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Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 13 Mar 2016
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 112-104 (OT)
28-24 25-22 17-25 27-26 15-7
Position#5
Record43-20
FormWWLWW
Points / game102.7
Allowed / game98.3
vs
Position#8
Record38-27
FormWWWLW
Points / game98.4
Allowed / game97.2
USANBA
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Toronto Raptors v Miami Heat
15 Jan 2027
TOR v MIA
upcoming
09 Apr 2026
TOR128
MIA114
07 Apr 2026
TOR121
MIA95
21 Feb 2025
TOR111
MIA120
01 Dec 2024
TOR119
MIA116
17 Jan 2024
TOR121
MIA97
06 Dec 2023
TOR103
MIA112
28 Mar 2023
TOR106
MIA92
16 Nov 2022
TOR112
MIA104
03 Apr 2022
TOR109
MIA114
01 Feb 2022
TOR110
MIA106
22 Jan 2021
TOR101
MIA81
20 Jan 2021
TOR102
MIA111
18 Dec 2020
TOR105
MIA117
03 Dec 2019
TOR110
MIA121
07 Apr 2019
TOR117
MIA109
25 Nov 2018
TOR125
MIA115
13 Feb 2018
TOR115
MIA112
09 Jan 2018
TOR89
MIA90
07 Apr 2017
TOR96
MIA94
04 Nov 2016
TOR96
MIA87
15 May 2016
TOR116
MIA89
11 May 2016
TOR99
MIA91
05 May 2016
TOR96
MIA92
03 May 2016
TOR96
MIA102
12 Mar 2016
TOR112
MIA104
22 Jan 2016
TOR101
MIA81
13 Mar 2015
TOR102
MIA92
29 Nov 2013
TOR83
MIA90
05 Nov 2013
TOR95
MIA104
17 Mar 2013
TOR91
MIA108
03 Feb 2013
TOR85
MIA100
30 Mar 2012
TOR101
MIA113
13 Apr 2011
TOR79
MIA97
16 Feb 2011
TOR95
MIA103
27 Jan 2010
TOR111
MIA103
20 Nov 2009
TOR120
MIA113
06 Mar 2009
TOR102
MIA108
16 Nov 2008
TOR107
MIA96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toronto Raptors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
98-85
98
85
+13
84avg 92
H21/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
122-95
122
95
+27
119avg 92
A23/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#26
W
114-105
114
105
+9
104avg 92
H25/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#3
W
99-97
99
97
+2
90avg 92
H27/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
L
101-114
101
114
-13
89avg 92
A28/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
W
104-94
104
94
+10
94avg 92
H03/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
117-115
117
115
+2
107avg 92
H05/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
107-113
107
113
-6
105avg 92
H06/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
104-99
104
99
+5
99avg 92
H09/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
104-96
104
96
+8
94avg 92
H11/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-20
24-23
28-21
24-21
26-28
31-15
29-25
36-27
37-28
24-30
26-28
27-19
21-31
24-18
23-28
31-20
25-23
27-29
20-37
29-25
24-26
28-23
33-25
19-20
31-30
27-22
32-25
27-38
30-26
31-25
24-26
22-36
28-23
14-35
36-22
26-19
20-21
32-27
30-27
22-21
208.3Avg total
107.0Scored
101.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)102.798.3201.0+4.468%
Season at home (32)104.497.8202.1+6.678%
Season away (31)101.098.9199.9+2.158%
Last 10 (10)107.0101.3208.3+5.780%
Last 5 (5)107.2103.4210.6+3.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)105.7100.3206.0+5.481%
vs Weaker (14)106.1100.4206.6+5.771%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
101-93 OT
101
93
+8
88avg 91
H23/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
112-118
112
118
-6
102avg 91
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
L
89-101
89
101
-12
80avg 91
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
98-81
98
81
+17
98avg 91
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
129-111
129
111
+18
132avg 91
H02/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
108-92
108
92
+16
105avg 91
H04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
112-102
112
102
+10
108avg 91
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
103-98
103
98
+5
95avg 91
H06/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#23
L
108-114
108
114
-6
104avg 91
A10/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
118-96
118
96
+22
113avg 91
A12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-25
26-19
29-25
18-19
30-21
25-30
28-29
29-38
26-18
23-28
21-26
19-29
23-19
21-20
25-26
29-16
36-30
29-32
30-20
34-29
29-21
28-22
27-25
24-24
40-29
19-20
25-28
28-25
30-25
17-24
22-20
34-29
22-29
32-28
31-23
23-34
23-31
31-27
30-23
34-15
208.4Avg total
107.8Scored
100.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)98.497.2195.6+1.258%
Season at home (33)100.997.1198.0+3.864%
Season away (32)95.897.3193.1-1.553%
Last 10 (10)107.8100.6208.4+7.270%
Last 5 (5)109.8100.4210.2+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)97.5111.8209.2-14.20%
vs Similar ◀ (16)99.299.1198.3+0.156%
vs Weaker (10)101.896.9198.7+4.980%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: +1.4+1.4
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +2.6+2.6Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: +1.4+1.4
Toronto RaptorsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H21/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
57-43
57
43
+14
A23/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#26
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H25/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#3
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H27/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
D
52-52
52
52
+0
A28/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H03/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H05/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H06/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
42-58
42
58
-16
H09/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
52-48
52
48
+4
H11/03
NBA
102.9Avg total
52.6Scored
50.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.449.8104.3+4.673%-
Last 30 at home (17)54.350.3104.6+4.076%-
