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Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 03:30
Final 91-100
24-29 21-25 18-23 28-23
Position#4
Record19-12
FormWWLLW
Points / game92.1
Allowed / game87.5
vs
Position#8
Record11-20
FormLLWLL
Points / game92.6
Allowed / game98.2
AustraliaNBLRound 21· John Cain Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks
13 Feb 2027
MELB v ILLA
upcoming
18 Oct 2026
MELB89
ILLA91
15 Feb 2026
MELB91
ILLA100
18 Dec 2025
MELB97
ILLA75
19 Mar 2025
MELB71
ILLA80
12 Mar 2025
MELB100
ILLA102
13 Dec 2024
MELB93
ILLA106
13 Mar 2024
MELB100
ILLA94
07 Mar 2024
MELB115
ILLA106
18 Feb 2024
MELB92
ILLA87
29 Oct 2023
MELB96
ILLA84
18 Dec 2022
MELB88
ILLA77
02 Apr 2022
MELB90
ILLA96
27 Mar 2022
MELB77
ILLA92
18 Apr 2021
MELB87
ILLA76
21 Mar 2021
MELB75
ILLA65
08 Feb 2020
MELB95
ILLA72
23 Jan 2019
MELB113
ILLA89
29 Oct 2018
MELB99
ILLA93
18 Feb 2018
MELB84
ILLA94
04 Dec 2017
MELB91
ILLA73
06 Feb 2017
MELB78
ILLA72
16 Oct 2016
MELB95
ILLA83
07 Jan 2016
MELB97
ILLA96
11 Oct 2015
MELB93
ILLA81
07 Feb 2015
MELB76
ILLA82
02 Nov 2014
MELB88
ILLA75
27 Dec 2013
MELB74
ILLA67
10 Nov 2013
MELB81
ILLA76
02 Mar 2013
MELB82
ILLA88
25 Nov 2012
MELB66
ILLA74
18 Mar 2012
MELB61
ILLA71
06 Feb 2011
MELB93
ILLA72
07 Nov 2010
MELB82
ILLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
92-87
92
87
+5
89avg 83
A27/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
75-84
75
84
-9
63avg 83
A03/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
92-93
92
93
-1
75avg 83
H07/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
94-97
94
97
-3
86avg 83
A11/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
79-77
79
77
+2
no box
H17/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
98-66
98
66
+32
98avg 83
H21/01
NBL
Perth
#5
W
74-73
74
73
+1
69avg 83
A25/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
95-97
95
97
-2
88avg 83
A30/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
76-87
76
87
-11
51avg 83
H07/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
89-85
89
85
+4
72avg 83
A12/02
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-26
31-19
21-26
12-16
16-19
19-25
15-19
25-21
22-29
23-14
30-33
17-17
23-26
25-30
25-23
21-18
23-21
20-21
18-17
18-18
29-19
28-17
24-14
17-16
12-24
26-16
12-12
24-21
21-28
27-21
25-22
22-26
23-29
16-12
14-26
23-20
19-19
21-27
16-14
33-25
171.0Avg total
86.4Scored
84.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)92.187.5179.6+4.561%
Season at home (15)92.583.3175.8+9.167%
Season away (16)91.891.5183.2+0.256%
Last 10 (10)86.484.6171.0+1.850%
Last 5 (5)86.481.6168.0+4.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)94.894.2189.0+0.525%
vs Similar (9)88.890.2179.0-1.456%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)93.584.8178.2+8.771%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
L
113-124 OT
113
124
-11
108avg 87
A08/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
96-101
96
101
-5
91avg 87
H11/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
87-92
87
92
-5
no box
A16/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
101-91
101
91
+10
102avg 87
A24/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
113-75
113
75
+38
117avg 87
A26/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
104-122
104
122
-18
94avg 87
A29/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
99-106
99
106
-7
89avg 87
H31/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
100-99
100
99
+1
94avg 87
H05/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
95-106
95
106
-11
93avg 87
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
94-120
94
120
-26
83avg 87
H13/02
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-23
25-32
29-24
27-27
25-28
18-21
23-22
30-30
13-18
24-26
21-21
29-27
27-26
33-22
22-26
19-17
22-11
33-20
41-21
17-23
22-28
23-35
29-28
30-31
30-25
24-23
20-32
25-26
27-21
18-30
24-27
31-21
25-33
25-28
30-23
15-22
19-34
27-24
23-26
25-36
203.8Avg total
100.2Scored
103.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)92.698.2190.8-5.635%
Season at home (16)92.996.4189.3-3.644%
Season away (15)92.3100.1192.4-7.727%
Last 10 (10)100.2103.6203.8-3.430%
Last 5 (5)98.4110.6209.0-12.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)91.4102.0193.4-10.622%
vs Similar (6)88.7101.2189.8-12.533%
vs Weaker (6)101.385.0186.3+16.383%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
Melbourne UnitedIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
59-45
59
45
+14
A27/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A03/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H07/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
48-56
48
56
-8
A11/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H17/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H21/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A25/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
