Melbourne Tigers vs Ballarat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 26 Jul 2025

Tip-off: 08:00

Final 89-77

19-21 26-20 24-13 20-23

Position#4

Record14-8

FormLLWWW

Points / game87.6

Allowed / game82.1

Melbourne Tigers 🏆

Ballarat

Position#5

Record14-8

FormLWWWW

Points / game87.9

Allowed / game88.9

NBL1 South

Other2025

Meetings · Melbourne Tigers v Ballarat

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne Tigers winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Ballarat winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne Tigers Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Knox

85-78

A14/06

NBL1 South

Hobart Chargers

79-91

-12

H15/06

NBL1 South

Mt Gambier

95-84

+11

A20/06

NBL1 South

NW Tasmania

#18

98-83

+15

H28/06

NBL1 South

Bendigo Braves

#16

85-66

+19

H29/06

NBL1 South

Sandringham Sabres

71-92

-21

A05/07

NBL1 South

Ringwood

82-93

-11

A08/07

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

#19

87-77

+10

H11/07

NBL1 South

Casey Cavaliers

#10

97-94

H18/07

NBL1 South

Waverley

#13

102-99

102

A19/07

NBL1 South

22-16

17-19

24-22

22-21

31-22

15-27

22-22

11-20

16-24

25-19

40-19

14-22

25-20

20-20

21-16

32-27

17-26

17-16

20-13

31-11

17-22

16-27

18-22

20-21

26-19

15-33

25-15

16-26

25-10

22-23

22-26

18-18

28-19

17-20

22-27

30-28

21-29

28-20

23-21

30-29

173.8Avg total

88.1Scored

85.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (22)	87.6	82.1	169.8	+5.5	64%
Season at home (11)	87.1	80.5	167.6	+6.5	64%
Season away (11)	88.2	83.7	171.9	+4.5	64%
Last 10 (10)	88.1	85.7	173.8	+2.4	70%
Last 5 (5)	87.8	91.0	178.8	-3.2	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	86.4	82.8	169.2	+3.6	60%
vs Similar (14)	77.6	84.0	161.6	-6.4	29%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	91.1	78.0	169.1	+13.1	91%

This opponent (Ballarat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Ballarat

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Keilor Thunder

#15

66-77

-11

A14/06

NBL1 South

Nunawading

#11

96-83

+13

A15/06

NBL1 South

Frankston

#12

86-84

H21/06

NBL1 South

Sandringham Sabres

97-118

118

-21

H28/06

NBL1 South

Ringwood

102-61

102

+41

A29/06

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

82-85

-3

H05/07

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#15

79-69

+10

H11/07

NBL1 South

Dandenong

#14

93-73

+20

H12/07

NBL1 South

Knox

95-92

A19/07

NBL1 South

Casey Cavaliers

#10

79-73

A20/07

NBL1 South

21-22

16-10

14-23

15-22

24-34

22-21

25-12

25-16

16-34

26-18

24-16

20-16

24-34

23-23

27-36

23-25

26-24

29-10

20-6

27-21

26-24

20-20

15-28

21-13

25-22

18-18

13-11

23-18

33-17

23-20

20-18

17-18

22-30

24-33

27-11

22-18

15-26

23-12

22-17

19-18

169.0Avg total

87.5Scored

81.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (22)	87.9	88.9	176.7	-1.0	64%
Season at home (11)	88.9	89.5	178.5	-0.6	64%
Season away (11)	86.8	88.2	175.0	-1.4	64%
Last 10 (10)	87.5	81.5	169.0	+6.0	70%
Last 5 (5)	85.6	78.4	164.0	+7.2	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)	82.5	96.2	178.7	-13.6	31%
vs Similar (8)	88.5	80.5	169.0	+8.0	88%
vs Weaker (9)	90.1	84.8	174.9	+5.3	78%

This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Melbourne TigersBallarat

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.2	21.6	43.8	+0.6	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.1	21.7	43.9	+0.4	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	22.2	21.4	43.7	+0.8	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.8	20.7	43.5	+2.1	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.4	19.8	43.2	+3.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	23.2	26.0	49.2	-2.8	40%	-
vs Similar (14)	21.0	20.4	41.4	+0.6	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	23.3	21.1	44.4	+2.2	64%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.9	25.5	48.4	-2.6	40%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	24.8	24.3	49.1	+0.5	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.9	26.7	47.6	-5.7	20%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.2	26.7	49.9	-3.5	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	24.2	23.8	48.0	+0.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)	21.1	26.8	47.8	-5.7	31%	-
vs Similar (8)	23.2	25.4	48.6	-2.1	38%	-
vs Weaker (9)	25.1	23.8	48.9	+1.3	56%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.7	20.8	41.5	-0.2	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.6	20.7	42.4	+0.9	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.8	20.9	40.8	-1.1	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.2	22.4	41.6	-3.2	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.6	24.6	44.2	-5.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	20.6	17.8	38.4	+2.8	60%	-
vs Similar (14)	19.8	22.2	42.0	-2.4	43%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	21.8	20.5	42.3	+1.4	45%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.2	20.6	41.8	+0.6	43%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	21.1	20.1	41.3	+1.0	40%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.3	21.1	42.4	+0.1	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.4	18.5	40.9	+3.9	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	20.6	42.2	+1.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)	19.8	23.0	42.8	-3.2	23%	-
vs Similar (8)	21.5	17.9	39.4	+3.6	62%	-
vs Weaker (9)	22.9	19.7	42.6	+3.2	56%	-

