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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 20 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 129-116
30-29 28-29 34-31 37-27
Position#5
Record15-11
FormWWWLL
Points / game116.2
Allowed / game110.8
vs
Position#17
Record15-11
FormLLLLW
Points / game120.7
Allowed / game116.9
USANBA· TD Garden
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Boston Celtics v Miami Heat
02 Apr 2027
BOS v MIA
upcoming
25 Dec 2026
BOS v MIA
upcoming
06 Feb 2026
BOS98
MIA96
19 Dec 2025
BOS129
MIA116
02 Apr 2025
BOS103
MIA124
02 Dec 2024
BOS108
MIA89
01 May 2024
BOS118
MIA84
24 Apr 2024
BOS101
MIA111
21 Apr 2024
BOS114
MIA94
27 Oct 2023
BOS119
MIA111
29 May 2023
BOS84
MIA103
25 May 2023
BOS110
MIA97
19 May 2023
BOS105
MIA111
17 May 2023
BOS116
MIA123
02 Dec 2022
BOS116
MIA120
30 Nov 2022
BOS134
MIA121
27 May 2022
BOS103
MIA111
23 May 2022
BOS102
MIA82
21 May 2022
BOS103
MIA109
30 Mar 2022
BOS98
MIA106
31 Jan 2022
BOS122
MIA92
11 May 2021
BOS121
MIA129
09 May 2021
BOS124
MIA130
25 Sep 2020
BOS121
MIA108
17 Sep 2020
BOS101
MIA106
15 Sep 2020
BOS114
MIA117
04 Dec 2019
BOS112
MIA93
01 Apr 2019
BOS110
MIA105
21 Jan 2019
BOS107
MIA99
20 Dec 2017
BOS89
MIA90
26 Mar 2017
BOS112
MIA108
30 Dec 2016
BOS117
MIA114
13 Apr 2016
BOS98
MIA88
27 Feb 2016
BOS101
MIA89
25 Mar 2015
BOS86
MIA93
01 Feb 2015
BOS75
MIA83
19 Mar 2014
BOS101
MIA96
18 Mar 2013
BOS103
MIA105
27 Jan 2013
BOS100
MIA98
07 Jun 2012
BOS79
MIA98
03 Jun 2012
BOS93
MIA91
01 Jun 2012
BOS101
MIA91
24 Apr 2012
BOS78
MIA66
01 Apr 2012
BOS91
MIA72
09 May 2011
BOS90
MIA98
07 May 2011
BOS97
MIA81
13 Feb 2011
BOS85
MIA82
26 Oct 2010
BOS88
MIA80
27 Apr 2010
BOS96
MIA86
20 Apr 2010
BOS106
MIA77
17 Apr 2010
BOS85
MIA76
03 Feb 2010
BOS107
MIA102
10 Apr 2009
BOS105
MIA98
18 Mar 2009
BOS112
MIA108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
W
138-129
138
129
+9
134avg 106
H23/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
117-114
117
114
+3
109avg 106
H26/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
115-119
115
119
-4
102avg 106
A29/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
117-115
117
115
+2
110avg 106
A30/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
123-117
123
117
+6
112avg 106
H03/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
146-101
146
101
+45
145avg 106
A05/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
126-105
126
105
+21
126avg 106
H06/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
121-113
121
113
+8
111avg 106
A07/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
101-116
101
116
-15
83avg 106
A12/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
105-112
105
112
-7
89avg 106
H16/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-27
48-30
30-32
28-40
24-30
33-28
29-25
31-31
36-32
33-27
23-35
23-25
28-26
30-25
32-28
27-36
21-32
37-20
36-24
29-41
32-26
34-33
43-27
37-15
39-17
30-29
28-36
29-23
34-26
43-33
20-32
24-22
35-29
32-31
13-27
21-29
33-25
24-28
24-32
24-27
235.0Avg total
120.9Scored
114.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)116.2110.8227.0+5.358%
Season at home (13)119.0112.7231.7+6.362%
Season away (13)113.3109.0222.3+4.354%
Last 10 (10)120.9114.1235.0+6.870%
Last 5 (5)119.8109.4229.2+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)109.0115.8224.8-6.833%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)116.8109.2226.0+7.562%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
127-117
127
117
+10
125avg 105
A23/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
106-102
106
102
+4
96avg 105
H25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
106-103
106
103
+3
107avg 105
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
135-138
135
138
-3
126avg 105
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
140-123
140
123
+17
139avg 105
H02/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
108-118
108
118
-10
94avg 105
A04/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
