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Illawarra Hawks vs Cairns Taipans Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 06:00
Final 100-110
27-28 23-29 27-29 23-24
Position#10
Record1-5
FormLLWLL
Points / game99.7
Allowed / game107.7
Illawarra Hawks
Australia
vs
Cairns Taipans 🏆
Australia
Position#4
Record3-3
FormWLLWW
Points / game88.5
Allowed / game94.2
AustraliaNBLRound 4· WIN Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Illawarra Hawks v Cairns Taipans
02 Jan 2027
ILLA v CAIR
upcoming
11 Oct 2026
ILLA100
CAIR110
03 Jan 2026
ILLA96
CAIR78
06 Dec 2025
ILLA76
CAIR93
03 Jan 2025
ILLA105
CAIR108
18 Jan 2024
ILLA92
CAIR93
26 Oct 2023
ILLA84
CAIR83
02 Jan 2023
ILLA89
CAIR96
18 Feb 2022
ILLA79
CAIR54
12 Feb 2022
ILLA87
CAIR81
03 Feb 2017
ILLA90
CAIR73
30 Oct 2016
ILLA83
CAIR98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illawarra Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cairns Taipans winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
95-106
95
106
-11
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
94-120
94
120
-26
H13/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
100-91
100
91
+9
A15/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
103-70
103
70
+33
A18/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
81-95
81
95
-14
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
95-103
95
103
-8
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
100-121
100
121
-21
A27/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
W
114-92
114
92
+22
H02/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#6
L
96-113
96
113
-17
A04/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
112-122
112
122
-10
H09/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-33
25-28
30-23
15-22
19-34
27-24
23-26
25-36
29-24
25-21
23-18
23-28
26-18
28-16
27-17
22-19
24-28
23-26
14-22
20-19
18-25
24-25
24-23
29-30
27-31
18-34
26-33
29-23
35-21
30-14
27-32
22-25
23-23
18-36
32-26
23-28
22-32
25-35
26-24
39-31
202.3Avg total
99.0Scored
103.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)99.7107.7207.3-8.017%
Season at home (2)113.0107.0220.0+6.050%
Season away (4)93.0108.0201.0-15.00%
Last 10 (10)99.0103.3202.3-4.330%
Last 5 (5)103.4110.2213.6-6.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)95.2104.9200.1-9.820%
vs Similar (5)97.491.6189.0+5.860%
vs Weaker (5)98.484.2182.6+14.280%
This opponent (Cairns Taipans) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Cairns TaipansAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
L
84-98
84
98
-14
A06/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A08/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
85-89
85
89
-4
H12/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
84-115
84
115
-31
A19/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
90-111
90
111
-21
A20/09
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
93-87
93
87
+6
H23/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
69-83
69
83
-14
A27/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
75-98
75
98
-23
A30/09
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
107-95
107
95
+12
A03/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
97-91
97
91
+6
H08/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-22
18-28
19-18
25-30
24-13
19-23
18-21
20-15
19-19
27-21
14-16
25-33
24-24
20-37
22-27
18-27
26-32
27-27
20-31
17-21
32-16
13-28
21-22
27-21
17-32
17-20
17-15
18-16
18-19
17-23
25-30
15-26
18-14
29-32
25-35
35-14
23-17
24-33
27-22
23-19
180.4Avg total
86.5Scored
93.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)88.594.2182.7-5.750%
Season at home (2)95.089.0184.0+6.0100%
Season away (4)85.296.8182.0-11.525%
Last 10 (10)86.593.9180.4-7.440%
Last 5 (5)88.290.8179.0-2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)87.298.7185.9-11.428%
vs Similar (5)84.088.4172.4-4.460%
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -6.1-6.1Q3Q3: +0.8+0.8Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: -1.4-1.4Q4: +0.1+0.1
Illawarra HawksCairns Taipans
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-58
46
58
-12
H13/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
54-45
54
45
+9
A15/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
54-34
54
34
+20
A18/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
45-65
45
65
-20
A27/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
W
65-35
65
35
+30
H02/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#6
L
41-59
41
59
-18
A04/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
47-67
47
67
-20
H09/10
NBL
101.9Avg total
49.1Scored
52.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.349.997.1-2.633%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.849.095.8-2.229%-
Last 30 away (16)47.750.698.3-2.938%-
