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Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 24 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 91-112
16-21 28-30 23-31 24-30
Position#17
Record15-13
FormLLWLL
Points / game120.6
Allowed / game117.9
vs
Position#11
Record17-12
FormLWWLL
Points / game113.9
Allowed / game112.2
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Toronto Raptors
03 Mar 2027
MIA v TOR
upcoming
02 Mar 2027
MIA v TOR
upcoming
23 Dec 2025
MIA91
TOR112
15 Dec 2025
MIA96
TOR106
12 Dec 2024
MIA114
TOR104
29 Nov 2024
MIA121
TOR111
14 Apr 2024
MIA118
TOR103
12 Apr 2024
MIA125
TOR103
24 Oct 2022
MIA90
TOR98
22 Oct 2022
MIA112
TOR109
29 Jan 2022
MIA120
TOR124
17 Jan 2022
MIA104
TOR99
24 Feb 2021
MIA116
TOR108
03 Aug 2020
MIA103
TOR107
02 Jan 2020
MIA84
TOR76
10 Mar 2019
MIA104
TOR125
26 Dec 2018
MIA104
TOR106
11 Apr 2018
MIA116
TOR109
23 Mar 2017
MIA84
TOR101
11 Mar 2017
MIA104
TOR89
13 May 2016
MIA103
TOR91
09 May 2016
MIA94
TOR87
07 May 2016
MIA91
TOR95
18 Dec 2015
MIA94
TOR108
08 Nov 2015
MIA96
TOR76
11 Apr 2015
MIA104
TOR107
02 Nov 2014
MIA107
TOR102
31 Mar 2014
MIA93
TOR83
05 Jan 2014
MIA102
TOR97
23 Jan 2013
MIA123
TOR116
18 Apr 2012
MIA96
TOR72
05 Feb 2012
MIA95
TOR89
22 Jan 2011
MIA120
TOR103
13 Nov 2010
MIA109
TOR100
28 Mar 2010
MIA97
TOR94
15 Dec 2009
MIA115
TOR95
19 Nov 2008
MIA95
TOR101
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
106-103
106
103
+3
107avg 105
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
135-138
135
138
-3
126avg 105
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
140-123
140
123
+17
139avg 105
H02/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
108-118
108
118
-10
94avg 105
A04/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
105-106
105
106
-1
100avg 105
A06/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
111-127
111
127
-16
100avg 105
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
96-106
96
106
-10
86avg 105
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
106-95
106
95
+11
100avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
116-129
116
129
-13
100avg 105
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
125-132
125
132
-7
118avg 105
A21/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-27
24-20
28-30
25-26
23-36
36-35
32-37
44-30
35-24
41-32
38-26
26-41
33-28
21-36
26-29
28-25
28-30
32-27
19-30
26-19
31-34
24-38
23-29
33-26
22-23
30-23
25-28
19-32
30-27
24-22
23-24
29-22
29-30
29-28
31-34
27-37
37-30
25-36
37-39
26-27
232.5Avg total
114.8Scored
117.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)120.6117.9238.5+2.854%
Season at home (14)121.1117.1238.2+4.171%
Season away (14)120.1118.6238.8+1.536%
Last 10 (10)114.8117.7232.5-2.930%
Last 5 (5)110.8117.8228.6-7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)119.9123.7243.6-3.929%
vs Similar ◀ (15)119.7118.1237.8+1.753%
vs Weaker (8)114.9105.6220.5+9.275%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
111-118 OT
111
118
-7
108avg 105
A29/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
94-116
94
116
-22
83avg 105
A30/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
121-118
121
118
+3
119avg 105
H03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
120-123
120
123
-3
122avg 105
H05/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
86-111
86
111
-25
67avg 105
H06/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
113-121
113
121
-8
104avg 105
H07/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
106-96
106
96
+10
106avg 105
A16/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
111-105
111
105
+6
110avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
96-112
96
112
-16
88avg 105
H21/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
81-96
81
96
-15
69avg 105
A21/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-21
24-31
29-28
17-24
22-41
30-18
25-34
17-23
37-39
28-20
32-23
24-36
26-31
32-36
40-33
22-23
24-18
18-35
28-25
16-33
26-34
33-43
32-20
22-24
23-22
23-30
28-25
32-19
31-25
26-28
26-23
28-29
20-32
31-17
29-34
16-29
18-24
21-25
26-18
16-29
215.5Avg total
103.9Scored
111.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)113.9112.2226.1+1.759%
Season at home (14)113.9112.2226.1+1.657%
Season away (15)113.9112.1226.1+1.860%
Last 10 (10)103.9111.6215.5-7.730%
Last 5 (5)101.4106.0207.4-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)101.5117.5219.0-16.00%
vs Similar ◀ (15)115.3113.9229.1+1.460%
vs Weaker (11)116.9109.1226.0+7.873%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -5.9-5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -5.9-5.9
Miami HeatToronto Raptors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
59-71
59
71
-12
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H02/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
54-64
54
64
-10
A04/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
60-57
60
57
+3
A06/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
55-72
55
72
-17
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A20/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A21/12
NBA
116.9Avg total
58.3Scored
58.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.358.9120.3+2.460%-
Last 30 at home (15)59.856.7116.5+3.180%-
Last 30 away (15)62.961.2124.1+1.740%-
Last 10 (10)58.358.6116.9-0.350%-
Last 5 (5)56.258.2114.4-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)59.662.4122.0-2.929%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)63.461.3124.7+2.167%-
