2025
CANB76
ADEL71
11 Jan 2025
CANB91
ADEL76
21 Dec 2023
CANB86
ADEL73
05 Nov 2023
CANB79
ADEL82
18 Feb 2023
CANB72
ADEL78
02 Feb 2023
CANB97
ADEL90
19 Dec 2021
CANB62
ADEL88
04 Dec 2020
CANB85
ADEL65
01 Feb 2020
CANB73
ADEL71
13 Oct 2019
CANB90
ADEL83
16 Feb 2019
CANB93
ADEL73
09 Feb 2019
CANB88
ADEL67
21 Oct 2018
CANB79
ADEL75
17 Dec 2017
CANB88
ADEL87
08 Oct 2017
CANB84
ADEL77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Canberra Capitals W win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Canberra Capitals WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
72-89
72
89
-17
66avg 62
A23/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
73-77
73
77
-4
59avg 62
H25/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
62-78
62
78
-16
53avg 62
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
62avg 62
H03/02
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
76-67
76
67
+9
73avg 62
H07/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#8
W
94-92
94
92
+2
no box
H17/10
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
70-82
70
82
-12
no box
A23/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#7
W
77-68
77
68
+9
no box
A31/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#8
W
97-83
97
83
+14
no box
A07/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
78-85
78
85
-7
no box
H15/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-22
21-24
13-20
15-23
15-11
18-28
19-18
21-20
22-26
11-17
15-20
14-15
26-20
18-24
16-20
15-18
19-12
16-21
19-20
22-14
27-15
25-22
21-31
21-24
19-23
17-21
17-19
17-19
26-17
23-19
11-15
17-17
26-20
21-22
19-19
31-22
20-21
17-29
31-19
10-16
157.7Avg total
77.4Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)83.282.0165.2+1.260%
Season at home (2)86.088.5174.5-2.550%
Season away (3)81.377.7159.0+3.767%
Last 10 (10)77.480.3157.7-2.940%
Last 5 (5)83.282.0165.2+1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)72.181.6153.8-9.525%
vs Similar ◀ (11)72.873.6146.5-0.855%
vs Weaker (3)89.381.0170.3+8.3100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
58-82
58
82
-24
no box
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
61-67
61
67
-6
54avg 64
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
85-78
85
78
+7
90avg 64
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
77-82
77
82
-5
70avg 64
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
64-77
64
77
-13
44avg 64
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
68-95
68
95
-27
no box
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
68-86
68
86
-18
no box
H20/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
82-90
82
90
-8
no box
H24/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
81-74
81
74
+7
no box
A01/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
W
100-68
100
68
+32
no box
H07/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
21-22
9-19
8-19
11-15
13-21
17-16
20-15
24-16
22-32
16-21
23-9
20-17
18-25
24-13
15-27
19-25
16-23
15-12
14-17
16-17
25-31
15-22
12-25
24-17
19-23
15-19
10-27
17-26
17-15
26-18
22-31
27-22
20-15
12-17
22-20
27-18
23-24
22-14
28-12
154.3Avg total
74.4Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)79.882.6162.4-2.840%
Season at home (3)83.381.3164.7+2.033%
Season away (2)74.584.5159.0-10.050%
Last 10 (10)74.479.9154.3-5.530%
Last 5 (5)79.882.6162.4-2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)70.185.8155.8-15.70%
vs Similar ◀ (11)81.977.5159.4+4.564%
vs Weaker (2)84.072.0156.0+12.0100%
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -2.8-2.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -4.0-4.0Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: -2.8-2.8
Canberra Capitals WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Canberra Capitals WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bendigo W
#3
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A23/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#3
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H25/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H03/02
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H07/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#8
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H17/10
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
36-44
36
44
-8
A23/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#7
W
49-36
49
36
+13
A31/10
NBL W
Bendigo W
#8
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A07/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H15/11
NBL W
82.4Avg total
41.0Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.340.678.9-2.333%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.340.780.1-1.440%-
Last 30 away (15)37.240.577.7-3.327%-
