Sydney vs New Zealand Breakers Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 04:00

Projected 97-86

Projected total 183.2

Final 111-102 (OT)

21-20 24-25 20-19 22-23 24-15

Position#1

Record8-4

FormLWWWL

Points / game97.6

Allowed / game88.7

Sydney 🏆

83%

17%

■ SYDN 83%■ NEW 17%

Pythia win probability

New Zealand Breakers

Position#8

Record5-8

FormLLLLW

Points / game89.8

Allowed / game89.9

NBLRound 9· Qudos Bank Arena

Other2026-27

Meetings · Sydney v New Zealand Breakers

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Sydney face the New Zealand Breakers on 15 November 2026 in the NBL, and the Pythia model names Sydney the clear favourite, rating them 83% to win largely because of their 8-4 record, 97.6 points per game and 88.7 allowed, placing them first in the league; the Breakers sit 8th with a 5-8 record, 89.8 points per game and 89.9 allowed. Sydney have won 5 of 7 home games, scoring 102.3 and allowing 90.6, and have won 3 of their last five, with a recent 110-99 home win over South East Melbourne but a narrow 82-84 loss to Cairns Taipans away; the Breakers have won only 2 of 9 road games, 86.6 points per game and 90.6 allowed, and have won just one of their last five, including a 94-90 home win over Brisbane Bullets but losses to Tasmania JackJumpers and Melbourne United. Historically Sydney have won 6 of 10 meetings, though the Breakers edged the most recent 102-101 game on 14 October 2026. Pythia projects a 97-86 score, 183.2 total points, with a 54% chance Sydney will cover the -9.5 line and a 44% chance of the over on 185.5, and a 3% overtime probability. The Breakers' last road win came against Brisbane on 13 November 2026.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winWon

82.6%fair 1.21

Best odds1.23

Implied80.4%

Edge+2.2pp

New Zealand Breakers winLost

17.4%fair 5.76

Best odds5.50

Implied19.6%

Edge-2.2pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sydney

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormSydney

Date

Competition

Brisbane Bullets

93-78

+15

87avg 96

H30/09

NBL

Adelaide

78-84

-6

75avg 96

H11/10

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

101-102

101

102

-1

92avg 96

H14/10

NBL

Perth

102-81

102

+21

96avg 96

H17/10

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

108-82

108

+26

109avg 96

A22/10

NBL

Melbourne United

95-105

105

-10

96avg 96

A25/10

NBL

Perth

99-91

100avg 96

A28/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

71-68

57avg 96

A30/10

NBL

South East Melbourne

#10

110-99

110

+11

no box

H08/11

NBL

Cairns Taipans

82-84

-2

no box

A13/11

NBL

23-34

20-10

29-14

21-20

18-18

26-23

12-20

22-23

29-31

32-20

12-24

28-27

31-21

21-22

24-20

26-18

20-19

28-17

34-16

26-30

31-32

20-24

13-21

31-28

33-17

26-25

21-28

19-21

19-19

18-12

13-24

21-13

28-38

26-13

29-19

27-29

29-12

24-20

14-31

15-21

181.3Avg total

93.9Scored

87.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (12)	97.6	88.7	186.2	+8.9	67%
Season at home (7)	102.3	90.6	192.9	+11.7	71%
Season away (5)	91.0	86.0	177.0	+5.0	60%
Last 10 (10)	93.9	87.4	181.3	+6.5	60%
Last 5 (5)	91.4	89.4	180.8	+2.0	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (1)	95.0	105.0	200.0	-10.0	0%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)	102.3	88.0	190.4	+14.3	83%

This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

New Zealand Breakers Australia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormBreakers

