PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Real Madrid vs Murcia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 03 May 2026
Tip-off: 10:00
Final 131-123 (OT)
25-29 25-34 31-29 33-22 17-9
Position#2
Record25-3
FormWLWWW
Points / game92.8
Allowed / game83.0
Real Madrid 🏆
Spain
vs
Murcia
Spain
Position#4
Record21-7
FormWWWWW
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game83.2
SpainACBRound 29· Movistar Arena
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Real Madrid v Murcia
08 Nov 2026
MAD v MUR
upcoming
03 May 2026
MAD131
MUR123
09 Mar 2025
MAD80
MUR75
10 Jun 2024
MAD79
MUR63
08 Jun 2024
MAD84
MUR76
15 Feb 2024
MAD84
MUR79
15 Oct 2023
MAD106
MUR92
20 Nov 2022
MAD93
MUR57
11 May 2022
MAD90
MUR69
02 Feb 2021
MAD98
MUR87
23 Dec 2018
MAD80
MUR74
10 Dec 2017
MAD87
MUR85
16 Oct 2016
MAD93
MUR86
31 May 2016
MAD93
MUR72
27 May 2016
MAD107
MUR103
06 Dec 2015
MAD101
MUR80
16 Nov 2014
MAD90
MUR65
15 Mar 2014
MAD102
MUR65
03 Mar 2013
MAD86
MUR69
29 Apr 2012
MAD80
MUR79
25 Oct 2009
MAD73
MUR66
14 Dec 2008
MAD70
MUR61
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Murcia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#18
L
96-98
96
98
-2
95avg 85
A03/04
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
W
97-90
97
90
+7
94avg 85
H05/04
ACB
Olympiacos
#1
L
88-102
88
102
-14
81avg 85
A07/04
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#4
W
74-69
74
69
+5
73avg 85
A09/04
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
94-78
94
78
+16
98avg 85
A12/04
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#9
W
103-82
103
82
+21
106avg 85
H16/04
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
L
90-95
90
95
-5
82avg 85
H19/04
ACB
Valencia
#1
W
96-82
96
82
+14
94avg 85
A25/04
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
86-82
86
82
+4
81avg 85
H29/04
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
102-75
102
75
+27
99avg 85
H01/05
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-29
26-19
23-25
20-25
18-30
29-17
28-13
22-30
19-31
23-18
15-23
31-30
19-21
21-13
14-24
20-11
25-20
18-19
23-18
28-21
27-25
29-19
21-19
26-19
21-26
20-19
19-23
30-27
22-19
23-22
30-22
21-19
27-18
21-15
22-22
16-27
24-21
16-21
33-20
29-13
177.9Avg total
92.6Scored
85.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)92.883.0175.8+9.989%
Season at home (13)93.281.4174.6+11.885%
Season away (15)92.584.3176.8+8.193%
Last 10 (10)92.685.3177.9+7.370%
Last 5 (5)95.483.2178.6+12.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)96.082.0178.0+14.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (10)88.981.3170.2+7.670%
vs Weaker (19)93.283.9177.1+9.379%
This opponent (Murcia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MurciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMurcia
Date
Competition
Gran Canaria
#15
W
87-76
87
76
+11
82avg 80
H14/03
ACB
Reggiana
#12
W
77-63
77
63
+14
72avg 80
H18/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Manresa
#10
W
90-86
90
86
+4
81avg 80
A21/03
ACB
Bilbao
#7
W
100-81
100
81
+19
96avg 80
H28/03
ACB
PAOK
#5
L
73-79
73
79
-6
62avg 80
A01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
89-67
89
67
+22
83avg 80
A04/04
ACB
PAOK
#5
W
89-85
89
85
+4
72avg 80
H08/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Granada
#18
W
107-91
107
91
+16
105avg 80
H12/04
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
W
95-89
95
89
+6
89avg 80
A18/04
ACB
Tenerife
#8
W
86-80
86
80
+6
82avg 80
H25/04
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-15
22-15
28-18
22-28
15-19
13-8
18-17
31-19
18-15
18-22
32-31
22-18
22-25
27-22
21-16
30-18
17-19
26-15
12-21
18-24
18-15
27-15
23-19
21-18
20-19
27-21
16-20
26-25
28-23
32-24
15-23
32-21
28-22
10-21
28-23
29-23
24-29
17-16
22-16
23-19
169.0Avg total
89.3Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)90.083.2173.2+6.975%
Season at home (14)89.981.0170.9+8.986%
Season away (14)90.285.4175.6+4.964%
Last 10 (10)89.379.7169.0+9.690%
Last 5 (5)93.282.4175.6+10.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)88.095.0183.0-7.050%
vs Similar ◀ (4)83.279.5162.8+3.875%
vs Weaker (24)90.081.3171.3+8.783%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +4.1+4.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +1.1+1.1Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +4.1+4.1
Real MadridMurcia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#18
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A03/04
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H05/04
ACB
Olympiacos
#1
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A07/04
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#4
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A09/04
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A12/04
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#9
W
56-44
56
44
+12
H16/04
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H19/04
ACB
Valencia
#1
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A25/04
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H29/04
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H01/05
Euroleague
87.7Avg total
45.5Scored
42.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.939.785.6+6.277%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.337.784.9+9.680%-
Last 30 away (15)44.541.786.2+2.773%-
Last 10 (10)45.542.287.7+3.360%-
Last 5 (5)46.041.087.0+5.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)45.041.086.0+4.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)47.038.985.9+8.180%-
vs Weaker (19)45.340.185.4+5.374%-
