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Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 106-105
30-28 27-32 30-19 19-26
Position#13
Record13-9
FormLWWWL
Points / game119.2
Allowed / game114.3
vs
Position#17
Record14-8
FormWWLWL
Points / game123.6
Allowed / game118.4
USANBA· Kia Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Orlando Magic v Miami Heat
05 Apr 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
12 Feb 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
05 Dec 2025
ORL106
MIA105
22 Oct 2025
ORL125
MIA121
26 Dec 2024
ORL88
MIA89
21 Dec 2024
ORL121
MIA114
21 Jan 2024
ORL105
MIA87
20 Dec 2023
ORL106
MIA115
11 Mar 2023
ORL126
MIA114
11 Feb 2023
ORL103
MIA107
10 Apr 2022
ORL125
MIA111
17 Dec 2021
ORL105
MIA115
14 Mar 2021
ORL97
MIA102
23 Dec 2020
ORL113
MIA107
01 Feb 2020
ORL89
MIA102
03 Jan 2020
ORL105
MIA85
23 Dec 2018
ORL91
MIA115
17 Oct 2018
ORL104
MIA101
30 Dec 2017
ORL111
MIA117
18 Oct 2017
ORL116
MIA109
03 Mar 2017
ORL110
MIA99
26 Oct 2016
ORL96
MIA108
08 Apr 2016
ORL112
MIA109
26 Dec 2015
ORL101
MIA108
25 Feb 2015
ORL90
MIA93
22 Nov 2014
ORL92
MIA99
04 Jan 2014
ORL94
MIA110
20 Nov 2013
ORL92
MIA120
25 Mar 2013
ORL94
MIA108
31 Dec 2012
ORL110
MIA112
13 Mar 2012
ORL104
MIA98
08 Feb 2012
ORL102
MIA89
21 Dec 2011
ORL104
MIA100
03 Feb 2011
ORL100
MIA104
24 Nov 2010
ORL104
MIA95
28 Feb 2010
ORL96
MIA80
25 Nov 2009
ORL98
MIA99
22 Feb 2009
ORL122
MIA99
02 Jan 2009
ORL86
MIA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orlando Magic winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
105-98
105
98
+7
101avg 98
H15/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
113-117 OT
113
117
-4
95avg 98
A17/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
121-113
121
113
+8
119avg 98
H19/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
129-101
129
101
+28
128avg 98
H21/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
133-121
133
121
+12
128avg 98
H22/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
129-138
129
138
-9
121avg 98
A23/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
144-103
144
103
+41
143avg 98
A26/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
112-109
112
109
+3
90avg 98
A29/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
125-120
125
120
+5
119avg 98
H02/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
112-114
112
114
-2
101avg 98
H04/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-36
27-22
25-24
26-16
30-23
25-23
25-31
22-25
36-32
31-28
26-25
28-28
30-24
31-25
32-27
36-25
31-29
33-37
34-27
35-28
27-32
30-48
32-30
40-28
35-35
51-25
35-23
23-20
31-33
28-25
30-26
23-25
29-26
24-27
32-32
40-35
29-31
20-27
30-28
33-28
235.7Avg total
122.3Scored
113.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)119.2114.3233.5+4.959%
Season at home (12)116.7111.8228.5+4.867%
Season away (10)122.2117.3239.5+4.950%
Last 10 (10)122.3113.4235.7+8.970%
Last 5 (5)124.4116.8241.2+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)109.8113.9223.6-4.136%
vs Similar ◀ (12)121.2113.2234.3+8.067%
vs Weaker (4)113.2105.5218.8+7.875%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
132-140
132
140
-8
124avg 105
A15/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
115-113
115
113
+2
102avg 105
H18/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
110-96
110
96
+14
103avg 105
H20/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
143-107
143
107
+36
139avg 105
A22/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
127-117
127
117
+10
125avg 105
A23/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
106-102
106
102
+4
96avg 105
H25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
106-103
106
103
+3
107avg 105
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
135-138
135
138
-3
126avg 105
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
140-123
140
123
+17
139avg 105
H02/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
108-118
108
118
-10
94avg 105
A04/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-32
33-46
36-32
28-30
25-20
30-31
28-31
32-31
29-20
20-25
23-29
38-22
36-32
34-20
32-23
41-32
37-27
34-40
28-26
28-24
20-19
32-25
28-28
26-30
29-27
24-20
28-30
25-26
23-36
36-35
32-37
44-30
35-24
41-32
38-26
26-41
33-28
21-36
26-29
28-25
237.9Avg total
122.2Scored
115.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)123.6118.4242.0+5.264%
Season at home (12)124.1117.2241.2+6.983%
Season away (10)123.0119.9242.9+3.140%
Last 10 (10)122.2115.7237.9+6.570%
Last 5 (5)119.0116.8235.8+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)108.9123.2232.1-14.322%
vs Similar ◀ (14)122.7119.5242.2+3.264%
vs Weaker (7)112.098.9210.9+13.186%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: +2.5+2.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: +4.8+4.8Q4: +2.5+2.5
Orlando MagicMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
54-58
54
58
-4
H15/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
55-46
55
46
+9
A17/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
67-60
67
60
+7
H19/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
61-49
61
49
+12
H21/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
64-66
64
66
-2
H22/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
57-80
57
80
-23
A23/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
86-60
86
60
+26
A26/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
59-58
59
58
+1
A29/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H02/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
49-58
49
58
-9
H04/12
NBA
119.3Avg total
60.5Scored
58.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.556.2114.7+2.453%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.155.5112.6+1.747%-
Last 30 away (15)59.956.9116.8+3.160%-