Date

Competition

Cairns Taipans

98-75

+23

99avg 84

H30/09

NBL

Adelaide

88-72

+16

84avg 84

A04/10

NBL

Perth

84-100

100

-16

63avg 84

A10/10

NBL

Sydney

102-101

102

101

99avg 84

A14/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

92-98

-6

89avg 84

A18/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

84-86

-2

75avg 84

A25/10

NBL

Adelaide

101-108

101

108

-7

92avg 84

H30/10

NBL

Melbourne United

74-94

-20

no box

A02/11

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

77-79

-2

no box

A06/11

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

94-90 OT

no box

H13/11

NBL

19-18

23-17

30-25

26-15

23-19

25-23

12-15

28-15

22-21

16-20

28-29

18-30

31-29

20-32

24-12

27-28

32-31

19-22

14-17

27-28

25-16

21-23

16-21

22-26

24-28

20-28

28-18

29-34

19-28

20-15

16-27

19-24

19-27

24-16

12-21

22-15

14-24

26-16

20-22

19-17

179.7Avg total

89.4Scored

90.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (13)	89.8	89.9	179.7	-0.2	38%
Season at home (4)	97.0	88.5	185.5	+8.5	75%
Season away (9)	86.6	90.6	177.1	-4.0	22%
Last 10 (10)	89.4	90.3	179.7	-0.9	40%
Last 5 (5)	86.0	91.4	177.4	-5.4	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	87.4	99.8	187.2	-12.4	20%
vs Similar (15)	94.3	92.6	186.9	+1.7	47%
vs Weaker (5)	98.8	89.8	188.6	+9.0	60%

This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 181Actual: Over 181

Over 181

54.7%

@ 1.66-2.7pp

Under 181

45.3%

@ 2.24+2.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.66

Bet365

1.62

1xBet

1.61

Marathon Be

1.55

Under

Pinnacle

2.24

Bet365

2.20

Marathon Be

2.18

1xBet

2.18

Over/Under 186 · main lineActual: Over 186

Over 186

42.3%

@ 2.05-7.7pp

Under 186

57.7%

@ 1.91+7.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.05

Marathon Be

1.95

1xBet

1.95

Pinnacle

1.91

Under

Pinnacle

1.91

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.83

Bet365

1.75

Over/Under 191Actual: Over 191

Over 191

30.7%

@ 2.55-6.0pp

Under 191

69.3%

@ 1.48+6.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.55

Under

Bet365

1.48

Marathon Be

1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Sydney total 93.5Actual: Sydney over 93.5

Over 93.5

63.4%

@ 1.50+0.1pp

Under 93.5

36.6%

@ 2.65-0.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.50

Betano

1.40

Under

Betano

2.65

1xBet

2.36

Sydney total 97.5 · main lineActual: Sydney over 97.5

Over 97.5

47.7%

@ 1.87-3.2pp

Under 97.5

52.3%

@ 1.95+3.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.87

Marathon Be

1.86

1xBet

1.80

Betano

1.80

BetVictor

1.80

Under

BetVictor

1.95

1xBet

1.92

Marathon Be

1.88

Betano

1.87

Bet365

1.87

Sydney total 101.5Actual: Sydney over 101.5

Over 101.5

32.4%

@ 2.52-4.0pp

Under 101.5

67.6%

@ 1.44+4.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.52

Under

Betano

1.44

New Zealand Breakers total 83.5Actual: New Zealand Breakers over 83.5

Over 83.5

59.9%

@ 1.47-4.6pp

Under 83.5

40.1%

@ 2.70+4.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.47

Betano

1.42

Bet365

1.41

Under

Bet365

2.70

Betano

2.57

1xBet

2.44

New Zealand Breakers total 87.5 · main lineActual: New Zealand Breakers over 87.5

Over 87.5

44.3%

@ 1.90-5.7pp

Under 87.5

55.7%

@ 1.95+5.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.90

Marathon Be

1.87

Betano

1.85

1xBet

1.83

BetVictor

1.80

Under

BetVictor

1.95

1xBet

1.89

Marathon Be

1.87

Bet365

1.85

Betano

1.82

New Zealand Breakers total 91.5Actual: New Zealand Breakers over 91.5

Over 91.5

29.8%

@ 2.60-8.0pp

Under 91.5

70.2%

@ 1.54+8.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.60

1xBet

2.42

Bet365

2.35

Under

Bet365

1.54

1xBet

1.47

Betano

1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Sydney -12.5Actual: New Zealand Breakers +12.5