This opponent (Murcia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MurciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gran Canaria
#15
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H14/03
ACB
Reggiana
#12
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H18/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Manresa
#10
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A21/03
ACB
Bilbao
#7
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H28/03
ACB
PAOK
#5
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
45-30
45
30
+15
A04/04
ACB
PAOK
#5
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H08/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Granada
#18
W
60-47
60
47
+13
H12/04
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#16
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A18/04
ACB
Tenerife
#8
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H25/04
ACB
80.4Avg total
42.4Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.739.883.5+3.967%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.839.180.9+2.767%-
Last 30 away (15)45.740.586.2+5.167%-
Last 10 (10)42.438.080.4+4.470%-
Last 5 (5)46.241.087.2+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)40.044.584.5-4.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)37.840.077.8-2.225%-
vs Weaker (24)45.039.484.4+5.775%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 71.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.9 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.4 points a game
42%
39%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers23.916.8
70.3%
50.0%33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.89.5
36.8%
42.2%28.5
🏀 Free throws11.18.9
80.2%
74.7%8.9
They take 49.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Murciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Murcia: 89.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.4 points a game
42%
39%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.820.7
54.8%
50.0%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.310.3
37.7%
42.2%30.9
🏀 Free throws22.617.0
75.2%
74.7%17.0
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WWWLWWWLWL
Murcia
WWWWWLWWWW
#2
League position
#4
+4.9
Net rating
+10.9
58.1
Offensive rating
101.2
53.2
Defensive rating
90.4
62.5%
Effective FG%
55.5%
58.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.9%
17.9%
Turnover %
14.1%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.35
36.8%
3-point %
37.7%
79.1%
Assist %
54.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence58.1 · 101.2Defence53.2 · 90.4Shooting62.5% · 55.5%3-point %36.8% · 37.7%Ball care17.9% · 14.1%Free throws0.22 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)70% · 90%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Murcia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Real Madrid wins
1
Murcia wins
DateGameScore
30/12/25Murcia v Real Madrid80-91
09/03/25Real Madrid v Murcia80-75
03/11/24Murcia v Real Madrid64-85
12/06/24Murcia v Real Madrid73-84
10/06/24Real Madrid v Murcia79-63
08/06/24Real Madrid v Murcia84-76
15/02/24Real Madrid v Murcia84-79
14/01/24Murcia v Real Madrid73-61
15/10/23Real Madrid v Murcia106-92
12/02/23Murcia v Real Madrid80-88
Real Madridlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/05/26HHapoel Tel-Aviv102-75
29/04/26HHapoel Tel-Aviv86-82
25/04/26AValencia96-82
19/04/26HTenerife90-95
16/04/26HCrvena zvezda103-82
12/04/26ASan Pablo Burgos94-78
09/04/26AFenerbahce74-69
07/04/26AOlympiacos88-102
05/04/26HMoraBanc Andorra97-90
03/04/26ABaskonia96-98
Murcialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/04/26HTenerife86-80
18/04/26AMoraBanc Andorra95-89
12/04/26HGranada107-91
08/04/26HPAOK89-85
04/04/26AJoventut Badalona89-67
01/04/26APAOK73-79
28/03/26HBilbao100-81
21/03/26AManresa90-86
18/03/26HReggiana77-63
14/03/26HGran Canaria87-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
ACB 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW89%
HomeWWWWL85%
AwayWWWWW93%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281315
Win %89%85%93%
Points / game92.893.292.5
Allowed / game83.081.484.3
Point differential+9.9+11.8+8.1
Avg total175.8174.6176.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+57%69%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)0% (2)86% (7)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Murcia
ACB 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW75%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayWLWWW64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %75%86%64%
Points / game90.089.990.2
Allowed / game83.281.085.4
Point differential+6.9+8.9+4.9
Avg total173.2170.9175.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%50%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %4%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid2825389%92.883.0+9.9
2 Valencia2821775%94.282.5+11.7
3 Murcia2821775%90.083.2+6.9
4 Barcelona2819968%88.781.4+7.4
5 Baskonia2819968%92.587.2+5.2
6 Joventut Badalona28171161%84.281.2+3.0
7 Tenerife29171259%88.784.6+4.1
8 Unicaja29161355%88.186.3+1.8
9 Bilbao28151354%84.786.4-1.7
10 Basquet Girona29131645%87.189.7-2.6
11 Breogan28121643%90.193.0-2.9
12 Manresa28111739%84.891.1-6.3
13 Forca Lleida29101934%83.589.6-6.1
14 San Pablo Burgos2992031%89.793.0-3.3
15 Gran Canaria2992031%81.485.9-4.5
16 Basket Zaragoza2992031%87.493.0-5.7
17 MoraBanc Andorra2982128%86.293.1-7.0
18 Granada2852318%82.091.1-9.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Real Madrid2525313317131
Murcia293429229123
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.