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Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 07 Apr 2019
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 117-109 (OT)
25-26 25-31 28-22 25-24 14-6
Position#2
Record59-25
FormWWWWL
Points / game114.4
Allowed / game108.3
vs
Position#17
Record41-44
FormWWLLL
Points / game106.1
Allowed / game106.3
USANBA· Scotiabank Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat
15 Jan 2027
TOR v MIA
upcoming
03 Oct 2026
TOR105
MIA129
09 Apr 2026
TOR128
MIA114
07 Apr 2026
TOR121
MIA95
21 Feb 2025
TOR111
MIA120
01 Dec 2024
TOR119
MIA116
17 Jan 2024
TOR121
MIA97
06 Dec 2023
TOR103
MIA112
28 Mar 2023
TOR106
MIA92
16 Nov 2022
TOR112
MIA104
15 Jul 2022
TOR88
MIA78
03 Apr 2022
TOR109
MIA114
01 Feb 2022
TOR110
MIA106
22 Jan 2021
TOR101
MIA81
20 Jan 2021
TOR102
MIA111
18 Dec 2020
TOR105
MIA117
03 Dec 2019
TOR110
MIA121
07 Apr 2019
TOR117
MIA109
25 Nov 2018
TOR125
MIA115
13 Feb 2018
TOR115
MIA112
09 Jan 2018
TOR89
MIA90
07 Apr 2017
TOR96
MIA94
04 Nov 2016
TOR96
MIA87
15 May 2016
TOR116
MIA89
11 May 2016
TOR99
MIA91
05 May 2016
TOR96
MIA92
03 May 2016
TOR96
MIA102
12 Mar 2016
TOR112
MIA104
22 Jan 2016
TOR101
MIA81
13 Mar 2015
TOR102
MIA92
29 Nov 2013
TOR83
MIA90
05 Nov 2013
TOR95
MIA104
13 Jul 2013
TOR72
MIA81
17 Mar 2013
TOR91
MIA108
03 Feb 2013
TOR85
MIA100
30 Mar 2012
TOR101
MIA113
13 Apr 2011
TOR79
MIA97
16 Feb 2011
TOR95
MIA103
27 Jan 2010
TOR111
MIA103
20 Nov 2009
TOR120
MIA113
06 Mar 2009
TOR102
MIA108
16 Nov 2008
TOR107
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#30
W
128-92
128
92
+36
H18/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
123-114 OT
123
114
+9
A21/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
L
109-116
109
116
-7
H22/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
114-115
114
115
-1
H24/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
112-103
112
103
+9
H26/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
W
117-92
117
92
+25
A28/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
124-101
124
101
+23
A31/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
121-109
121
109
+12
H01/04
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
W
115-105
115
105
+10
A03/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
111-113
111
113
-2
A05/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-29
35-25
28-15
27-23
39-31
24-24
29-23
18-32
29-22
29-26
22-35
29-33
32-27
25-31
26-37
31-20
26-18
30-23
29-31
27-31
30-18
25-18
32-28
30-28
26-28
41-28
26-19
31-26
29-36
33-16
33-23
26-34
34-22
23-28
33-28
25-27
34-33
31-24
21-33
25-23
223.4Avg total
117.4Scored
106.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (84)114.4108.3222.7+6.170%
Season at home (42)115.3107.1222.4+8.379%
Season away (42)113.5109.5223.0+4.062%
Last 10 (10)117.4106.0223.4+11.470%
Last 5 (5)117.6104.0221.6+13.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)111.8110.2222.0+1.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)116.4108.3224.7+8.173%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
116-107
116
107
+9
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
110-105
110
105
+5
A21/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
87-116
87
116
-29
A23/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
W
113-108
113
108
+5
A23/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
L
99-104
99
104
-5
H26/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
105-99
105
99
+6
H28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
W
100-92
100
92
+8
A30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
105-110
105
110
-5
A01/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
102-112
102
112
-10
H03/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
109-111
109
111
-2
A06/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
31-30
28-20
30-32
24-22
38-25
28-31
20-27
32-33
19-30
18-31
18-22
25-27
27-26
26-26
35-29
32-18
19-24
19-34
29-28
26-29
23-30
26-23
30-17
29-33
26-28
24-18
21-13
17-36
30-25
30-27
28-22
31-29
18-24
32-30
21-29
35-36
34-25
22-29
18-21
211.0Avg total
104.6Scored
106.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (85)106.1106.3212.4-0.248%
Season at home (43)106.4106.2212.6+0.149%
Season away (42)105.8106.4212.2-0.548%
Last 10 (10)104.6106.4211.0-1.850%
Last 5 (5)104.2104.8209.0-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)108.5120.0228.5-11.517%
vs Similar (20)103.5101.5204.9+2.050%
vs Weaker (4)115.2109.8225.0+5.575%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +5.3+5.3Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: +5.3+5.3Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +1.0+1.0
Toronto RaptorsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#30
W
73-54
73
54
+19
H18/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
63-55
63
55
+8
A21/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
58-48
58
48
+10
H22/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
57-58
57
58
-1
H24/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H26/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
W
55-36
55
36
+19
A28/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
67-56
67
56
+11
A31/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
62-52
62
52
+10
H01/04
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
W
57-50
57
50
+7
A03/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
65-57
65
57
+8
A05/04
NBA
112.0Avg total
61.3Scored
50.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.754.0112.8+4.760%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.853.5111.3+4.353%-
Last 30 away (15)59.754.6114.3+5.167%-
Last 10 (10)61.350.7112.0+10.690%-