SYDN -12.5

43.4%

@ 2.36+3.2pp

NEW +12.5

56.6%

@ 1.65-3.2pp

Best 5 market prices

SYDN

Pinnacle

2.36

BetVictor

2.30

Betano

2.20

1xBet

2.18

Marathon Be

2.18

NEW

Bet365

1.65

BetVictor

1.62

1xBet

1.59

Marathon Be

1.59

Pinnacle

1.59

Spread Sydney -9.5 · main lineActual: New Zealand Breakers +9.5

SYDN -9.5

54.3%

@ 1.88+3.5pp

NEW +9.5

45.7%

@ 2.00-3.5pp

Best 5 market prices

SYDN

Pinnacle

1.88

1xBet

1.84

Marathon Be

1.84

BetVictor

1.83

Betfair

1.80

NEW

Bet365

2.00

1xBet

1.96

Marathon Be

1.96

Pinnacle

1.94

BetVictor

1.93

Spread Sydney -6.5Actual: Sydney -6.5

SYDN -6.5

65.0%

@ 1.51+2.5pp

NEW +6.5

35.0%

@ 2.55-2.5pp

Best 5 market prices

SYDN

1xBet

1.51

Marathon Be

1.51

BetVictor

1.50

Bet365

1.48

Betano

1.47

NEW

Bet365

2.55

BetVictor

2.50

Betano

2.45

1xBet

2.35

Marathon Be

2.35

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

SydneyNew Zealand Breakers

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 47
Last 30 (30)	26.6	24.5	51.1	+2.1	57%	67%
Last 30 at home (17)	26.9	25.6	52.5	+1.3	53%	76%
Last 30 away (13)	26.2	23.2	49.4	+3.1	62%	54%
Last 10 (10)	26.1	24.1	50.2	+2.0	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	28.0	23.6	51.6	+4.4	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (1)	31.0	32.0	63.0	-1.0	0%	100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)	26.4	24.3	50.7	+2.2	59%	66%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 47
Last 30 (30)	24.1	23.5	47.7	+0.6	60%	40%
Last 30 at home (11)	22.9	23.2	46.1	-0.3	45%	55%
Last 30 away (19)	24.8	23.7	48.6	+1.1	68%	32%
Last 10 (10)	22.8	24.1	46.9	-1.3	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.2	24.6	44.8	-4.4	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	23.7	26.8	50.5	-3.1	40%	50%
vs Similar (15)	24.4	21.6	46.0	+2.8	73%	33%
vs Weaker (5)	24.2	22.8	47.0	+1.4	60%	40%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46
Last 30 (30)	26.5	20.4	46.8	+6.1	77%	57%
Last 30 at home (17)	27.8	20.3	48.1	+7.5	88%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	24.7	20.5	45.2	+4.2	62%	54%
Last 10 (10)	24.1	18.6	42.7	+5.5	80%	30%
Last 5 (5)	22.8	18.8	41.6	+4.0	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (1)	20.0	24.0	44.0	-4.0	0%	0%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)	26.7	20.2	46.9	+6.4	79%	59%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46
Last 30 (30)	22.1	23.9	46.0	-1.7	37%	53%
Last 30 at home (11)	23.7	23.9	47.6	-0.2	55%	64%
Last 30 away (19)	21.2	23.8	45.1	-2.6	26%	47%
Last 10 (10)	21.4	21.2	42.6	+0.2	50%	30%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	19.6	41.8	+2.6	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	20.9	24.8	45.7	-3.9	40%	40%
vs Similar (15)	21.5	22.4	43.9	-0.9	33%	47%
vs Weaker (5)	26.6	26.4	53.0	+0.2	40%	100%

SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Brisbane Bullets

43-44

-1

H30/09

NBL

Adelaide

44-41

H11/10

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

61-51

+10

H14/10

NBL

Perth

52-43

H17/10

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

48-36

+12

A22/10

NBL

Melbourne United

51-56

-5

A25/10

NBL

Perth

59-42

+17

A28/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

37-31

A30/10

NBL

South East Melbourne

#10

54-51

H08/11

NBL

Cairns Taipans

53-32

+21

A13/11

NBL

92.9Avg total

50.2Scored

42.7Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 94.5
Last 30 (30)	53.1	44.9	98.0	+8.2	80%	67%
Last 30 at home (17)	54.7	45.9	100.6	+8.8	88%	71%
Last 30 away (13)	50.9	43.6	94.5	+7.3	69%	62%
Last 10 (10)	50.2	42.7	92.9	+7.5	80%	50%
Last 5 (5)	50.8	42.4	93.2	+8.4	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (1)	51.0	56.0	107.0	-5.0	0%	100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)	53.1	44.5	97.7	+8.6	83%	66%

