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Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 07 Apr 2017
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 96-94
26-19 27-24 17-22 26-29
Position#7
Record48-31
FormLWWLW
Points / game107.1
Allowed / game103.1
vs
Position#13
Record38-40
FormWWLLW
Points / game102.9
Allowed / game101.9
USANBA· Air Canada Centre
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat
15 Jan 2027
TOR v MIA
upcoming
09 Apr 2026
TOR128
MIA114
07 Apr 2026
TOR121
MIA95
21 Feb 2025
TOR111
MIA120
01 Dec 2024
TOR119
MIA116
17 Jan 2024
TOR121
MIA97
06 Dec 2023
TOR103
MIA112
28 Mar 2023
TOR106
MIA92
16 Nov 2022
TOR112
MIA104
03 Apr 2022
TOR109
MIA114
01 Feb 2022
TOR110
MIA106
22 Jan 2021
TOR101
MIA81
20 Jan 2021
TOR102
MIA111
18 Dec 2020
TOR105
MIA117
03 Dec 2019
TOR110
MIA121
07 Apr 2019
TOR117
MIA109
25 Nov 2018
TOR125
MIA115
13 Feb 2018
TOR115
MIA112
09 Jan 2018
TOR89
MIA90
07 Apr 2017
TOR96
MIA94
04 Nov 2016
TOR96
MIA87
15 May 2016
TOR116
MIA89
11 May 2016
TOR99
MIA91
05 May 2016
TOR96
MIA92
03 May 2016
TOR96
MIA102
12 Mar 2016
TOR112
MIA104
22 Jan 2016
TOR101
MIA81
13 Mar 2015
TOR102
MIA92
29 Nov 2013
TOR83
MIA90
05 Nov 2013
TOR95
MIA104
17 Mar 2013
TOR91
MIA108
03 Feb 2013
TOR85
MIA100
30 Mar 2012
TOR101
MIA113
13 Apr 2011
TOR79
MIA97
16 Feb 2011
TOR95
MIA103
27 Jan 2010
TOR111
MIA103
20 Nov 2009
TOR120
MIA113
06 Mar 2009
TOR102
MIA108
16 Nov 2008
TOR107
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
116-91
116
91
+25
112avg 92
H19/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
W
122-120 OT
122
120
+2
109avg 92
H21/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
W
101-84
101
84
+17
89avg 92
A23/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
94-86
94
86
+8
90avg 92
A26/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
131-112
131
112
+19
126avg 92
H27/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
106-110
106
110
-4
99avg 92
H29/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
111-100
111
100
+11
106avg 92
H31/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
W
113-105
113
105
+8
106avg 92
H02/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
L
90-108
90
108
-18
77avg 92
A04/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
105-102
105
102
+3
98avg 92
A05/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-24
30-21
29-28
25-18
27-31
27-28
25-35
34-19
23-33
22-14
30-21
26-16
30-22
24-22
20-20
20-22
35-34
38-23
26-32
32-23
19-22
28-28
27-16
32-44
28-25
18-23
34-20
31-32
28-29
31-20
27-27
27-29
26-18
25-22
24-37
15-31
15-33
31-23
22-24
37-22
210.7Avg total
108.9Scored
101.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (79)107.1103.1210.1+4.061%
Season at home (40)111.3103.4214.7+7.968%
Season away (39)102.7102.7205.5+0.054%
Last 10 (10)108.9101.8210.7+7.180%
Last 5 (5)105.0105.0210.0+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)103.4103.6206.9-0.250%
vs Weaker (14)102.497.0199.4+5.471%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
W
123-105
123
105
+18
122avg 92
H18/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
104-115
104
115
-11
88avg 92
H19/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
112-97
112
97
+15
96avg 92
H21/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
L
84-101
84
101
-17
68avg 92
H23/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
108-112
108
112
-4
92avg 92
A26/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
97-96
97
96
+1
88avg 92
A28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
W
105-88
105
88
+17
93avg 92
A29/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
L
94-98
94
98
-4
79avg 92
H01/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#17
L
113-116
113
116
-3
106avg 92
H02/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
112-99
112
99
+13
105avg 92
A05/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
37-26
26-32
33-24
29-28
22-24
28-33
25-30
23-26
36-20
25-17
28-34
33-23
14-22
21-30
16-26
27-22
31-31
17-32
33-27
24-24
31-26
23-19
19-27
24-22
25-19
28-27
28-20
29-33
26-26
20-18
19-21
30-37
28-31
29-25
26-23
27-23
25-28
34-22
26-26
207.9Avg total
105.2Scored
102.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (78)102.9101.9204.8+1.049%
Season at home (39)105.9102.1208.0+3.954%
Season away (39)99.9101.8201.7-1.944%
Last 10 (10)105.2102.7207.9+2.550%
Last 5 (5)104.299.4203.6+4.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)117.0109.0226.0+8.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (19)107.6100.7208.3+6.968%
vs Weaker (10)108.8102.1210.9+6.760%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: -0.5-0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: +2.2+2.2Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: -0.5-0.5
Toronto RaptorsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
62-45
62
45
+17
H19/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#15
L
54-59
54
59
-5
H21/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A23/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A26/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
73-57
73
57
+16
H27/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H29/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H31/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H02/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#16
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A04/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
46-56
46
56
-10
A05/04
NBA
103.2Avg total
53.7Scored
49.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.250.7101.9+0.453%-
Last 30 at home (14)53.451.9105.4+1.557%-
Last 30 away (16)49.249.798.9-0.550%-
