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Sydney vs New Zealand Breakers Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 07:30
Final 97-75
22-15 17-19 31-18 27-23
Position#1
Record0-1
FormLLLLL
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game77.0
Sydney 🏆
Australia
vs
Position#7
Record0-3
FormWLLLL
Points / game85.0
Allowed / game102.3
AustraliaNBLRound 3· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Sydney v New Zealand Breakers
15 Nov 2026
SYDN v NEW
upcoming
14 Oct 2026
SYDN101
NEW 102
09 Nov 2025
SYDN79
NEW 72
04 Oct 2025
SYDN97
NEW 75
27 Oct 2024
SYDN89
NEW 93
28 Feb 2024
SYDN76
NEW 83
14 Jan 2024
SYDN105
NEW 76
05 Nov 2023
SYDN87
NEW 85
15 Mar 2023
SYDN77
NEW 69
10 Mar 2023
SYDN91
NEW 68
03 Mar 2023
SYDN87
NEW 95
22 Jan 2023
SYDN88
NEW 93
06 Feb 2022
SYDN84
NEW 65
16 Jan 2022
SYDN75
NEW 82
25 Feb 2021
SYDN96
NEW 78
12 Feb 2021
SYDN84
NEW 74
18 Oct 2019
SYDN96
NEW 91
11 Jan 2019
SYDN100
NEW 92
18 Nov 2018
SYDN100
NEW 87
18 Feb 2018
SYDN101
NEW 86
21 Dec 2017
SYDN95
NEW 98
29 Jan 2017
SYDN84
NEW 57
30 Dec 2016
SYDN85
NEW 80
27 Dec 2015
SYDN83
NEW 93
19 Nov 2015
SYDN74
NEW 86
26 Dec 2014
SYDN85
NEW 97
06 Dec 2014
SYDN82
NEW 69
08 Feb 2014
SYDN98
NEW 96
29 Dec 2013
SYDN83
NEW 99
01 Apr 2013
SYDN88
NEW 99
09 Feb 2013
SYDN94
NEW 96
08 Dec 2012
SYDN75
NEW 62
15 Oct 2011
SYDN61
NEW 98
05 Dec 2010
SYDN80
NEW 94
16 Oct 2010
SYDN70
NEW 83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
New Zealand Breakers winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
91-86
91
86
+5
88avg 81
A04/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
88-90
88
90
-2
78avg 81
H09/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
91-87
91
87
+4
80avg 81
H12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
88-77
88
77
+11
73avg 81
H19/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
103-92
103
92
+11
103avg 81
A22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
96-105
96
105
-9
82avg 81
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#3
L
97-104
97
104
-7
97avg 81
H02/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
75-95
75
95
-20
62avg 81
A07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
88-95
88
95
-7
82avg 81
H13/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
74-77
74
77
-3
55avg 81
H28/09
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-29
17-19
24-23
22-15
16-32
25-25
23-13
24-20
17-19
22-19
25-24
27-25
16-15
22-19
18-21
32-22
26-22
36-23
17-23
24-24
23-34
32-18
18-26
23-27
21-32
27-24
26-29
23-19
24-29
15-21
22-15
14-30
22-23
19-28
30-18
17-26
18-22
27-18
13-21
16-16
179.9Avg total
89.1Scored
90.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)74.077.0151.0-3.00%
Season at home (1)74.077.0151.0-3.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)89.190.8179.9-1.740%
Last 5 (5)86.095.2181.2-9.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)87.897.0184.8-9.20%
vs Similar (9)91.790.9182.6+0.844%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)89.184.1173.1+5.065%
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreakers
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#2
L
89-91
89
91
-2
78avg 79
H13/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
85-75
85
75
+10
85avg 79
H16/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
89-102
89
102
-13
81avg 79
A18/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
87-93
87
93
-6
80avg 79
H24/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
78-94
78
94
-16
71avg 79
A26/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
99-92
99
92
+7
104avg 79
H01/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
82-96
82
96
-14
72avg 79
H05/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
95-104
95
104
-9
no box
H19/09
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
82-114
82
114
-32
no box
A21/09
NBL
Perth
#5
L
78-89
78
89
-11
no box
H27/09
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-25
16-16
29-21
18-29
19-8
20-37
22-17
24-13
17-30
27-19
21-27
24-26
19-21
21-25
23-20
24-27
15-27
20-30
23-22
20-15
26-28
28-21
25-15
20-28
17-27
23-22
19-33
23-14
20-21
24-25
22-28
29-30
15-34
18-21
22-34
27-25
17-25
25-19
17-18
19-27
181.4Avg total
86.4Scored
95.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.0102.3187.3-17.30%
Season at home (2)86.596.5183.0-10.00%
Season away (1)82.0114.0196.0-32.00%
Last 10 (10)86.495.0181.4-8.620%
Last 5 (5)87.299.0186.2-11.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)86.497.2183.7-10.819%
vs Similar (13)83.887.0170.8-3.238%
vs Weaker (1)95.0104.0199.0-9.00%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -0.6-0.6
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q1: -5.5-5.5Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -0.6-0.6
SydneyNew Zealand Breakers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A04/01
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
