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Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 23 Mar 2017
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 84-101
33-23 14-22 21-30 16-26
Position#13
Record35-36
FormLWWLW
Points / game103.0
Allowed / game102.0
vs
Position#7
Record42-29
FormWLWWW
Points / game107.1
Allowed / game103.3
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Miami Heat v Toronto Raptors
03 Mar 2027
MIA v TOR
upcoming
02 Mar 2027
MIA v TOR
upcoming
23 Dec 2025
MIA91
TOR112
15 Dec 2025
MIA96
TOR106
12 Dec 2024
MIA114
TOR104
29 Nov 2024
MIA121
TOR111
14 Apr 2024
MIA118
TOR103
12 Apr 2024
MIA125
TOR103
24 Oct 2022
MIA90
TOR98
22 Oct 2022
MIA112
TOR109
29 Jan 2022
MIA120
TOR124
17 Jan 2022
MIA104
TOR99
24 Feb 2021
MIA116
TOR108
03 Aug 2020
MIA103
TOR107
02 Jan 2020
MIA84
TOR76
10 Mar 2019
MIA104
TOR125
26 Dec 2018
MIA104
TOR106
11 Apr 2018
MIA116
TOR109
23 Mar 2017
MIA84
TOR101
11 Mar 2017
MIA104
TOR89
13 May 2016
MIA103
TOR91
09 May 2016
MIA94
TOR87
07 May 2016
MIA91
TOR95
18 Dec 2015
MIA94
TOR108
08 Nov 2015
MIA96
TOR76
11 Apr 2015
MIA104
TOR107
02 Nov 2014
MIA107
TOR102
31 Mar 2014
MIA93
TOR83
05 Jan 2014
MIA102
TOR97
23 Jan 2013
MIA123
TOR116
18 Apr 2012
MIA96
TOR72
05 Feb 2012
MIA95
TOR89
22 Jan 2011
MIA120
TOR103
13 Nov 2010
MIA109
TOR100
28 Mar 2010
MIA97
TOR94
15 Dec 2009
MIA115
TOR95
19 Nov 2008
MIA95
TOR101
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#26
L
99-110
99
110
-11
85avg 92
A04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#4
W
120-92
120
92
+28
114avg 92
H05/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#4
W
106-98
106
98
+8
92avg 92
A07/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
108-101
108
101
+7
99avg 92
H09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
W
104-89
104
89
+15
96avg 92
H12/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
L
98-102
98
102
-4
85avg 92
A12/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
W
120-112
120
112
+8
114avg 92
H15/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
W
123-105
123
105
+18
122avg 92
H18/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
104-115
104
115
-11
88avg 92
H19/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
112-97
112
97
+15
96avg 92
H21/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-33
28-27
20-25
26-25
35-35
32-16
34-24
19-17
29-22
33-30
27-19
17-27
18-22
36-32
27-32
27-15
32-26
27-15
26-22
19-26
22-32
31-28
22-23
23-19
28-21
26-31
31-27
35-33
27-23
37-26
26-32
33-24
29-28
22-24
28-33
25-30
23-26
36-20
25-17
28-34
211.5Avg total
109.4Scored
102.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (71)103.0102.0205.0+1.049%
Season at home (36)106.7101.8208.5+4.958%
Season away (35)99.2102.2201.4-2.940%
Last 10 (10)109.4102.1211.5+7.370%
Last 5 (5)111.4106.2217.6+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)110.3104.7215.0+5.7100%
vs Similar ◀ (18)108.698.4207.0+10.183%
vs Weaker (9)110.9104.6215.4+6.367%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#9
W
114-106
114
106
+8
108avg 92
A04/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
94-101
94
101
-7
86avg 92
A05/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
W
94-87
94
87
+7
87avg 92
A09/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
99-105
99
105
-6
83avg 92
A11/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
L
89-104
89
104
-15
68avg 92
A12/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
100-78
100
78
+22
101avg 92
H13/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
102-123
102
123
-21
84avg 92
H16/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
87-75
87
75
+12
83avg 92
A17/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
116-91
116
91
+25
112avg 92
H19/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
122-120 OT
122
120
+2
109avg 92
H21/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-27
27-26
17-25
35-28
19-12
23-41
25-27
27-21
22-26
23-20
23-18
26-23
19-18
29-31
27-25
24-31
26-32
15-27
22-26
26-19
25-26
25-20
29-20
21-12
24-29
24-29
22-39
32-26
16-13
24-25
20-28
27-9
32-24
30-21
29-28
25-18
27-31
27-28
25-35
34-19
200.7Avg total
101.7Scored
99.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (71)107.1103.3210.5+3.859%
Season at home (36)110.8103.1213.9+7.867%
Season away (35)103.3103.6206.9-0.351%
Last 10 (10)101.799.0200.7+2.760%
Last 5 (5)105.497.4202.8+8.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)101.9103.9205.9-2.044%
vs Weaker (14)100.398.7199.0+1.650%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +5.9+5.9Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +7.1+7.1
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +5.9+5.9Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +7.1+7.1
Miami HeatToronto Raptors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#26
L
53-60
53
60
-7
A04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#4
W
67-51
67
51
+16
H05/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#4
W
62-52
62
52
+10
A07/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
D
54-54
54
54
+0
H09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
W
59-41
59
41
+18
H12/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
L
53-60
53
60
-7
A12/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
W
54-52
54
52
+2
H15/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
W
64-49
64
49
+15
H18/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H19/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H21/03
NBA
109.3Avg total
57.6Scored
51.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.652.0108.6+4.653%-
Last 30 at home (18)56.950.6107.5+6.361%-
Last 30 away (12)56.254.0110.2+2.242%-
Last 10 (10)57.651.7109.3+5.960%-
Last 5 (5)56.251.8108.0+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)52.348.7101.0+3.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)57.651.4109.0+6.161%-