This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Cairns Taipans

42-35

H30/09

NBL

Adelaide

48-42

A04/10

NBL

Perth

38-41

-3

A10/10

NBL

Sydney

51-61

-10

A14/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

51-53

-2

A18/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

46-39

A25/10

NBL

Adelaide

44-56

-12

H30/10

NBL

Melbourne United

39-43

-4

A02/11

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

43-43

A06/11

NBL

Brisbane Bullets

40-40

H13/11

NBL

89.5Avg total

44.2Scored

45.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 94.5
Last 30 (30)	46.3	47.4	93.7	-1.1	43%	47%
Last 30 at home (11)	46.6	47.1	93.7	-0.5	45%	55%
Last 30 away (19)	46.1	47.6	93.6	-1.5	42%	42%
Last 10 (10)	44.2	45.3	89.5	-1.1	30%	30%
Last 5 (5)	42.4	44.2	86.6	-1.8	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	44.6	51.6	96.2	-7.0	10%	50%
vs Similar (15)	45.9	44.0	89.9	+1.9	60%	33%
vs Weaker (5)	50.8	49.2	100.0	+1.6	60%	80%

This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: New Zealand Breakers win

SYDN win

no forecast

@ 1.33

NEW win

no forecast

@ 3.65

1st half Spread Sydney -5 · main lineActual: New Zealand Breakers +5

SYDN -5

no forecast

@ 1.87

NEW +5

no forecast

@ 1.97

1st half Over/Under 94.5 · main lineActual: Under 94.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.93

Under

no forecast

@ 1.88

Sydney 1st half total 49.5 · main lineActual: Sydney under 49.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.87

Under

no forecast

@ 1.98

New Zealand Breakers 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: New Zealand Breakers over 44.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.95

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half: SYDN + total 93.5

SYDN & over

no forecast

@ 2.65

SYDN & under

no forecast

@ 2.60

1st half: Draw + total 93.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 29.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 29.00

1st half: NEW + total 93.5

NEW & over

no forecast

@ 6.25

NEW & under

no forecast

@ 6.25

1st half Over/Under 93Actual: Under 93

Over

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under

no forecast

@ 2.14

1st half Spread Sydney -6Actual: New Zealand Breakers +6

SYDN -6

no forecast

@ 2.03

NEW +6

no forecast

@ 1.82

1st half Spread Sydney -4Actual: New Zealand Breakers +4

SYDN -4

no forecast

@ 1.78

NEW +4

no forecast

@ 2.14

1st half Over/Under 96.5Actual: Under 96.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.20

Under

no forecast

@ 1.62

1st half Over/Under 91.5Actual: Under 91.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.76