41-57
41
57
-16
H09/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H19/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
62-45
62
45
+17
A22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#3
L
48-56
48
56
-8
H02/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H13/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H28/09
NBL
92.4Avg total
45.3Scored
47.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.546.791.2-2.237%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.147.993.0-2.938%-
Last 30 away (14)43.945.289.1-1.436%-
Last 10 (10)45.347.192.4-1.850%-
Last 5 (5)45.649.895.4-4.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)44.850.094.8-5.20%-
vs Similar (9)45.449.695.0-4.133%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)43.944.488.3-0.447%-
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#2
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H13/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
39-45
39
45
-6
H16/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A18/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
40-46
40
46
-6
H24/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
35-57
35
57
-22
A26/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H01/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
40-49
40
49
-9
H05/02
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
44-46
44
46
-2
H19/09
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
33-55
33
55
-22
A21/09
NBL
Perth
#5
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H27/09
NBL
89.4Avg total
41.3Scored
48.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.947.690.5-4.830%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.346.790.0-3.533%-
Last 30 away (15)42.548.591.0-6.127%-
Last 10 (10)41.348.189.4-6.820%-
Last 5 (5)42.648.691.2-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)42.849.291.9-6.431%-
vs Similar (13)42.945.888.8-2.931%-
vs Weaker (1)44.046.090.0-2.00%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 88.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.722.5
51.5%
54.6%45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.88.2
31.8%
33.3%24.6
🏀 Free throws24.318.9
77.8%
74.8%18.9
They take 69.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 86.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.822.7
58.5%
54.6%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.89.1
34.0%
33.3%27.3
🏀 Free throws19.613.6
69.4%
74.8%13.6
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
LLLLLWWWLW
New Zealand Breakers
LLLLWLLLWL
#1
League position
#7
-1.9
Net rating
-7.4
110.0
Offensive rating
111.3
111.8
Defensive rating
118.6
50.1%
Effective FG%
55.4%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
13.7%
Turnover %
18.0%
28.5%
Off. rebound %
29.2%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.30
31.8%
3-point %
34.0%
53.1%
Assist %
57.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence110.0 · 111.3Defence111.8 · 118.6Shooting50.1% · 55.4%3-point %31.8% · 34.0%Ball care13.7% · 18.0%Off. rebounds28.5% · 29.2%Free throws0.35 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Sydney   ■ New Zealand Breakers
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Sydney wins
4
New Zealand Breakers wins
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/09/25HCairns Taipans74-77
13/02/25HAdelaide88-95
07/02/25AIllawarra Hawks75-95
02/02/25HPerth97-104
24/01/25HAdelaide96-105
22/01/25ASouth East Melbourne103-92
19/01/25HTasmania JackJumpers88-77
12/01/25HCairns Taipans91-87
09/01/25HMelbourne United88-90
04/01/25ABrisbane Bullets91-86
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/09/25HPerth78-89
21/09/25AMelbourne United82-114
19/09/25HBrisbane Bullets95-104
05/02/25HIllawarra Hawks82-96
01/02/25HCairns Taipans99-92
26/01/25AAdelaide78-94
24/01/25HBrisbane Bullets87-93
18/01/25ASouth East Melbourne89-102
16/01/25HTasmania JackJumpers85-75
13/01/25HMelbourne United89-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game74.074.0-
Allowed / game77.077.0-
Point differential-3.0-3.0-
Avg total151.0151.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
New Zealand Breakers
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game85.086.582.0
Allowed / game102.396.5114.0
Point differential-17.3-10.0-32.0
Avg total187.3183.0196.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide220100%98.579.5+19.0
2 Melbourne United330100%101.783.0+18.7
3 Perth32167%84.379.0+5.3
4 Tasmania JackJumpers32167%83.382.0+1.3
5 South East Melbourne21150%98.590.0+8.5
6 Cairns Taipans42250%79.095.0-16.0
7 Brisbane Bullets31233%88.788.3+0.3
8 Sydney1010%74.077.0-3.0
9 Illawarra Hawks2020%85.091.5-6.5
10 New Zealand Breakers3030%85.0102.3-17.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney2217312797
New Zealand Breakers1519182375
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