Melbourne TigersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Knox

39-35

A14/06

NBL1 South

Hobart Chargers

46-49

-3

H15/06

NBL1 South

Mt Gambier

41-43

-2

A20/06

NBL1 South

NW Tasmania

#18

45-40

H28/06

NBL1 South

Bendigo Braves

#16

34-42

-8

H29/06

NBL1 South

Sandringham Sabres

33-49

-16

A05/07

NBL1 South

Ringwood

41-52

-11

A08/07

NBL1 South

Diamond Valley

#19

47-33

+14

H11/07

NBL1 South

Casey Cavaliers

#10

45-39

H18/07

NBL1 South

Waverley

#13

49-49

A19/07

NBL1 South

85.1Avg total

42.0Scored

43.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.9	42.4	85.3	+0.5	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	43.8	42.4	86.2	+1.4	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	42.1	42.4	84.4	-0.3	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.0	43.1	85.1	-1.1	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.0	44.4	87.4	-1.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	43.8	43.8	87.6	+0.0	40%	-
vs Similar (14)	40.8	42.6	83.4	-1.8	43%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	45.1	41.5	86.6	+3.5	55%	-

This opponent (Ballarat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Keilor Thunder

#15

37-32

A14/06

NBL1 South

Nunawading

#11

46-55

-9

A15/06

NBL1 South

Frankston

#12

42-52

-10

H21/06

NBL1 South

Sandringham Sabres

47-57

-10

H28/06

NBL1 South

Ringwood

55-34

+21

A29/06

NBL1 South

Kilsyth

46-44

H05/07

NBL1 South

Keilor Thunder

#15

43-40

H11/07

NBL1 South

Dandenong

#14

56-37

+19

H12/07

NBL1 South

Knox

46-63

-17

A19/07

NBL1 South

Casey Cavaliers

#10

38-38

A20/07

NBL1 South

90.8Avg total

45.6Scored

45.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	44.1	46.1	90.2	-2.1	43%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	45.9	44.5	90.4	+1.5	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	42.2	47.8	90.0	-5.6	27%	-
Last 10 (10)	45.6	45.2	90.8	+0.4	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	45.8	44.4	90.2	+1.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)	40.9	49.8	90.7	-8.8	31%	-
vs Similar (8)	44.8	43.2	88.0	+1.5	38%	-
vs Weaker (9)	48.0	43.4	91.4	+4.6	67%	-

This opponent (Melbourne Tigers) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.3	18.8	39.1	+1.5	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.2	19.2	38.4	+0.0	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	21.2	18.4	39.6	+2.9	69%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.7	20.3	44.0	+3.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.0	22.2	44.2	-0.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	26.8	19.0	45.8	+7.8	100%	-
vs Similar (14)	17.4	19.5	36.9	-2.1	36%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	21.1	17.7	38.8	+3.4	73%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.9	21.2	42.1	-0.2	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	21.1	21.8	42.9	-0.7	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.8	20.5	41.3	+0.3	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.7	17.8	38.5	+2.9	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	17.0	36.4	+2.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)	21.2	23.7	44.8	-2.5	31%	-
vs Similar (8)	21.5	18.5	40.0	+3.0	75%	-
vs Weaker (9)	20.1	19.9	40.0	+0.2	44%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.4	20.0	40.4	+0.4	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.4	19.4	41.8	+3.1	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.6	20.6	39.2	-2.0	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.4	22.3	44.7	+0.1	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.8	24.4	47.2	-1.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	15.8	20.0	35.8	-4.2	0%	-
vs Similar (14)	18.5	21.1	39.6	-2.6	36%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	24.9	18.7	43.6	+6.2	82%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.4	21.3	42.7	+0.1	43%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	21.8	20.5	42.3	+1.3	40%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.0	22.0	43.0	-1.0	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.2	18.5	39.7	+2.7	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.4	17.0	37.4	+3.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)	20.5	22.7	43.2	-2.2	23%	-
vs Similar (8)	22.2	18.8	41.0	+3.5	75%	-
vs Weaker (9)	22.0	21.4	43.4	+0.6	44%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.7	38.8	79.5	+1.9	50%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	41.6	38.6	80.2	+3.1	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	39.9	39.0	78.9	+0.9	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	46.1	42.6	88.7	+3.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.8	46.6	91.4	-1.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)	42.6	39.0	81.6	+3.6	60%	-
vs Similar (14)	35.9	40.6	76.4	-4.7	21%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	46.0	36.5	82.5	+9.5	82%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.3	42.4	84.8	-0.1	43%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	42.9	42.3	85.2	+0.5	47%	-
Last 30 away (15)	41.8	42.5	84.3	-0.7	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.9	36.3	78.2	+5.6	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.8	34.0	73.8	+5.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)	41.6	46.4	88.0	-4.8	23%	-
vs Similar (8)	43.8	37.2	81.0	+6.5	75%	-
vs Weaker (9)	42.1	41.3	83.4	+0.8	44%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Melbourne Tigers wins