Under

no forecast

@ 2.22

1st half Spread Sydney -7Actual: New Zealand Breakers +7

SYDN -7

no forecast

@ 2.19

NEW +7

no forecast

@ 1.77

1st half Spread Sydney -2.5Actual: New Zealand Breakers +2.5

SYDN -2.5

no forecast

@ 1.57

NEW +2.5

no forecast

@ 2.25

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Draw after regulation

SYDN

no forecast

@ 1.37

Draw

no forecast

@ 18.00

NEW

no forecast

@ 3.70

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45
Last 30 (30)	23.7	21.4	45.1	+2.3	63%	50%
Last 30 at home (17)	24.4	21.8	46.2	+2.5	65%	53%
Last 30 away (13)	22.8	20.8	43.7	+2.0	62%	46%
Last 10 (10)	20.1	21.7	41.8	-1.6	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	18.0	24.6	42.6	-6.6	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (1)	13.0	21.0	34.0	-8.0	0%	0%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)	24.1	21.4	45.5	+2.7	66%	52%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45
Last 30 (30)	22.3	23.2	45.5	-1.0	37%	53%
Last 30 at home (11)	23.8	24.5	48.3	-0.6	45%	73%
Last 30 away (19)	21.4	22.5	43.9	-1.2	32%	42%
Last 10 (10)	20.0	20.7	40.7	-0.7	30%	30%
Last 5 (5)	18.4	21.8	40.2	-3.4	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	20.3	24.6	44.9	-4.3	20%	50%
vs Similar (15)	22.7	23.6	46.3	-0.9	33%	60%
vs Weaker (5)	25.0	19.4	44.4	+5.6	80%	40%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.5
Last 30 (30)	24.7	22.1	46.8	+2.6	60%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	24.5	23.5	48.1	+1.0	59%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	25.0	20.2	45.2	+4.8	62%	46%
Last 10 (10)	23.6	23.0	46.6	+0.6	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	22.6	22.4	45.0	+0.2	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (1)	31.0	28.0	59.0	+3.0	100%	100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)	24.5	21.9	46.4	+2.6	59%	52%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.5
Last 30 (30)	22.8	22.6	45.4	+0.2	43%	50%
Last 30 at home (11)	22.3	21.7	44.0	+0.5	45%	45%
Last 30 away (19)	23.1	23.1	46.2	+0.0	42%	53%
Last 10 (10)	23.7	23.2	46.9	+0.5	40%	50%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	23.2	45.4	-1.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	22.5	23.6	46.1	-1.1	30%	50%
vs Similar (15)	22.9	22.4	45.3	+0.5	47%	53%
vs Weaker (5)	23.0	21.2	44.2	+1.8	60%	40%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 90.5
Last 30 (30)	48.4	43.5	91.9	+4.9	53%	47%
Last 30 at home (17)	48.9	45.4	94.2	+3.5	53%	47%
Last 30 away (13)	47.8	41.1	88.9	+6.8	54%	46%
Last 10 (10)	43.7	44.7	88.4	-1.0	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	40.6	47.0	87.6	-6.4	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (1)	44.0	49.0	93.0	-5.0	0%	100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)	48.6	43.3	91.9	+5.3	55%	45%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 90.5
Last 30 (30)	45.1	45.8	90.9	-0.8	47%	57%
Last 30 at home (11)	46.1	46.2	92.3	-0.1	55%	73%
Last 30 away (19)	44.5	45.6	90.1	-1.2	42%	47%
Last 10 (10)	43.7	43.9	87.6	-0.2	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	40.6	45.0	85.6	-4.4	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)	42.8	48.2	91.0	-5.4	30%	60%
vs Similar (15)	45.6	46.0	91.6	-0.4	40%	60%
vs Weaker (5)	48.0	40.6	88.6	+7.4	100%	40%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