Last 10 (10)49.152.8101.9-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)48.055.2103.2-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)46.351.998.2-5.625%-
vs Similar (5)51.446.297.6+5.260%-
vs Weaker (5)47.045.492.4+1.640%-
This opponent (Cairns Taipans) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Cairns TaipansLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A06/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A08/02
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H12/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
44-61
44
61
-17
A19/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
53-59
53
59
-6
A20/09
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H23/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
34-52
34
52
-18
A27/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A30/09
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A03/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H08/10
NBL
91.4Avg total
43.4Scored
48.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.547.392.8-1.747%-
Last 30 at home (13)47.246.193.3+1.262%-
Last 30 away (17)44.248.292.4-3.935%-
Last 10 (10)43.448.091.4-4.640%-
Last 5 (5)41.646.888.4-5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)45.947.593.4-1.648%-
vs Similar (5)43.646.089.6-2.440%-
vs Weaker ◀no games
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 99.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.625.3
55.5%
56.0%50.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.711.1
36.2%
34.4%33.3
🏀 Free throws20.215.1
74.8%
73.7%15.1
They take 76.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cairns Taipanstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cairns Taipans: 80.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.619.1
55.2%
56.0%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.39.4
30.0%
34.4%28.2
🏀 Free throws16.713.8
82.6%
73.7%13.8
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Illawarra Hawks
LLWLLLWWLL
Cairns Taipans
WWLLWLLLWL
#10
League position
#4
-4.4
Net rating
-7.7
102.3
Offensive rating
92.6
106.8
Defensive rating
100.4
55.0%
Effective FG%
50.4%
54.2%
Opp. effective FG%
52.6%
12.4%
Turnover %
12.6%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.25
36.2%
3-point %
30.0%
60.2%
Assist %
67.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence102.3 · 92.6Defence106.8 · 100.4Shooting55.0% · 50.4%3-point %36.2% · 30.0%Ball care12.4% · 12.6%Free throws0.26 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Illawarra Hawks   ■ Cairns Taipans
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Illawarra Hawks wins
5
Cairns Taipans wins
DateGameScore
03/01/26Illawarra Hawks v Cairns Taipans96-78
06/12/25Illawarra Hawks v Cairns Taipans76-93
07/11/25Cairns Taipans v Illawarra Hawks90-107
23/01/25Cairns Taipans v Illawarra Hawks100-94
03/01/25Illawarra Hawks v Cairns Taipans105-108
19/10/24Cairns Taipans v Illawarra Hawks75-87
21/09/24Cairns Taipans v Illawarra Hawks75-102
18/01/24Illawarra Hawks v Cairns Taipans92-93
11/11/23Cairns Taipans v Illawarra Hawks81-71
26/10/23Illawarra Hawks v Cairns Taipans84-83
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/10/26HTasmania JackJumpers112-122
04/10/26ASouth East Melbourne96-113
02/10/26HAdelaide114-92
27/09/26ASydney100-121
25/09/26ABrisbane Bullets95-103
20/09/26ANew Zealand Breakers81-95
18/02/26ATasmania JackJumpers103-70
15/02/26AMelbourne United100-91
13/02/26HSydney94-120
07/02/26ANew Zealand Breakers95-106
Cairns Taipanslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/10/26HBrisbane Bullets97-91
03/10/26AMelbourne United107-95
30/09/26ANew Zealand Breakers75-98
27/09/26AAdelaide69-83
23/09/26HTasmania JackJumpers93-87
20/09/26ASydney90-111
19/02/26ANew Zealand Breakers84-115
12/02/26HMelbourne United85-89
08/02/26ABrisbane Bullets81-72
06/02/26APerth84-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL17%
HomeWL50%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %17%50%0%
Points / game99.7113.093.0
Allowed / game107.7107.0108.0
Point differential-8.0+6.0-15.0
Avg total207.3220.0201.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Cairns Taipans
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%100%25%
Points / game88.595.085.2
Allowed / game94.289.096.8
Point differential-5.7+6.0-11.5
Avg total182.7184.0182.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tasmania JackJumpers54180%99.695.4+4.2
2 Perth54180%93.292.4+0.8
3 Sydney43175%100.888.0+12.8
4 New Zealand Breakers63350%90.585.5+5.0
5 Melbourne United63350%93.089.8+3.2
6 Cairns Taipans63350%88.594.2-5.7
7 Adelaide73443%88.091.1-3.1
8 Brisbane Bullets52340%91.895.8-4.0
9 South East Melbourne62433%92.092.2-0.2
10 Illawarra Hawks61517%99.7107.7-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Illawarra Hawks27232723100
Cairns Taipans28292924110
← all games of the day
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