vs Weaker (9)56.154.1110.2+2.044%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#9
W
62-53
62
53
+9
A04/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
42-53
42
53
-11
A05/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#21
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A09/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
48-49
48
49
-1
A11/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
L
41-59
41
59
-18
A12/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H13/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
48-58
48
58
-10
H16/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A17/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
62-45
62
45
+17
H19/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
L
54-59
54
59
-5
H21/03
NBA
99.8Avg total
49.2Scored
50.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.952.2103.1-1.350%-
Last 30 at home (15)52.553.3105.8-0.953%-
Last 30 away (15)49.351.0100.3-1.747%-
Last 10 (10)49.250.699.8-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.849.2100.0+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)51.754.1105.8-2.444%-
vs Weaker (14)50.050.0100.0+0.057%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 109.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.128.5
50.8%
50.2%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.612.3
38.9%
35.7%36.9
🏀 Free throws20.515.5
75.6%
77.0%15.5
They take 87.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 101.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.630.3
50.0%
50.2%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.97.5
32.8%
35.7%22.5
🏀 Free throws23.318.6
79.8%
77.0%18.6
They take 83.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 27% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Mar 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWWLWWWWL
Toronto Raptors
WWWLWLLWLW
#13
League position
#7
+7.6
Net rating
+2.8
113.8
Offensive rating
105.0
106.2
Defensive rating
102.3
53.5%
Effective FG%
49.8%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.8%
11.6%
Turnover %
13.7%
28.1%
Off. rebound %
25.1%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.28
38.9%
3-point %
32.8%
51.7%
Assist %
47.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence113.8 · 105.0Defence106.2 · 102.3Shooting53.5% · 49.8%3-point %38.9% · 32.8%Ball care11.6% · 13.7%Off. rebounds28.1% · 25.1%Free throws0.23 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Toronto Raptors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Toronto Raptors wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/17HPhoenix Suns112-97
19/03/17HPortland Trail Blazers104-115
18/03/17HMinnesota Timberwolves123-105
15/03/17HNew Orleans Pelicans120-112
12/03/17AIndiana Pacers98-102
12/03/17HToronto Raptors104-89
09/03/17HCharlotte Hornets108-101
07/03/17ACleveland Cavaliers106-98
05/03/17HCleveland Cavaliers120-92
04/03/17AOrlando Magic99-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/17HChicago Bulls122-120 OT
19/03/17HIndiana Pacers116-91
17/03/17ADetroit Pistons87-75
16/03/17HOklahoma City Thunder102-123
13/03/17HDallas Mavericks100-78
12/03/17AMiami Heat89-104
11/03/17AAtlanta Hawks99-105
09/03/17ANew Orleans Pelicans94-87
05/03/17AMilwaukee Bucks94-101
04/03/17AWashington Wizards114-106

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW49%
HomeWWWLW58%
AwayWLLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games713635
Win %49%58%40%
Points / game103.0106.799.2
Allowed / game102.0101.8102.2
Point differential+1.0+4.9-2.9
Avg total205.0208.5201.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%36%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (16)33% (6)50% (10)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Toronto Raptors
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW59%
HomeLWLWW67%
AwayLWLLW51%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games713635
Win %59%67%51%
Points / game107.1110.8103.3
Allowed / game103.3103.1103.6
Point differential+3.8+7.8-0.3
Avg total210.5213.9206.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%42%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (22)36% (11)36% (11)
Overtime %6%6%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors71571480%116.1104.5+11.6
2 San Antonio Spurs70541677%106.498.6+7.9
3 Houston Rockets71492269%115.5108.6+6.8
4 Cleveland Cavaliers70462466%110.5106.6+3.8
5 Boston Celtics72462664%107.4104.9+2.6
6 Utah Jazz72442861%100.496.5+3.8
7 Washington Wizards71432861%108.7106.7+2.0
8 Los Angeles Clippers72432960%108.2104.8+3.4
9 Toronto Raptors71422959%107.1103.3+3.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder71413058%106.9105.9+1.0
11 Memphis Grizzlies71403156%101.1100.3+0.8
12 Atlanta Hawks71373452%103.4104.5-1.2
13 Milwaukee Bucks71363551%104.6104.2+0.4
14 Indiana Pacers71363551%104.1105.0-1.0
15 Miami Heat71353649%103.0102.0+1.0
16 Denver Nuggets71343748%111.5111.0+0.5
17 Detroit Pistons72343847%101.5102.2-0.8
18 Chicago Bulls72343847%102.3103.3-1.0
19 Portland Trail Blazers70323846%108.0109.7-1.7
20 Charlotte Hornets71323945%104.8104.0+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks70304043%98.0100.4-2.4
22 New Orleans Pelicans71304142%103.5105.7-2.2
23 Minnesota Timberwolves70284240%104.8105.4-0.6
24 New York Knicks71274438%105.2108.7-3.4
25 Sacramento Kings71274438%102.9106.5-3.6
26 Philadelphia 76ers71264537%102.4107.8-5.4
27 Orlando Magic72264636%100.2106.5-6.4
28 Phoenix Suns71224931%107.1112.5-5.4
29 Los Angeles Lakers71205128%104.6112.2-7.5
30 Brooklyn Nets70145620%105.7113.6-7.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat3314211684
Toronto Raptors23223026101
← all games of the day
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