Last 30 away (13)54.649.2103.8+5.469%-
Last 10 (10)52.650.3102.9+2.370%-
Last 5 (5)53.051.6104.6+1.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)54.550.4104.9+4.162%-
vs Weaker (14)54.449.1103.5+5.286%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H23/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
65-62
65
62
+3
H02/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H06/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#23
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A10/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
54-58
54
58
-4
A12/03
NBA
102.3Avg total
52.5Scored
49.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.849.599.3+0.347%-
Last 30 at home (10)50.247.697.8+2.650%-
Last 30 away (20)49.650.5100.1-0.845%-
Last 10 (10)52.549.8102.3+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)54.251.2105.4+3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)49.551.2100.8-1.825%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)49.549.298.7+0.350%-
vs Weaker (10)50.549.399.8+1.250%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 107.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.929.7
53.1%
49.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.18.5
36.8%
35.3%25.5
🏀 Free throws28.222.1
78.4%
75.5%22.1
They take 79.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀66%
🏀🏀🏀15%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers71.2 pts a game · 66% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers71.735.6
49.7%
49.0%71.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers14.05.4
38.6%
35.3%16.2
🏀 Free throws26.420.4
77.3%
75.5%20.4
They take 85.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 14.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 16% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Mar 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Toronto Raptors
WWLWWLWWWW
Miami Heat
WLWWWWWLLW
#5
League position
#8
+6.1
Net rating
+7.2
115.3
Offensive rating
108.2
109.1
Defensive rating
101.0
53.7%
Effective FG%
51.0%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
47.2%
12.1%
Turnover %
13.8%
26.1%
Off. rebound %
28.0%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.31
36.8%
3-point %
38.6%
49.5%
Assist %
55.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence115.3 · 108.2Defence109.1 · 101.0Shooting53.7% · 51.0%3-point %36.8% · 38.6%Ball care12.1% · 13.8%Off. rebounds26.1% · 28.0%Free throws0.36 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Toronto Raptors   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Toronto Raptors wins
6
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/16HAtlanta Hawks104-96
09/03/16HBrooklyn Nets104-99
06/03/16HHouston Rockets107-113
05/03/16HPortland Trail Blazers117-115
03/03/16HUtah Jazz104-94
28/02/16ADetroit Pistons101-114
27/02/16HCleveland Cavaliers99-97
25/02/16HMinnesota Timberwolves114-105
23/02/16ANew York Knicks122-95
21/02/16HMemphis Grizzlies98-85
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/16AChicago Bulls118-96
10/03/16AMilwaukee Bucks108-114
06/03/16HPhiladelphia 76ers103-98
05/03/16APhiladelphia 76ers112-102
04/03/16HPhoenix Suns108-92
02/03/16HChicago Bulls129-111
29/02/16ANew York Knicks98-81
27/02/16ABoston Celtics89-101
25/02/16HGolden State Warriors112-118
23/02/16HIndiana Pacers101-93 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toronto Raptors
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW68%
HomeWWLWW78%
AwayWLLWL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633231
Win %68%78%58%
Points / game102.7104.4101.0
Allowed / game98.397.898.9
Point differential+4.4+6.6+2.1
Avg total201.0202.1199.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%34%39%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (20)62% (13)43% (7)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW58%
HomeWLWWW64%
AwayLWWLW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653332
Win %58%64%53%
Points / game98.4100.995.8
Allowed / game97.297.197.3
Point differential+1.2+3.8-1.5
Avg total195.6198.0193.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%33%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won87% (15)86% (7)88% (8)
Overtime %6%9%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors6458691%115.3104.4+11.0
2 San Antonio Spurs65551085%104.792.4+12.3
3 Cleveland Cavaliers64461872%103.897.6+6.2
4 Toronto Raptors63432068%102.798.3+4.4
5 Oklahoma City Thunder65442168%109.9103.2+6.7
6 Los Angeles Clippers64422266%104.9100.4+4.5
7 Memphis Grizzlies65392660%99.5100.0-0.5
8 Boston Celtics66392759%106.1101.9+4.2
9 Miami Heat65382758%98.497.2+1.2
10 Charlotte Hornets64362856%102.9100.7+2.2
11 Atlanta Hawks65362955%102.199.2+2.9
12 Indiana Pacers65353054%102.3100.5+1.8
13 Portland Trail Blazers66343252%103.9103.3+0.6
14 Detroit Pistons65333251%101.7100.7+0.9
15 Houston Rockets65333251%105.7106.8-1.0
16 Dallas Mavericks66333350%102.4102.9-0.5
17 Chicago Bulls64323250%101.5102.9-1.4
18 Washington Wizards64303447%102.6104.7-2.1
19 Utah Jazz65303546%97.997.3+0.6
20 Orlando Magic64283644%100.9102.5-1.6
21 Denver Nuggets65273842%101.9104.2-2.3
22 Milwaukee Bucks65273842%99.4103.3-3.9
23 New York Knicks67274040%99.3101.6-2.3
24 Sacramento Kings64253939%106.8109.5-2.7
25 New Orleans Pelicans64244038%102.9106.0-3.1
26 Minnesota Timberwolves66214532%101.3105.5-4.2
27 Brooklyn Nets65184728%97.6104.2-6.6
28 Phoenix Suns65174826%100.5107.8-7.4
29 Los Angeles Lakers66145221%98.0107.1-9.1
30 Philadelphia 76ers6595614%96.6107.0-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Toronto Raptors2825172715112
Miami Heat242225267104
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