Ballarat wins

Date	Game	Score
10/05/25	Ballarat v Melbourne Tigers	78-103
29/06/24	Ballarat v Melbourne Tigers	87-81
18/05/24	Melbourne Tigers v Ballarat	80-78
04/06/23	Melbourne Tigers v Ballarat	106-88
01/04/23	Ballarat v Melbourne Tigers	92-68
07/08/22	Melbourne Tigers v Ballarat	86-78
21/05/22	Ballarat v Melbourne Tigers	86-72
27/06/21	Melbourne Tigers v Ballarat	77-92
20/07/19	Ballarat v Melbourne Tigers	78-86
27/05/17	Ballarat v Melbourne Tigers	99-83

Melbourne Tigerslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
19/07/25	A	Waverley	102-99
18/07/25	H	Casey Cavaliers	97-94
11/07/25	H	Diamond Valley	87-77
08/07/25	A	Ringwood	82-93
05/07/25	A	Sandringham Sabres	71-92
29/06/25	H	Bendigo Braves	85-66
28/06/25	H	NW Tasmania	98-83
20/06/25	A	Mt Gambier	95-84
15/06/25	H	Hobart Chargers	79-91
14/06/25	A	Knox	85-78

Ballaratlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
20/07/25	A	Casey Cavaliers	79-73
19/07/25	A	Knox	95-92
12/07/25	H	Dandenong	93-73
11/07/25	H	Keilor Thunder	79-69
05/07/25	H	Kilsyth	82-85
29/06/25	A	Ringwood	102-61
28/06/25	H	Sandringham Sabres	97-118
21/06/25	H	Frankston	86-84
15/06/25	A	Nunawading	96-83
14/06/25	A	Keilor Thunder	66-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne Tigers

NBL1 South 2025

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLWWW	64%
Home	LWWWW	64%
Away	WWLLW	64%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	22	11	11
Win %	64%	64%	64%
Points / game	87.6	87.1	88.2
Allowed / game	82.1	80.5	83.7
Point differential	+5.5	+6.5	+4.5
Avg total	169.8	167.6	171.9
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	41%	45%	36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (6)	50% (2)	50% (4)
Overtime %	5%	0%	9%

Ballarat

NBL1 South 2025

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWW	64%
Home	WLLWW	64%
Away	LWWWW	64%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	22	11	11
Win %	64%	64%	64%
Points / game	87.9	88.9	86.8
Allowed / game	88.9	89.5	88.2
Point differential	-1.0	-0.6	-1.4
Avg total	176.7	178.5	175.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	32%	45%	18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	83% (6)	67% (3)	100% (3)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Knox	22	17	5	77%	91.7	84.4	+7.4
2	Mt Gambier	22	16	6	73%	96.5	82.4	+14.1
3	Melbourne Tigers	22	14	8	64%	87.6	82.1	+5.5
4	Eltham	22	14	8	64%	89.9	85.5	+4.4
5	Sandringham Sabres	22	14	8	64%	94.0	89.9	+4.2
6	Kilsyth	22	14	8	64%	89.3	86.0	+3.3
7	Ballarat	22	14	8	64%	87.9	88.9	-1.0
8	Hobart Chargers	21	12	9	57%	88.7	86.5	+2.1
9	Ringwood	22	11	11	50%	95.1	90.8	+4.3
10	Casey Cavaliers	22	11	11	50%	87.8	86.4	+1.4
11	Nunawading	22	11	11	50%	87.4	86.4	+1.0
12	Frankston	22	10	12	45%	92.6	91.0	+1.7
13	Waverley	22	9	13	41%	93.7	96.5	-2.9
14	Dandenong	22	8	14	36%	91.1	95.5	-4.4
15	Keilor Thunder	22	8	14	36%	82.4	88.0	-5.7
16	Bendigo Braves	22	8	14	36%	81.7	94.3	-12.6
17	Geelong	22	7	15	32%	81.9	88.5	-6.5
18	NW Tasmania	21	5	16	24%	86.5	92.4	-5.9
19	Diamond Valley	22	5	17	23%	84.5	95.0	-10.5

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Melbourne Tigers	19	26	24	20	89
Ballarat	21	20	13	23	77

← all games of the day

Melbourne Tigers vs Ballarat Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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