vs Weaker (8)59.051.4110.4+7.675%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A29/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
52-59
52
59
-7
A30/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
58-67
58
67
-9
H05/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
42-53
42
53
-11
H06/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
59-77
59
77
-18
H07/12
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A16/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
57-53
57
53
+4
A19/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H21/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A21/12
NBA
109.7Avg total
52.7Scored
57.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.955.9112.9+1.063%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.456.3113.7+1.171%-
Last 30 away (16)56.555.6112.1+0.956%-
Last 10 (10)52.757.0109.7-4.340%-
Last 5 (5)50.456.0106.4-5.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)53.063.5116.5-10.525%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)57.356.4113.7+0.953%-
vs Weaker (11)57.852.5110.4+5.391%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 114.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.928.5
51.0%
54.8%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.112.9
37.8%
35.8%38.7
🏀 Free throws24.919.1
76.7%
78.1%19.1
They take 90.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 103.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.928.3
51.5%
54.8%56.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.211.9
34.8%
35.8%35.7
🏀 Free throws15.911.6
73.0%
78.1%11.6
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWLLLLWLW
Toronto Raptors
LLWWLLLWLL
#17
League position
#11
-2.8
Net rating
-7.7
110.7
Offensive rating
104.4
113.5
Defensive rating
112.2
53.2%
Effective FG%
51.8%
56.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
13.1%
Turnover %
15.9%
23.6%
Off. rebound %
26.6%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.18
37.8%
3-point %
34.8%
63.8%
Assist %
72.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence110.7 · 104.4Defence113.5 · 112.2Shooting53.2% · 51.8%3-point %37.8% · 34.8%Ball care13.1% · 15.9%Off. rebounds23.6% · 26.6%Free throws0.28 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Toronto Raptors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Toronto Raptors wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/25ANew York Knicks125-132
20/12/25ABoston Celtics116-129
19/12/25ABrooklyn Nets106-95
16/12/25HToronto Raptors96-106
07/12/25HSacramento Kings111-127
06/12/25AOrlando Magic105-106
04/12/25ADallas Mavericks108-118
02/12/25HLos Angeles Clippers140-123
30/11/25HDetroit Pistons135-138
27/11/25HMilwaukee Bucks106-103
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/25ABrooklyn Nets81-96
21/12/25HBoston Celtics96-112
19/12/25AMilwaukee Bucks111-105
16/12/25AMiami Heat106-96
07/12/25HBoston Celtics113-121
06/12/25HCharlotte Hornets86-111
05/12/25HLos Angeles Lakers120-123
03/12/25HPortland Trail Blazers121-118
30/11/25ANew York Knicks94-116
29/11/25ACharlotte Hornets111-118 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL54%
HomeWLWLL71%
AwayLLWLL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %54%71%36%
Points / game120.6121.1120.1
Allowed / game117.9117.1118.6
Point differential+2.8+4.1+1.5
Avg total238.5238.2238.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%29%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %4%7%0%
Toronto Raptors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL59%
HomeWLLLL57%
AwayLLWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %59%57%60%
Points / game113.9113.9113.9
Allowed / game112.2112.2112.1
Point differential+1.7+1.6+1.8
Avg total226.1226.1226.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%36%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)75% (4)-
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2725293%122.3106.7+15.6
2 Detroit Pistons2923679%118.6111.8+6.8
3 Denver Nuggets2821775%125.1116.0+9.1
4 San Antonio Spurs2619773%120.0113.7+6.3
5 Los Angeles Lakers2619773%118.0116.3+1.7
6 New York Knicks2618869%120.3113.0+7.3
7 Minnesota Timberwolves29191066%118.6113.8+4.8
8 Houston Rockets2617965%121.0112.2+8.8
9 Boston Celtics29181162%116.0110.0+6.0
10 Toronto Raptors29171259%113.9112.2+1.7
11 Philadelphia 76ers28161257%116.6115.4+1.2
12 Orlando Magic27151256%117.3114.8+2.6
13 Phoenix Suns27151256%115.2113.2+2.0
14 Miami Heat28151354%120.6117.9+2.8
15 Cleveland Cavaliers30161453%119.3117.5+1.8
16 Golden State Warriors30151550%114.2112.3+1.9
17 Atlanta Hawks30151550%118.7119.4-0.7
18 Chicago Bulls28131546%119.5123.0-3.5
19 Memphis Grizzlies29131645%114.3115.8-1.6
20 Portland Trail Blazers29121741%117.5120.9-3.4
21 Milwaukee Bucks29111838%113.1116.9-3.8
22 Dallas Mavericks30111937%113.0116.9-3.9
23 Utah Jazz28101836%119.6127.1-7.5
24 Charlotte Hornets30102033%115.4118.8-3.4
25 Brooklyn Nets2891932%109.3113.9-4.6
26 New Orleans Pelicans3082227%115.4122.2-6.8
27 Los Angeles Clippers2872125%110.6116.0-5.4
28 Sacramento Kings2972224%111.5122.0-10.5
29 Indiana Pacers2962321%109.7117.9-8.2
30 Washington Wizards2852318%112.6126.1-13.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1628232491
Toronto Raptors21303130112
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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