PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 125-128
34-33 33-33 26-34 32-28
Position#26
Record18-42
FormLLLLL
Points / game117.8
Allowed / game125.7
vs
Position#6
Record37-24
FormWLWLL
Points / game120.3
Allowed / game116.0
USANBA· Delta Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets
12 Dec 2026
UTA v DEN
upcoming
27 Nov 2026
UTA v DEN
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
UTA117
DEN130
02 Mar 2026
UTA125
DEN128
30 Dec 2024
UTA121
DEN132
27 Nov 2024
UTA103
DEN122
09 Apr 2024
UTA95
DEN111
10 Jan 2024
UTA124
DEN111
08 Apr 2023
UTA118
DEN114
19 Oct 2022
UTA123
DEN102
02 Feb 2022
UTA108
DEN104
26 Oct 2021
UTA122
DEN110
07 May 2021
UTA127
DEN120
30 Aug 2020
UTA107
DEN119
23 Aug 2020
UTA129
DEN127
21 Aug 2020
UTA124
DEN87
14 Apr 2020
UTA v DEN
upcoming
05 Feb 2020
UTA95
DEN98
09 Apr 2019
UTA118
DEN108
23 Jan 2019
UTA114
DEN108
28 Nov 2017
UTA106
DEN77
18 Oct 2017
UTA106
DEN96
03 Dec 2016
UTA105
DEN98
23 Nov 2016
UTA108
DEN83
03 Feb 2016
UTA85
DEN81
18 Dec 2015
UTA97
DEN88
01 Apr 2015
UTA98
DEN84
01 Dec 2014
UTA101
DEN103
13 Jan 2014
UTA118
DEN103
11 Nov 2013
UTA81
DEN100
03 Apr 2013
UTA96
DEN113
26 Nov 2012
UTA105
DEN103
23 Mar 2012
UTA121
DEN102
13 Apr 2011
UTA107
DEN103
03 Mar 2011
UTA101
DEN103
30 Apr 2010
UTA112
DEN104
25 Apr 2010
UTA117
DEN106
23 Apr 2010
UTA105
DEN93
06 Feb 2010
UTA116
DEN106
02 Jan 2010
UTA95
DEN105
06 Mar 2009
UTA97
DEN91
29 Oct 2008
UTA98
DEN94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Utah Jazz winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Utah JazzUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJazz
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
131-122
131
122
+9
132avg 107
A04/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
119-121
119
121
-2
102avg 107
A06/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
117-120
117
120
-3
117avg 107
A08/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
115-111
115
111
+4
114avg 107
A10/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
121-93
121
93
+28
129avg 107
H12/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
119-135
119
135
-16
110avg 107
H13/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
114-123
114
123
-9
109avg 107
A21/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
105-125
105
125
-20
83avg 107
A24/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
118-129
118
129
-11
108avg 107
H27/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
105-115
105
115
-10
85avg 107
H01/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-32
31-24
40-33
35-33
31-30
29-31
36-31
23-29
30-33
35-21
29-33
23-33
26-32
35-20
24-30
30-29
39-20
32-24
29-22
21-27
31-28
32-33
23-40
33-34
32-28
35-27
21-32
26-36
22-38
25-30
28-32
30-25
38-37
23-41
27-25
30-26
22-27
18-38
33-24
32-26
235.8Avg total
116.4Scored
119.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)117.8125.7243.5-8.030%
Season at home (31)121.0127.6248.6-6.635%
Season away (29)114.3123.8238.0-9.524%
Last 10 (10)116.4119.4235.8-3.030%
Last 5 (5)112.2125.4237.6-13.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)114.2125.2239.4-11.020%
vs Similar (10)117.2121.5238.7-4.330%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
127-134 OT
127
134
-7
116avg 112
A05/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
136-120
136
120
+16
138avg 112
A08/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
117-119
117
119
-2
110avg 112
H10/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
122-116
122
116
+6
123avg 112
H12/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
114-115
114
115
-1
109avg 112
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
157-103
157
103
+54
168avg 112
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
117-128
117
128
-11
108avg 112
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
103-84
103
84
+19
97avg 112
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
121-127 OT
121
127
-6
108avg 112
A28/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
108-117
108
117
-9
99avg 112
H01/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-28
23-27
29-33
26-20
39-36
20-29
38-39
39-16
30-26
29-28
33-33
25-32
30-28
30-26
33-27
29-35
24-25
28-20
25-33
37-37
41-27
41-26
43-32
32-18
27-39
40-37
34-19
16-33
21-24
26-24
30-19
26-17
33-19
26-31
24-27
24-30
31-22
19-36
32-32
26-27
238.5Avg total
122.2Scored
116.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (61)120.3116.0236.3+4.461%
Season at home (28)117.8114.4232.2+3.457%
Season away (33)122.5117.2239.7+5.264%
Last 10 (10)122.2116.3238.5+5.940%
Last 5 (5)121.2111.8233.0+9.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)116.0124.0240.0-8.00%
vs Similar (15)110.1114.6224.7-4.527%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)119.8112.5232.2+7.385%
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +1.5+1.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: +1.5+1.5
Utah JazzDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Utah JazzLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
D
56-56
56
56
+0
A04/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
60-61
60
61
-1
A06/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