48-49
48
49
-1
A30/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H07/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A12/02
NBL
89.4Avg total
45.2Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.444.792.1+2.857%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.940.588.5+7.480%-
Last 30 away (15)46.948.895.7-1.933%-
Last 10 (10)45.244.289.4+1.040%-
Last 5 (5)44.442.486.8+2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)49.551.8101.2-2.225%-
vs Similar (9)44.747.992.6-3.244%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)48.441.389.7+7.171%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A08/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H11/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A16/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
60-48
60
48
+12
A24/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
55-31
55
31
+24
A26/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
45-63
45
63
-18
A29/01
NBL
Perth
#5
W
54-48
54
48
+6
H31/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H05/02
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A07/02
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-58
46
58
-12
H13/02
NBL
99.3Avg total
48.5Scored
50.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.549.195.7-2.633%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.848.495.2-1.633%-
Last 30 away (15)46.349.996.1-3.633%-
Last 10 (10)48.550.899.3-2.330%-
Last 5 (5)48.056.2104.2-8.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)44.849.594.3-4.728%-
vs Similar (6)47.751.599.2-3.833%-
vs Weaker (6)50.545.796.2+4.850%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 84.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.821.4
50.0%
54.6%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.39.3
31.7%
33.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws18.413.6
73.9%
74.8%13.6
They take 72.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 100.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.8 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.228.4
58.9%
54.6%56.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.39.5
34.8%
33.3%28.5
🏀 Free throws19.615.2
77.6%
74.8%15.2
They take 75.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WLLWWWLLLW
Illawarra Hawks
LLWLLWWLLL
#4
League position
#8
-0.8
Net rating
-1.2
98.8
Offensive rating
105.2
99.6
Defensive rating
106.4
49.0%
Effective FG%
56.5%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
55.3%
12.8%
Turnover %
13.4%
25.3%
Off. rebound %
26.2%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.26
31.7%
3-point %
34.8%
61.6%
Assist %
61.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence98.8 · 105.2Defence99.6 · 106.4Shooting49.0% · 56.5%3-point %31.7% · 34.8%Ball care12.8% · 13.4%Off. rebounds25.3% · 26.2%Free throws0.26 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
12/02/26ACairns Taipans89-85
07/02/26HAdelaide76-87
30/01/26ANew Zealand Breakers95-97
25/01/26APerth74-73
21/01/26HBrisbane Bullets98-66
17/01/26HTasmania JackJumpers79-77
11/01/26ASydney94-97
07/01/26HCairns Taipans92-93
03/01/26ATasmania JackJumpers75-84
27/12/25ABrisbane Bullets92-87
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/02/26HSydney94-120
07/02/26ANew Zealand Breakers95-106
05/02/26HAdelaide100-99
31/01/26HPerth99-106
29/01/26ASydney104-122
26/01/26ABrisbane Bullets113-75
24/01/26ATasmania JackJumpers101-91
16/01/26APerth87-92
11/01/26HNew Zealand Breakers96-101
08/01/26ASouth East Melbourne113-124 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW61%
HomeLLWWL67%
AwayLLWLW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %61%67%56%
Points / game92.192.591.8
Allowed / game87.583.391.5
Point differential+4.5+9.1+0.2
Avg total179.6175.8183.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%47%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (11)50% (4)71% (7)
Overtime %6%7%6%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL35%
HomeWLLWL44%
AwayLWWLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %35%44%27%
Points / game92.692.992.3
Allowed / game98.296.4100.1
Point differential-5.6-3.6-7.7
Avg total190.8189.3192.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)50% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %6%6%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide3223972%92.887.6+5.1
2 Sydney3122971%98.687.7+10.9
3 South East Melbourne32221069%101.092.7+8.3
4 Perth31201165%91.285.9+5.2
5 Melbourne United31191261%92.187.5+4.5
6 Tasmania JackJumpers32141844%87.686.9+0.7
7 New Zealand Breakers32122038%90.892.9-2.1
8 Illawarra Hawks31112035%92.698.2-5.6
9 Cairns Taipans3292328%83.496.2-12.8
10 Brisbane Bullets3262619%82.396.2-13.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne United2421182891
Illawarra Hawks29252323100
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