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Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 16 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 00:30
Scheduled
Position#14
Record5-5
FormWWLWL
Points / game119.6
Allowed / game111.5
vs
Position#19
Record5-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game122.7
Allowed / game121.9
USANBA· Scotiabank Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat
15 Jan 2027
TOR v MIA
upcoming
03 Oct 2026
TOR105
MIA129
09 Apr 2026
TOR128
MIA114
07 Apr 2026
TOR121
MIA95
21 Feb 2025
TOR111
MIA120
01 Dec 2024
TOR119
MIA116
17 Jan 2024
TOR121
MIA97
06 Dec 2023
TOR103
MIA112
28 Mar 2023
TOR106
MIA92
16 Nov 2022
TOR112
MIA104
15 Jul 2022
TOR88
MIA78
03 Apr 2022
TOR109
MIA114
01 Feb 2022
TOR110
MIA106
22 Jan 2021
TOR101
MIA81
20 Jan 2021
TOR102
MIA111
18 Dec 2020
TOR105
MIA117
03 Dec 2019
TOR110
MIA121
07 Apr 2019
TOR117
MIA109
25 Nov 2018
TOR125
MIA115
13 Feb 2018
TOR115
MIA112
09 Jan 2018
TOR89
MIA90
07 Apr 2017
TOR96
MIA94
04 Nov 2016
TOR96
MIA87
15 May 2016
TOR116
MIA89
11 May 2016
TOR99
MIA91
05 May 2016
TOR96
MIA92
03 May 2016
TOR96
MIA102
12 Mar 2016
TOR112
MIA104
22 Jan 2016
TOR101
MIA81
13 Mar 2015
TOR102
MIA92
29 Nov 2013
TOR83
MIA90
05 Nov 2013
TOR95
MIA104
13 Jul 2013
TOR72
MIA81
17 Mar 2013
TOR91
MIA108
03 Feb 2013
TOR85
MIA100
30 Mar 2012
TOR101
MIA113
13 Apr 2011
TOR79
MIA97
16 Feb 2011
TOR95
MIA103
27 Jan 2010
TOR111
MIA103
20 Nov 2009
TOR120
MIA113
06 Mar 2009
TOR102
MIA108
16 Nov 2008
TOR107
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#19
L
105-129
105
129
-24
no box
H03/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
W
114-106
114
106
+8
93avg 108
H10/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#27
W
148-98
148
98
+50
133avg 108
H13/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#27
L
120-122
120
122
-2
109avg 108
A15/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#4
L
125-129
125
129
-4
58avg 108
A16/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
W
135-92
135
92
+43
124avg 108
H21/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#16
W
112-102
112
102
+10
99avg 108
A23/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#13
L
94-117
94
117
-23
52avg 108
A25/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#18
W
129-99
129
99
+30
127avg 108
H28/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#18
L
114-121
114
121
-7
99avg 108
H30/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-41
32-35
25-19
25-34
24-18
33-27
32-27
25-34
42-22
44-25
30-31
32-20
32-35
26-28
21-24
41-35
33-33
19-26
28-34
45-36
43-23
26-21
34-27
32-21
34-21
26-31
21-25
31-25
21-32
26-23
15-35
32-27
32-25
37-28
34-23
26-23
27-31
28-33
33-31
26-26
231.1Avg total
119.6Scored
111.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)119.6111.5231.1+8.150%
Season at home (6)124.2107.5231.7+16.767%
Season away (4)112.8117.5230.2-4.825%
Last 10 (10)119.6111.5231.1+8.150%
Last 5 (5)116.8106.2223.0+10.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)104.0118.0222.0-14.00%
vs Similar (14)112.1111.7223.9+0.443%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)124.5109.4233.8+15.169%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
128-118
128
118
+10
101avg 114
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#13
L
124-125
124
125
-1
82avg 114
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#21
W
144-128
144
128
+16
129avg 114
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#18
L
115-136
115
136
-21
80avg 114
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#13
L
106-131
106
131
-25
98avg 114
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#4
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 114
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#25
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 114
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 114
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#9
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 114
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 114
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-36
40-28
20-32
35-22
23-24
33-36
28-31
40-34
35-29
34-37
43-37
32-25
36-34
29-36
30-38
20-28
32-34
27-35
22-30
25-32
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
245.7Avg total
122.1Scored
123.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)122.7121.9244.6+0.845%
Season at home (7)123.9124.0247.9-0.143%
Season away (4)120.8118.2239.0+2.550%
Last 10 (10)122.1123.6245.7-1.540%
Last 5 (5)120.8119.6240.4+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)118.7126.0244.7-7.329%
vs Similar (17)122.7123.8246.5-1.141%
vs Weaker (6)130.3122.8253.2+7.567%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +3.3+3.3
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: +3.3+3.3
Toronto RaptorsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#19
L
55-76
55
76
-21
H03/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
W
57-45
57
45
+12
H10/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#27
W
86-47
86
47
+39
H13/10
NBA
New York Knicks
#27
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A15/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#4
L
52-59
52
59
-7
A16/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#24
W
69-44
69
44
+25
H21/10
NBA
Washington Wizards
#16
W
60-52
60
52
+8
A23/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#13
L
47-55
47
55
-8
A25/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#18
W
69-53
69
53
+16
