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Sydney vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 04:00
Final 78-84
18-18 26-23 12-20 22-23
Position#1
Record3-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game108.3
Allowed / game89.3
Sydney
Australia
vs
Adelaide 🏆
Australia
Position#5
Record2-4
FormLWLLL
Points / game88.7
Allowed / game93.3
AustraliaNBLRound 4· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Sydney v Adelaide
11 Oct 2026
SYDN78
ADEL84
05 Apr 2026
SYDN113
ADEL101
29 Mar 2026
SYDN106
ADEL93
21 Mar 2026
SYDN112
ADEL68
25 Jan 2026
SYDN106
ADEL101
17 Dec 2025
SYDN97
ADEL93
13 Feb 2025
SYDN88
ADEL95
24 Jan 2025
SYDN96
ADEL105
30 Dec 2024
SYDN96
ADEL111
08 Oct 2023
SYDN109
ADEL100
04 Dec 2022
SYDN97
ADEL78
21 Oct 2022
SYDN88
ADEL92
17 Apr 2022
SYDN82
ADEL90
16 May 2021
SYDN85
ADEL75
09 May 2021
SYDN88
ADEL97
21 Feb 2021
SYDN94
ADEL77
04 Jan 2020
SYDN91
ADEL77
12 Oct 2019
SYDN102
ADEL80
19 Jan 2019
SYDN99
ADEL119
13 Oct 2018
SYDN83
ADEL94
13 Jan 2018
SYDN101
ADEL104
07 Oct 2017
SYDN96
ADEL105
18 Dec 2016
SYDN96
ADEL103
28 Nov 2016
SYDN85
ADEL91
12 Nov 2015
SYDN106
ADEL84
23 Oct 2015
SYDN80
ADEL91
25 Jan 2015
SYDN86
ADEL105
09 Nov 2014
SYDN107
ADEL100
16 Mar 2014
SYDN100
ADEL90
26 Jan 2014
SYDN105
ADEL93
05 Jan 2013
SYDN86
ADEL82
04 Nov 2012
SYDN81
ADEL88
30 Dec 2011
SYDN77
ADEL96
08 Dec 2011
SYDN107
ADEL103
13 Mar 2011
SYDN76
ADEL72
04 Feb 2011
SYDN99
ADEL90
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
W
105-104
105
104
+1
H11/03
NBL
Perth
#5
W
89-75
89
75
+14
A14/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
112-68
112
68
+44
H21/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
89-91
89
91
-2
A27/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
106-93
106
93
+13
H29/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
91-92
91
92
-1
A01/04
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
113-101 OT
113
101
+12
H05/04
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
111-90
111
90
+21
H20/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
121-100
121
100
+21
H27/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
93-78
93
78
+15
H30/09
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-24
26-20
25-31
32-29
22-23
21-23
17-13
29-16
31-23
28-16
31-17
22-12
30-25
22-28
25-15
12-23
24-31
28-22
21-17
33-23
24-22
29-24
21-26
17-20
29-31
27-24
13-21
26-19
32-26
27-27
31-20
21-17
31-27
34-18
33-26
23-29
23-34
20-10
29-14
21-20
192.2Avg total
103.0Scored
89.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)108.389.3197.7+19.0100%
Season at home (3)108.389.3197.7+19.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)103.089.2192.2+13.880%
Last 5 (5)105.892.2198.0+13.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)104.188.5192.6+15.683%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
W
91-89
91
89
+2
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
93-106
93
106
-13
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
92-91
92
91
+1
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
101-113 OT
101
113
-12
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
97-95
97
95
+2
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#3
L
97-98
97
98
-1
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
83-69
83
69
+14
H27/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
L
92-114
92
114
-22
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
72-88
72
88
-16
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
L
91-96
91
96
-5
H07/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
28-22
15-25
23-12
31-24
22-28
17-21
23-33
22-24
24-29
26-21
20-17
31-29
24-27
21-13
19-26
25-23
24-25
26-22
22-25
20-30
28-18
29-22
20-28
32-17
20-17
15-17
16-18
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
21-31
17-25
21-20
32-20
186.8Avg total
90.9Scored
95.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)88.793.3182.0-4.733%
Season at home (3)82.084.3166.3-2.333%
Season away (3)95.3102.3197.7-7.033%
Last 10 (10)90.995.9186.8-5.040%
Last 5 (5)87.093.0180.0-6.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)92.199.0191.1-6.943%
vs Similar (10)89.189.1178.2+0.050%
vs Weaker (6)95.387.5182.8+7.867%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +4.6+4.6Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: -1.4-1.4
SydneyAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H11/03
NBL
Perth
#5
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A14/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
59-39
59
39
+20
H21/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
52-53
52
53
-1
A27/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H29/03