SYDN win + total 185.5

🔒 Pro

NEW win + total 185.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: SYDN leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: NEW leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (SYDN:NEW ): SYDN wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
New Zealand Breakers under 93.5	76.4%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	-	+10.1pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 95.5	81.7%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 99.5	89.7%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Lost
Sydney under 108.5	87.6%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Lost
Under 193	73.4%	1.43	Bet365 1.43	-	-	-	-	+8.0pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 91.5	70.2%	1.48	Bet365 1.54	1xBet 1.47	Betano 1.42	-	-	+8.0pp	Lost
Sydney under 107.5	85.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 92.5	73.4%	1.40	Betano 1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	+7.5pp	Lost
Under 195.5	77.7%	1.33	Bet365 1.33	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Lost
Under 193.5	73.9%	1.40	Bet365 1.40	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Lost
Sydney -2.5	77.6%	1.28	Betano 1.31	1xBet 1.30	Bet365 1.24	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Under 200.5	85.4%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 101.5	92.5%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Lost
Sydney under 106.5	83.1%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 105.5	96.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 94.5	79.2%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 103.5	94.6%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 97.5	86.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+6.7pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 98.5	88.1%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Lost
Under 205.5	91.0%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Lost
Sydney under 104.5	77.6%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Lost
Under 210.5	94.7%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 96.5	84.1%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+6.3pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 104.5	95.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers under 106.5	96.8%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
Sydney over 80.5	94.8%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+6.1pp	Won
Under 192.5	72.0%	1.42	Marathon Bet 1.45	1xBet 1.42	Bet365 1.40	Betano 1.39	-	+6.0pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 107.5	97.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.9pp	Won
Under 209.5	94.1%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+5.8pp	Lost
Sydney over 82.5	92.4%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
Under 199.5	84.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 100.5	91.2%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 102.5	93.7%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
Under 204.5	90.0%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Lost
Sydney (regulation)	80.6%	1.21	1xBet 1.22	Marathon Bet 1.22	Betano 1.18	-	-	+5.7pp	Lost
New Zealand Breakers under 108.5	97.8%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
Sydney over 86.5	85.0%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Won
Sydney under 102.5	71.1%	1.41	Bet365 1.41	-	-	-	-	+5.5pp	Lost
Under 192	71.4%	1.44	Marathon Bet 1.47	Bet365 1.42	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Lost
Sydney over 84.5	89.2%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
Sydney +10.5	96.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
Sydney -2	80.1%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
Sydney over 87.5	82.6%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Under 194.5	75.8%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Lost
Sydney over 88.5	80.0%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Overtime: no	96.6%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Lost
Sydney +15.5	98.3%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Sydney +9.5	95.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Won
Sydney +14.5	97.9%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
Sydney -1.5	80.7%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
Over 159.5	92.5%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Sydney over 90.5	74.0%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+3.5pp	Won
Sydney -3.5	75.0%	1.31	1xBet 1.36	Marathon Bet 1.30	Betano 1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	+3.3pp	Won
Sydney -4.5	71.8%	1.36	1xBet 1.41	Marathon Bet 1.36	BetVictor 1.36	Betano 1.33	Bet365 1.33	+2.8pp	Won
Over 160.5	91.6%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+2.6pp	Won
Sydney +4.5	89.7%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+2.6pp	Won
Sydney win	82.6%	1.19	1xBet 1.23	Marathon Bet 1.22	WilliamHill 1.20	BetVictor 1.20	Pinnacle 1.19	+2.2pp	Won
Sydney -3	77.0%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+2.2pp	Won
Sydney -4	74.2%	1.31	Marathon Bet 1.32	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	+2.1pp	Won
Sydney -5	70.8%	1.37	Marathon Bet 1.38	Bet365 1.36	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +20.5	80.8%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+1.9pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +18	75.0%	1.28	Bet365 1.28	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +18.5	75.7%	1.26	Bet365 1.26	-	-	-	-	+1.7pp	Won
Over 164.5	87.1%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+1.6pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +24.5	88.6%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +17	72.1%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers over 78.5	77.2%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+1.0pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +17.5	72.9%	1.28	Bet365 1.31	Betano 1.25	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
Over 165.5	85.8%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.3pp	Won
Over 169.5	79.5%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers +19.5	78.3%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-0.5pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers over 80.5	70.8%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	-0.6pp	Won
Over 170.5	77.7%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-1.6pp	Won
New Zealand Breakers over 79.5	74.1%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	-2.1pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 97.3 points a game scored

🏀🏀52%

🏀🏀🏀31%

🏀16%

🏀🏀 2-pointers51.0 pts a game · 52% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 31% of the points

🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 16% of the points

League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	44.1	25.5	57.8%	56.4%	51.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.8	10.2	35.4%	34.2%	30.6
🏀 Free throws	20.5	15.7	76.6%	74.0%	15.7

They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 90.6 points a game scored

🏀🏀47%

🏀🏀🏀39%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 47% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.2	21.3	55.8%	56.4%	42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.3	11.7	41.3%	34.2%	35.1
🏀 Free throws	18.8	12.9	68.6%	74.0%	12.9

They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.9	18.5	51.5%	56.4%	37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	37.5	12.6	33.6%	34.2%	37.8
🏀 Free throws	18.4	13.3	72.3%	74.0%	13.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.5	20.8	55.5%	56.4%	41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	31.6	10.7	33.9%	34.2%	32.1
🏀 Free throws	19.9	14.0	70.4%	74.0%	14.0

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.8	26.2	59.8%	56.4%	52.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.8	11.0	36.9%	34.2%	33.0
🏀 Free throws	21.4	16.0	74.9%	74.0%	16.0

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	44.1	24.7	55.9%	56.4%	49.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.9	9.6	35.5%	34.2%	28.7
🏀 Free throws	20.2	14.3	70.8%	74.0%	14.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.5	19.7	51.1%	56.4%	39.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	35.8	11.8	32.9%	34.2%	35.4
🏀 Free throws	17.7	13.7	77.4%	74.0%	13.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.2	22.3	56.8%	56.4%	44.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.1	11.0	34.3%	34.2%	33.0
🏀 Free throws	20.6	15.5	75.2%	74.0%	15.5