105-106
105
106
-1
100avg 105
A06/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
111-127
111
127
-16
100avg 105
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
96-106
96
106
-10
86avg 105
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
106-95
106
95
+11
100avg 105
A19/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
37-27
34-40
28-26
28-24
20-19
32-25
28-28
26-30
29-27
24-20
28-30
25-26
23-36
36-35
32-37
44-30
35-24
41-32
38-26
26-41
33-28
21-36
26-29
28-25
28-30
32-27
19-30
26-19
31-34
24-38
23-29
33-26
22-23
30-23
25-28
19-32
30-27
24-22
23-24
29-22
227.5Avg total
114.0Scored
113.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)120.7116.9237.5+3.858%
Season at home (14)121.1117.1238.2+4.171%
Season away (12)120.1116.7236.8+3.442%
Last 10 (10)114.0113.5227.5+0.550%
Last 5 (5)105.2110.4215.6-5.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)113.5123.8237.3-10.333%
vs Similar (15)119.7118.1237.8+1.753%
vs Weaker (9)111.2101.6212.8+9.778%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +6.0+6.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +0.9+0.9
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +6.0+6.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -1.7-1.7Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: +0.9+0.9
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
W
80-57
80
57
+23
H23/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
57-58
57
58
-1
H26/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
69-59
69
59
+10
A29/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A30/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H03/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
66-59
66
59
+7
A05/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
69-46
69
46
+23
H06/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
77-59
77
59
+18
A07/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
67-60
67
60
+7
A12/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
57-53
57
53
+4
H16/12
NBA
121.2Avg total
65.8Scored
55.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.155.7115.8+4.463%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.954.4115.3+6.664%-
Last 30 away (16)59.456.8116.2+2.662%-
Last 10 (10)65.855.4121.2+10.490%-
Last 5 (5)67.255.4122.6+11.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)53.758.8112.5-5.233%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)61.754.9116.6+6.871%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A23/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
59-71
59
71
-12
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H02/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
54-64
54
64
-10
A04/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
60-57
60
57
+3
A06/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
55-72
55
72
-17
H07/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H16/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A19/12
NBA
115.9Avg total
58.6Scored
57.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.558.2117.7+1.363%-
Last 30 at home (17)56.655.9112.5+0.676%-
Last 30 away (13)63.361.1124.4+2.246%-
Last 10 (10)58.657.3115.9+1.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.057.6112.6-2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)55.064.2119.2-9.233%-
vs Similar (15)63.461.3124.7+2.167%-
vs Weaker (9)56.048.9104.9+7.178%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 120.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers49.8 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.527.5
60.4%
54.8%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.916.6
38.7%
35.8%49.8
🏀 Free throws20.316.1
79.3%
78.1%16.1
They take 88.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 114.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.8 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.731.4
53.5%
54.8%62.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.610.9