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A01/04
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
56-55
56
55
+1
H05/04
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
59-53
59
53
+6
H20/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
65-45
65
45
+20
H27/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H30/09
NBL
100.8Avg total
53.0Scored
47.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.845.698.3+7.273%-
Last 30 at home (18)55.145.6100.7+9.583%-
Last 30 away (12)49.245.594.8+3.858%-
Last 10 (10)53.047.8100.8+5.260%-
Last 5 (5)55.248.6103.8+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)52.845.698.3+7.273%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H27/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A29/03
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H01/04
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A05/04
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A19/09
NBL
Perth
#3
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A24/09
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H27/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H07/10
NBL
98.3Avg total
47.1Scored
51.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.448.193.5-2.747%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.947.192.0-2.140%-
Last 30 away (15)45.849.194.9-3.353%-
Last 10 (10)47.151.298.3-4.140%-
Last 5 (5)43.050.293.2-7.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)47.451.098.4-3.643%-
vs Similar (10)43.144.787.8-1.640%-
vs Weaker (6)44.547.091.5-2.567%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 102.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.025.2
58.6%
56.0%50.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.811.5
38.6%
34.4%34.5
🏀 Free throws23.117.2
74.5%
73.7%17.2
They take 72.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 90.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.421.3
54.1%
56.0%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.710.6
33.4%
34.4%31.8
🏀 Free throws21.015.9
75.7%
73.7%15.9
They take 71.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WWWWLWLWWW
Adelaide
LLLWLWLWLW
#1
League position
#5
+15.0
Net rating
-5.4
110.0
Offensive rating
99.6
95.0
Defensive rating
105.0
58.3%
Effective FG%
52.3%
50.3%
Opp. effective FG%
57.0%
10.1%
Turnover %
11.5%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.30
38.6%
3-point %
33.4%
59.7%
Assist %
71.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence110.0 · 99.6Defence95.0 · 105.0Shooting58.3% · 52.3%3-point %38.6% · 33.4%Ball care10.1% · 11.5%Free throws0.32 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Sydney   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Sydney wins
4
Adelaide wins
DateGameScore
05/04/26Sydney v Adelaide113-101 OT
01/04/26Adelaide v Sydney92-91
29/03/26Sydney v Adelaide106-93
27/03/26Adelaide v Sydney91-89
21/03/26Sydney v Adelaide112-68
25/01/26Sydney v Adelaide106-101
02/01/26Adelaide v Sydney85-79
17/12/25Sydney v Adelaide97-93 OT
11/10/25Adelaide v Sydney79-103
13/02/25Sydney v Adelaide88-95
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/09/26HBrisbane Bullets93-78
27/09/26HIllawarra Hawks121-100
20/09/26HCairns Taipans111-90
05/04/26HAdelaide113-101 OT
01/04/26AAdelaide91-92
29/03/26HAdelaide106-93
27/03/26AAdelaide89-91
21/03/26HAdelaide112-68
14/03/26APerth89-75
11/03/26HPerth105-104
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/10/26HMelbourne United91-96
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114
27/09/26HCairns Taipans83-69
24/09/26APerth97-98
19/09/26AMelbourne United97-95
05/04/26ASydney101-113 OT
01/04/26HSydney92-91
29/03/26ASydney93-106
27/03/26HSydney91-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game108.3108.3-
Allowed / game89.389.3-
Point differential+19.0+19.0-
Avg total197.7197.7-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL33%
HomeWLL33%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %33%33%33%
Points / game88.782.095.3
Allowed / game93.384.3102.3
Point differential-4.7-2.3-7.0
Avg total182.0166.3197.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney330100%108.389.3+19.0
2 Tasmania JackJumpers54180%99.695.4+4.2
3 Perth54180%93.292.4+0.8
4 New Zealand Breakers63350%90.585.5+5.0
5 Melbourne United63350%93.089.8+3.2
6 Cairns Taipans63350%88.594.2-5.7
7 Brisbane Bullets52340%91.895.8-4.0
8 South East Melbourne62433%92.092.2-0.2
9 Adelaide62433%88.793.3-4.7
10 Illawarra Hawks61517%99.7107.7-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney1826122278
Adelaide1823202384
← all games of the day
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