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Sydney

LWWWLWWLLW

New Zealand Breakers

WLLLLLWLWW

League position

+9.9

Net rating

+3.3

105.0

Offensive rating

102.8

95.0

Defensive rating

99.5

56.0%

Effective FG%

58.4%

51.0%

Opp. effective FG%

53.3%

11.6%

Turnover %

14.1%

0.28

Free-throw rate

0.28

35.4%

3-point %

41.3%

58.0%

Assist %

63.3%

60%

Form (last 10/10)

40%

Profile

■ Sydney ■ New Zealand Breakers

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Sydney wins

New Zealand Breakers wins

Date	Game	Score
14/10/26	Sydney v New Zealand Breakers	101-102
09/01/26	New Zealand Breakers v Sydney	62-103
03/12/25	New Zealand Breakers v Sydney	95-90
09/11/25	Sydney v New Zealand Breakers	79-72
04/10/25	Sydney v New Zealand Breakers	97-75
20/12/24	New Zealand Breakers v Sydney	84-92
07/12/24	New Zealand Breakers v Sydney	83-98
27/10/24	Sydney v New Zealand Breakers	89-93
28/02/24	Sydney v New Zealand Breakers	76-83
14/01/24	Sydney v New Zealand Breakers	105-76

Sydneylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
13/11/26	A	Cairns Taipans	82-84
08/11/26	H	South East Melbourne	110-99
30/10/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	71-68
28/10/26	A	Perth	99-91
25/10/26	A	Melbourne United	95-105
22/10/26	A	Illawarra Hawks	108-82
17/10/26	H	Perth	102-81
14/10/26	H	New Zealand Breakers	101-102
11/10/26	H	Adelaide	78-84
30/09/26	H	Brisbane Bullets	93-78

New Zealand Breakerslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
13/11/26	H	Brisbane Bullets	94-90 OT
06/11/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	77-79
02/11/26	A	Melbourne United	74-94
30/10/26	H	Adelaide	101-108
25/10/26	A	Cairns Taipans	84-86
18/10/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	92-98
14/10/26	A	Sydney	102-101
10/10/26	A	Perth	84-100
04/10/26	A	Adelaide	88-72
30/09/26	H	Cairns Taipans	98-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney

NBL 2026-27

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWL	67%
Home	WLLWW	71%
Away	WLWWL	60%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	12	7	5
Win %	67%	71%	60%
Points / game	97.6	102.3	91.0
Allowed / game	88.7	90.6	86.0
Point differential	+8.9	+11.7	+5.0
Avg total	186.2	192.9	177.0
Over 186	58%	57%	60%
Win by 10+	50%	71%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	0% (1)	50% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

New Zealand Breakers

NBL 2026-27

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLW	38%
Home	WWLW	75%
Away	WLLLL	22%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	13	4	9
Win %	38%	75%	22%
Points / game	89.8	97.0	86.6
Allowed / game	89.9	88.5	90.6
Point differential	-0.2	+8.5	-4.0
Avg total	179.7	185.5	177.1
Over 186	31%	25%	33%
Win by 10+	23%	50%	11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (6)	100% (1)	20% (5)
Overtime %	8%	25%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Sydney	12	8	4	67%	97.6	88.7	+8.9
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	12	8	4	67%	93.9	90.2	+3.7
3	Melbourne United	14	8	6	57%	98.3	91.9	+6.4
4	Cairns Taipans	14	8	6	57%	92.4	95.9	-3.6
5	Adelaide	13	7	6	54%	92.9	92.5	+0.5
6	Perth	13	7	6	54%	95.7	97.8	-2.1
7	Brisbane Bullets	13	6	7	46%	94.5	98.8	-4.3
8	New Zealand Breakers	13	5	8	38%	89.8	89.9	-0.2
9	Illawarra Hawks	15	5	10	33%	97.5	104.7	-7.3
10	South East Melbourne	13	4	9	31%	97.9	98.1	-0.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
Sydney	21	24	20	22	24	111
New Zealand Breakers	20	25	19	23	15	102

← all games of the day

Sydney vs New Zealand Breakers Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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