34.5%
35.8%32.7
🏀 Free throws24.418.5
75.8%
78.1%18.5
They take 90.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boston Celtics
LLWWWWWLWW
Miami Heat
WLLLLWLWWW
#5
League position
#17
+7.0
Net rating
+0.5
124.3
Offensive rating
109.5
117.3
Defensive rating
109.1
59.3%
Effective FG%
52.9%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
11.6%
Turnover %
13.3%
28.9%
Off. rebound %
24.5%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.27
38.7%
3-point %
34.5%
54.0%
Assist %
62.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence124.3 · 109.5Defence117.3 · 109.1Shooting59.3% · 52.9%3-point %38.7% · 34.5%Ball care11.6% · 13.3%Off. rebounds28.9% · 24.5%Free throws0.23 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Boston Celtics   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Boston Celtics wins
2
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/25HDetroit Pistons105-112
12/12/25AMilwaukee Bucks101-116
07/12/25AToronto Raptors121-113
06/12/25HLos Angeles Lakers126-105
05/12/25AWashington Wizards146-101
03/12/25HNew York Knicks123-117
30/11/25ACleveland Cavaliers117-115
29/11/25AMinnesota Timberwolves115-119
26/11/25HDetroit Pistons117-114
23/11/25HOrlando Magic138-129
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/12/25ABrooklyn Nets106-95
16/12/25HToronto Raptors96-106
07/12/25HSacramento Kings111-127
06/12/25AOrlando Magic105-106
04/12/25ADallas Mavericks108-118
02/12/25HLos Angeles Clippers140-123
30/11/25HDetroit Pistons135-138
27/11/25HMilwaukee Bucks106-103
25/11/25HDallas Mavericks106-102
23/11/25APhiladelphia 76ers127-117

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boston Celtics
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL58%
HomeWWWWL62%
AwayLWWWL54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %58%62%54%
Points / game116.2119.0113.3
Allowed / game110.8112.7109.0
Point differential+5.3+6.3+4.3
Avg total227.0231.7222.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%31%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)50% (4)60% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW58%
HomeWLWLL71%
AwayWWLLW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %58%71%42%
Points / game120.7121.1120.1
Allowed / game116.9117.1116.7
Point differential+3.8+4.1+3.4
Avg total237.5238.2236.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%29%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %4%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2524196%123.0106.6+16.4
2 Detroit Pistons2721678%119.1113.1+6.0
3 Denver Nuggets2620677%125.6116.2+9.4
4 Los Angeles Lakers2519676%119.2116.8+2.4
5 New York Knicks2417771%120.4112.4+8.0
6 San Antonio Spurs2417771%119.5114.4+5.2
7 Houston Rockets2416867%121.1112.1+9.0
8 Minnesota Timberwolves27171063%119.4114.6+4.9
9 Toronto Raptors27171063%115.8112.8+3.0
10 Boston Celtics26151158%116.2110.8+5.3
11 Miami Heat26151158%120.7116.9+3.8
12 Phoenix Suns26151158%115.2113.0+2.2
13 Orlando Magic25141156%117.7114.1+3.6
14 Philadelphia 76ers25141156%116.8115.8+1.0
15 Cleveland Cavaliers28151354%118.4116.3+2.1
16 Atlanta Hawks28151354%118.3118.0+0.3
17 Memphis Grizzlies27131448%114.4115.2-0.8
18 Golden State Warriors28131546%113.8112.7+1.1
19 Chicago Bulls26111542%117.6121.9-4.3
20 Portland Trail Blazers27111641%118.8122.3-3.5
21 Dallas Mavericks28111739%113.0116.7-3.7
22 Milwaukee Bucks28111739%113.6117.4-3.9
23 Utah Jazz26101638%119.6126.8-7.2
24 Charlotte Hornets2791833%115.5118.7-3.2
25 Brooklyn Nets2671927%109.6115.5-5.9
26 Los Angeles Clippers2762122%110.9117.0-6.1
27 Indiana Pacers2762122%110.3118.1-7.9
28 Sacramento Kings2762122%111.7122.8-11.1
29 New Orleans Pelicans2862221%114.9123.0-8.1
30 Washington Wizards2542116%112.0126.4-14.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Boston Celtics30283437129
Miami Heat29293127116
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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