Last 5 (5)61.250.2111.4+11.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (8)58.154.8112.9+3.462%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)59.053.8112.7+5.259%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
62-47
62
47
+15
A21/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A23/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
L
52-53
52
53
-1
A23/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H26/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
49-59
49
59
-10
H28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
L
55-61
55
61
-6
A30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
47-61
47
61
-14
A01/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
49-53
49
53
-4
H03/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
69-61
69
61
+8
A06/04
NBA
109.8Avg total
54.3Scored
55.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.454.4109.8+1.047%-
Last 30 at home (15)54.753.6108.3+1.147%-
Last 30 away (15)56.155.1111.3+1.047%-
Last 10 (10)54.355.5109.8-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)53.859.0112.8-5.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)61.556.8118.3+4.767%-
vs Similar (20)52.953.0105.8-0.145%-
vs Weaker (4)59.057.8116.8+1.225%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 115.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.9 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.727.5
53.2%
51.7%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.115.3
44.9%
35.4%45.9
🏀 Free throws18.214.8
81.3%
76.6%14.8
They take 85.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 103.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.929.0
52.8%
51.7%58.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.210.6
31.0%
35.4%31.8
🏀 Free throws19.114.0
73.3%
76.6%14.0
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Apr 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
LWWWWWLLWW
Miami Heat
LLLWWLWLWW
#2
League position
#17
+10.5
Net rating
-2.4
115.7
Offensive rating
103.8
105.2
Defensive rating
106.2
58.8%
Effective FG%
50.4%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
13.0%
Turnover %
12.5%
16.7%
Off. rebound %
21.6%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.21
44.9%
3-point %
31.0%
68.2%
Assist %
63.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 103.8Defence105.2 · 106.2Shooting58.8% · 50.4%3-point %44.9% · 31.0%Ball care13.0% · 12.5%Off. rebounds16.7% · 21.6%Free throws0.21 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Toronto Raptors wins
3
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/19ACharlotte Hornets111-113
03/04/19ABrooklyn Nets115-105
01/04/19HOrlando Magic121-109
31/03/19AChicago Bulls124-101
28/03/19ANew York Knicks117-92
26/03/19HChicago Bulls112-103
24/03/19HCharlotte Hornets114-115
22/03/19HOklahoma City Thunder109-116
21/03/19AOklahoma City Thunder123-114 OT
18/03/19HNew York Knicks128-92
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/04/19AMinnesota Timberwolves109-111
03/04/19HBoston Celtics102-112
01/04/19ABoston Celtics105-110
30/03/19ANew York Knicks100-92
28/03/19HDallas Mavericks105-99
26/03/19HOrlando Magic99-104
23/03/19AWashington Wizards113-108
23/03/19AMilwaukee Bucks87-116
21/03/19ASan Antonio Spurs110-105
19/03/19AOklahoma City Thunder116-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL70%
HomeWLLWW79%
AwayWWWWL62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844242
Win %70%79%62%
Points / game114.4115.3113.5
Allowed / game108.3107.1109.5
Point differential+6.1+8.3+4.0
Avg total222.7222.4223.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%48%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (23)64% (11)50% (12)
Overtime %7%2%12%
Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL48%
HomeLWLWL49%
AwayLWWLL48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games854342
Win %48%49%48%
Points / game106.1106.4105.8
Allowed / game106.3106.2106.4
Point differential-0.2+0.1-0.5
Avg total212.4212.6212.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%19%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (28)54% (13)33% (15)
Overtime %1%0%2%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks84622274%118.5109.0+9.5
2 Toronto Raptors84592570%114.4108.3+6.1
3 Denver Nuggets83562767%110.8106.5+4.3
4 Golden State Warriors84562867%117.2111.3+6.0
5 Houston Rockets84552965%113.6108.9+4.7
6 Utah Jazz82523063%111.7105.6+6.0
7 Portland Trail Blazers84533163%114.4110.2+4.3
8 Philadelphia 76ers83523163%115.3112.5+2.9
9 Los Angeles Clippers83503360%114.9113.2+1.7
10 Oklahoma City Thunder83493459%113.9110.4+3.5
11 Boston Celtics84493558%111.9107.8+4.1
12 Indiana Pacers84493558%107.6104.2+3.4
13 San Antonio Spurs85493658%111.5110.0+1.6
14 Brooklyn Nets84424250%111.9112.6-0.7
15 Orlando Magic84414349%106.5106.1+0.4
16 Detroit Pistons84414349%107.1107.6-0.5
17 Charlotte Hornets84414349%110.8112.0-1.2
18 Miami Heat85414448%106.1106.3-0.2
19 Sacramento Kings85404547%113.3115.2-1.8
20 Los Angeles Lakers86394745%111.9113.7-1.7
21 Minnesota Timberwolves84374744%112.5114.5-2.0
22 Washington Wizards84354942%114.1116.6-2.5
23 Memphis Grizzlies84345040%103.2106.2-3.0
24 Dallas Mavericks82325039%108.9110.3-1.4
25 New Orleans Pelicans85325338%115.2117.2-1.9
26 Atlanta Hawks85315436%113.1119.0-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls85246128%105.0113.0-8.0
28 Cleveland Cavaliers84216325%104.8113.8-8.9
29 Phoenix Suns84206424%107.0116.2-9.2
30 New York Knicks84186621%105.0113.9-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Toronto Raptors2525282514117
Miami Heat263122246109
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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