Last 10 (10)53.749.5103.2+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)49.848.698.4+1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)50.252.4102.7-2.238%-
vs Weaker (14)52.248.8101.0+3.471%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#24
W
64-49
64
49
+15
H18/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H19/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H21/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
W
47-45
47
45
+2
H23/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
58-53
58
53
+5
A26/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A29/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H01/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#17
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H02/04
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
52-51
52
51
+1
A05/04
NBA
106.2Avg total
54.8Scored
51.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.851.7108.5+5.163%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.851.6109.4+6.162%-
Last 30 away (14)55.751.7107.4+4.064%-
Last 10 (10)54.851.4106.2+3.470%-
Last 5 (5)53.853.8107.6+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)58.045.0103.0+13.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)57.551.8109.3+5.768%-
vs Weaker (10)55.452.1107.5+3.350%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 108.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.0 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.332.0
53.1%
50.2%64.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.99.1
38.1%
35.7%27.3
🏀 Free throws23.117.6
76.2%
77.0%17.6
They take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 105.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.6 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.829.8
51.6%
50.2%59.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.110.0
35.6%
35.7%30.0
🏀 Free throws21.215.6
73.6%
77.0%15.6
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Apr 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
WLWWLWWWWW
Miami Heat
WLLWWLLWLW
#7
League position
#13
+7.3
Net rating
+2.6
112.1
Offensive rating
109.5
104.8
Defensive rating
106.9
54.2%
Effective FG%
52.2%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
14.8%
Turnover %
12.5%
28.9%
Off. rebound %
25.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.25
38.1%
3-point %
35.6%
51.1%
Assist %
51.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence112.1 · 109.5Defence104.8 · 106.9Shooting54.2% · 52.2%3-point %38.1% · 35.6%Ball care14.8% · 12.5%Off. rebounds28.9% · 25.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Toronto Raptors wins
4
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/17ADetroit Pistons105-102
04/04/17AIndiana Pacers90-108
02/04/17HPhiladelphia 76ers113-105
31/03/17HIndiana Pacers111-100
29/03/17HCharlotte Hornets106-110
27/03/17HOrlando Magic131-112
26/03/17ADallas Mavericks94-86
23/03/17AMiami Heat101-84
21/03/17HChicago Bulls122-120 OT
19/03/17HIndiana Pacers116-91
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/04/17ACharlotte Hornets112-99
02/04/17HDenver Nuggets113-116
01/04/17HNew York Knicks94-98
29/03/17ANew York Knicks105-88
28/03/17ADetroit Pistons97-96
26/03/17ABoston Celtics108-112
23/03/17HToronto Raptors84-101
21/03/17HPhoenix Suns112-97
19/03/17HPortland Trail Blazers104-115
18/03/17HMinnesota Timberwolves123-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW61%
HomeWWLWW68%
AwayWWWLW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games794039
Win %61%68%54%
Points / game107.1111.3102.7
Allowed / game103.1103.4102.7
Point differential+4.0+7.8+0.0
Avg total210.1214.7205.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%42%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (24)33% (12)42% (12)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW49%
HomeLWLLL54%
AwayLLWWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games783939
Win %49%54%44%
Points / game102.9105.999.9
Allowed / game101.9102.1101.8
Point differential+1.0+3.9-1.9
Avg total204.8208.0201.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%33%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (20)25% (8)50% (12)
Overtime %3%5%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors79651482%116.1104.4+11.7
2 San Antonio Spurs78601877%105.898.2+7.6
3 Houston Rockets78532568%115.3109.0+6.3
4 Cleveland Cavaliers78512765%110.5106.7+3.8
5 Boston Celtics79502963%107.7105.4+2.3
6 Utah Jazz78483062%100.696.5+4.1
7 Toronto Raptors79483161%107.1103.1+4.0
8 Los Angeles Clippers79483161%108.5104.8+3.7
9 Washington Wizards79483161%109.4107.4+2.0
10 Oklahoma City Thunder78453358%106.8105.7+1.1
11 Memphis Grizzlies79423753%100.7100.1+0.6
12 Atlanta Hawks78403851%102.9104.2-1.2
13 Milwaukee Bucks79403951%104.1104.3-0.2
14 Chicago Bulls79394049%102.5103.1-0.6
15 Portland Trail Blazers79394049%108.2108.9-0.7
16 Indiana Pacers79394049%104.6105.4-0.8
17 Miami Heat78384049%102.9101.9+1.0
18 Denver Nuggets78374147%111.7111.7+0.0
19 Charlotte Hornets79364346%105.5104.7+0.8
20 Detroit Pistons78354345%101.1102.4-1.3
21 New Orleans Pelicans78334542%104.5106.1-1.6
22 Dallas Mavericks78324641%97.9100.5-2.6
23 Minnesota Timberwolves78314740%105.4106.3-1.0
24 Sacramento Kings78314740%102.4106.4-4.0
25 New York Knicks79304938%104.5108.0-3.5
26 Philadelphia 76ers79285135%102.5108.1-5.7
27 Orlando Magic79285135%101.1107.2-6.1
28 Los Angeles Lakers78235529%104.7111.9-7.3
29 Phoenix Suns79225728%107.4113.3-6.0
30 Brooklyn Nets79196024%106.2112.6-6.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Toronto Raptors2627172696
Miami Heat1924222994
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