Last 10 (10)41.041.482.4-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)44.241.886.0+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)37.643.280.8-5.619%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)36.337.573.7-1.236%-
vs Weaker (3)49.338.387.7+11.0100%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H20/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
34-41
34
41
-7
H24/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A01/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H07/11
NBL W
82.5Avg total
39.9Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.143.683.7-3.530%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.443.382.7-3.940%-
Last 30 away (15)40.943.984.8-3.120%-
Last 10 (10)39.942.682.5-2.730%-
Last 5 (5)43.041.684.6+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.745.182.8-7.412%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)43.141.684.7+1.555%-
vs Weaker (2)44.541.586.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Canberra Capitals W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Canberra Capitals Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Canberra Capitals W: 68.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.8 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.920.9
42.7%
47.8%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.05.6
32.9%
32.8%16.8
🏀 Free throws15.19.6
63.6%
73.3%9.6
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 17.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 26% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.417.2
46.0%
47.8%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.5
33.6%
32.8%28.5
🏀 Free throws11.89.3
78.8%
73.3%9.3
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Canberra Capitals W
LWWLWWLLLL
Adelaide Lightning W
WWLLLLLWLL
#4
League position
#6
-12.1
Net rating
-10.8
82.6
Offensive rating
87.2
94.7
Defensive rating
98.0
44.5%
Effective FG%
47.9%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
16.8%
Turnover %
18.7%
30.7%
Off. rebound %
24.7%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.18
32.9%
3-point %
33.6%
64.5%
Assist %
66.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence82.6 · 87.2Defence94.7 · 98.0Shooting44.5% · 47.9%3-point %32.9% · 33.6%Ball care16.8% · 18.7%Off. rebounds30.7% · 24.7%Free throws0.23 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Canberra Capitals W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Canberra Capitals W wins
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
20/01/26Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W61-67
09/12/25Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W76-71
01/11/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W73-65
11/01/25Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W91-76
03/01/25Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W77-88
15/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W68-67
28/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Canberra Capitals W84-67
21/12/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W86-73
05/11/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W79-82
18/02/23Canberra Capitals W v Adelaide Lightning W72-78
Canberra Capitals Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HTownsville W78-85
07/11/26ABendigo W97-83
31/10/26AGeelong Venom W77-68
23/10/26ASydney W70-82
17/10/26HBendigo W94-92
07/02/26HGeelong Venom W76-67
03/02/26HSouthside W75-82
31/01/26ATownsville W62-78
25/01/26HBendigo W73-77
23/01/26ABendigo W72-89
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HTasmania Jewels W100-68
01/11/26ASouthside W81-74
24/10/26HPerth Lynx W82-90
20/10/26HTownsville W68-86
18/10/26ASydney W68-95
08/02/26HSouthside W64-77
31/01/26ASouthside W77-82
24/01/26AGeelong Venom W85-78
20/01/26HCanberra Capitals W61-67
17/01/26ASouthside W58-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Canberra Capitals W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL60%
HomeWL50%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game83.286.081.3
Allowed / game82.088.577.7
Point differential+1.2-2.5+3.7
Avg total165.2174.5159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW40%
HomeLLW33%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%33%50%
Points / game79.883.374.5
Allowed / game82.681.384.5
Point differential-2.8+2.0-10.0
Avg total162.4164.7159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Perth Lynx W65183%94.284.0+10.2
2 Townsville W75271%85.977.6+8.3
3 Sydney W75271%83.678.1+5.4
4 Canberra Capitals W53260%83.282.0+1.2
5 Tasmania Jewels W53260%88.089.0-1.0
6 Adelaide Lightning W52340%79.882.6-2.8
7 Geelong Venom W62433%75.382.3-7.0
8 Bendigo W61517%82.387.2-4.8
9 Southside W71614%76.486.9-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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