Last 10 (10)60.558.8119.3+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)60.861.8122.6-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)54.655.5110.1-0.943%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)63.357.4120.8+5.975%-
vs Weaker (4)57.854.8112.5+3.025%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
68-78
68
78
-10
A15/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H18/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H20/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
70-52
70
52
+18
A22/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A23/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H27/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
59-71
59
71
-12
H30/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H02/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
54-64
54
64
-10
A04/12
NBA
118.2Avg total
60.7Scored
57.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.158.9118.0+0.257%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.155.9112.0+0.175%-
Last 30 away (14)62.662.2124.8+0.436%-
Last 10 (10)60.757.5118.2+3.270%-
Last 5 (5)58.856.4115.2+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)53.064.1117.1-11.122%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)64.462.1126.5+2.264%-
vs Weaker (7)56.445.6102.0+10.986%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 122.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.132.2
55.4%
54.8%64.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.711.8
35.0%
35.8%35.4
🏀 Free throws27.422.5
82.1%
78.1%22.5
They take 91.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 122.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.930.6
51.1%
54.8%61.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.913.5
37.6%
35.8%40.5
🏀 Free throws26.020.5
78.8%
78.1%20.5
They take 95.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Orlando Magic
LWWWLWWWLW
Miami Heat
LWLWWWWWWL
#13
League position
#17
+8.6
Net rating
+6.1
117.7
Offensive rating
114.4
109.2
Defensive rating
108.3
54.4%
Effective FG%
53.1%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
11.7%
Turnover %
11.7%
26.6%
Off. rebound %
26.9%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.0%
3-point %
37.6%
60.7%
Assist %
67.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence117.7 · 114.4Defence109.2 · 108.3Shooting54.4% · 53.1%3-point %35.0% · 37.6%Ball care11.7% · 11.7%Off. rebounds26.6% · 26.9%Free throws0.30 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Orlando Magic   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Orlando Magic wins
6
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/25HSan Antonio Spurs112-114
02/12/25HChicago Bulls125-120
29/11/25ADetroit Pistons112-109
26/11/25APhiladelphia 76ers144-103
23/11/25ABoston Celtics129-138
22/11/25HNew York Knicks133-121
21/11/25HLos Angeles Clippers129-101
19/11/25HGolden State Warriors121-113
17/11/25AHouston Rockets113-117 OT
15/11/25HBrooklyn Nets105-98
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/25ADallas Mavericks108-118
02/12/25HLos Angeles Clippers140-123
30/11/25HDetroit Pistons135-138
27/11/25HMilwaukee Bucks106-103
25/11/25HDallas Mavericks106-102
23/11/25APhiladelphia 76ers127-117
22/11/25AChicago Bulls143-107
20/11/25HGolden State Warriors110-96
18/11/25HNew York Knicks115-113
15/11/25ANew York Knicks132-140

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Orlando Magic
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL59%
HomeWWWWL67%
AwayWLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221210
Win %59%67%50%
Points / game119.2116.7122.2
Allowed / game114.3111.8117.3
Point differential+4.9+4.8+4.9
Avg total233.5228.5239.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%25%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)50% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %5%0%10%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL64%
HomeWWWLW83%
AwayLLWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221210
Win %64%83%40%
Points / game123.6124.1123.0
Allowed / game118.4117.2119.9
Point differential+5.2+6.9+3.1
Avg total242.0241.2242.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%33%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)83% (6)50% (2)
Overtime %5%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2221195%122.3107.0+15.3
2 Detroit Pistons2217577%118.3113.2+5.1
3 Los Angeles Lakers2116576%119.2116.0+3.2
4 Houston Rockets1914574%121.7110.3+11.4
5 Denver Nuggets2115671%125.1116.0+9.0
6 San Antonio Spurs2115671%119.0113.8+5.2
7 New York Knicks2114767%120.2113.0+7.2
8 Toronto Raptors2315865%117.8113.6+4.3
9 Minnesota Timberwolves2214864%120.8115.5+5.3
10 Miami Heat2214864%123.6118.4+5.2
11 Boston Celtics2213959%116.7110.7+6.0
12 Orlando Magic2213959%119.2114.3+4.9
13 Phoenix Suns2213959%117.0113.7+3.4
14 Philadelphia 76ers2112957%117.4117.0+0.3
15 Cleveland Cavaliers23131057%119.1116.0+3.1
16 Atlanta Hawks23131057%116.8115.7+1.1
17 Golden State Warriors23111248%113.7113.4+0.3
18 Milwaukee Bucks23101343%115.8117.8-2.0
19 Chicago Bulls2191243%119.1122.7-3.5
20 Portland Trail Blazers2291341%118.4120.6-2.2
21 Memphis Grizzlies2291341%113.6117.0-3.3
22 Utah Jazz2181338%118.7124.6-6.0
23 Dallas Mavericks2381535%111.4115.7-4.3
24 Los Angeles Clippers2261627%112.5117.5-5.1
25 Charlotte Hornets2261627%114.7119.9-5.2
26 Brooklyn Nets2251723%109.0118.0-9.0
27 Sacramento Kings2251723%111.0122.8-11.8
28 Indiana Pacers2241818%110.6120.1-9.5
29 Washington Wizards2131814%112.2128.1-15.9
30 New Orleans Pelicans2332013%112.7123.4-10.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Orlando Magic30273019106
Miami Heat28321926105
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