H28/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#18
L
55-64
55
64
-9
H30/10
NBA
116.6Avg total
60.8Scored
55.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.754.3111.9+3.450%-
Last 30 at home (15)62.152.0114.1+10.173%-
Last 30 away (15)53.256.5109.7-3.327%-
Last 10 (10)60.855.8116.6+5.050%-
Last 5 (5)60.053.6113.6+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)45.354.7100.0-9.30%-
vs Similar (14)55.253.9109.1+1.343%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)63.254.5117.7+8.669%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
73-64
73
64
+9
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#13
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#21
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#18
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#13
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#4
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#25
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#9
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
125.2Avg total
62.2Scored
63.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.462.6124.9-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (17)63.162.6125.6+0.553%-
Last 30 away (13)61.562.5124.0-1.138%-
Last 10 (10)62.263.0125.2-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)60.060.2120.2-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)60.964.7125.6-3.929%-
vs Similar (17)60.562.2122.6-1.747%-
vs Weaker (6)69.561.2130.7+8.367%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 114.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws24.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.928.1
51.2%
54.0%56.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.311.5
32.6%
34.8%34.5
🏀 Free throws32.124.1
75.1%
76.3%24.1
They take 90.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 120.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.630.2
56.3%
54.0%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.713.6
34.3%
34.8%40.8
🏀 Free throws26.619.3
72.6%
76.3%19.3
They take 93.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
LWLWWLLWWL
Miami Heat
WWLLLLLWLW
#14
League position
#19
+3.5
Net rating
-1.0
102.5
Offensive rating
105.1
99.0
Defensive rating
106.1
50.3%
Effective FG%
54.2%
52.1%
Opp. effective FG%
55.2%
13.0%
Turnover %
12.7%
22.4%
Off. rebound %
10.7%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.6%
3-point %
34.3%
65.4%
Assist %
66.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence102.5 · 105.1Defence99.0 · 106.1Shooting50.3% · 54.2%3-point %32.6% · 34.3%Ball care13.0% · 12.7%Off. rebounds22.4% · 10.7%Free throws0.36 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Toronto Raptors wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26HOrlando Magic114-121
28/10/26HOrlando Magic129-99
25/10/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-117
23/10/26AWashington Wizards112-102
21/10/26HChicago Bulls135-92
16/10/26ADetroit Pistons125-129
15/10/26ANew York Knicks120-122
13/10/26HNew York Knicks148-98
10/10/26HLos Angeles Clippers114-106
03/10/26HMiami Heat105-129
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
21/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves106-131
16/10/26AOrlando Magic115-136
14/10/26HBrooklyn Nets144-128
11/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves124-125
08/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans128-118

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL50%
HomeWWWWL67%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %50%67%25%
Points / game119.6124.2112.8
Allowed / game111.5107.5117.5
Point differential+8.1+16.7-4.8
Avg total231.1231.7230.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)-0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW45%
HomeWLLLW43%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %45%43%50%
Points / game122.7123.9120.8
Allowed / game121.9124.0118.2
Point differential+0.8-0.1+2.5
Avg total244.6247.9239.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%43%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics109190%121.9108.7+13.2
2 Memphis Grizzlies109190%119.7107.9+11.8
3 Houston Rockets108280%121.1109.6+11.5
4 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
5 Portland Trail Blazers86275%119.2111.2+8.0
6 Philadelphia 76ers117464%110.5110.4+0.1
7 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
8 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
9 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.9116.2+2.8
10 Cleveland Cavaliers95456%119.3117.4+1.9
11 San Antonio Spurs116555%116.0109.5+6.5
12 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
13 Minnesota Timberwolves137654%118.2113.1+5.2
14 Toronto Raptors105550%119.6111.5+8.1
15 New Orleans Pelicans105550%116.0114.8+1.2
16 Washington Wizards105550%111.6111.3+0.3
17 Dallas Mavericks105550%114.3115.7-1.4
18 Orlando Magic105550%114.1116.8-2.7
19 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
20 Oklahoma City Thunder115645%108.0111.5-3.5
21 Brooklyn Nets104640%114.6116.0-1.4
22 Utah Jazz104640%110.5115.2-4.7
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Charlotte Hornets114736%97.6108.1-10.5
26 Indiana Pacers113827%115.4117.3-1.9
27 New York Knicks113827%106.5115.2-8.6
28 Milwaukee Bucks113827%111.4123.3-11.9
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings110110%106.4123.5-17.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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