65-54
65
54
+11
A08/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
61-52
61
52
+9
A10/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
71-44
71
44
+27
H12/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H13/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
67-55
67
55
+12
A21/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
47-68
47
68
-21
A24/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
61-78
61
78
-17
H27/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
40-65
40
65
-25
H01/03
NBA
118.5Avg total
59.1Scored
59.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.061.6118.6-4.740%-
Last 30 at home (13)55.462.3117.7-6.946%-
Last 30 away (17)58.261.1119.3-2.935%-
Last 10 (10)59.159.4118.5-0.350%-
Last 5 (5)55.665.4121.0-9.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)56.661.5118.2-4.945%-
vs Similar (10)57.661.9119.5-4.330%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
53-55
53
55
-2
A05/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A08/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H10/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H12/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
82-53
82
53
+29
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
67-76
67
76
-9
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A28/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H01/03
NBA
114.6Avg total
58.8Scored
55.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.156.1113.2+1.043%-
Last 30 at home (13)55.355.2110.5+0.246%-
Last 30 away (17)58.556.8115.3+1.641%-
Last 10 (10)58.855.8114.6+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)61.057.0118.0+4.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)57.056.0113.0+1.050%-
vs Similar (15)54.356.2110.5-1.933%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)60.456.0116.4+4.454%-
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Utah Jazztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Utah Jazz: 116.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.431.0
55.0%
54.8%62.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.911.9
33.1%
35.8%35.7
🏀 Free throws24.618.7
76.0%
78.1%18.7
They take 92.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 122.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.030.2
55.9%
54.8%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.013.3
35.9%
35.8%39.9
🏀 Free throws28.621.9
76.6%
78.1%21.9
They take 91.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Utah Jazz
LLLLLWWLLW
Denver Nuggets
LLWLWLWLWL
#26
League position
#6
-2.8
Net rating
+5.6
109.5
Offensive rating
115.7
112.3
Defensive rating
110.1
52.9%
Effective FG%
55.1%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
14.1%
Turnover %
13.3%
31.2%
Off. rebound %
27.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.31
33.1%
3-point %
35.9%
65.5%
Assist %
66.9%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence109.5 · 115.7Defence112.3 · 110.1Shooting52.9% · 55.1%3-point %33.1% · 35.9%Ball care14.1% · 13.3%Off. rebounds31.2% · 27.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Utah Jazz   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Utah Jazz wins
8
Denver Nuggets wins
Utah Jazzlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HNew Orleans Pelicans105-115
27/02/26HNew Orleans Pelicans118-129
24/02/26AHouston Rockets105-125
21/02/26AMemphis Grizzlies114-123
13/02/26HPortland Trail Blazers119-135
12/02/26HSacramento Kings121-93
10/02/26AMiami Heat115-111
08/02/26AOrlando Magic117-120
06/02/26AAtlanta Hawks119-121
04/02/26AIndiana Pacers131-122
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HMinnesota Timberwolves108-117
28/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder121-127 OT
26/02/26HBoston Celtics103-84
22/02/26AGolden State Warriors117-128
21/02/26APortland Trail Blazers157-103
20/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers114-115
12/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies122-116
10/02/26HCleveland Cavaliers117-119
08/02/26AChicago Bulls136-120
05/02/26ANew York Knicks127-134 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Utah Jazz
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL30%
HomeLWLLL35%
AwayLLWLL24%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games603129
Win %30%35%24%
Points / game117.8121.0114.3
Allowed / game125.7127.6123.8
Point differential-8.0-6.6-9.5
Avg total243.5248.6238.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%10%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)62% (8)38% (8)
Overtime %8%13%3%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL61%
HomeLLWWL57%
AwayWLWLL64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games612833
Win %61%57%64%
Points / game120.3117.8122.5
Allowed / game116.0114.4117.2
Point differential+4.4+3.4+5.2
Avg total236.3232.2239.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%32%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won48% (21)44% (9)50% (12)
Overtime %10%7%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder60461477%119.0108.1+10.9
2 Detroit Pistons59451476%117.3109.4+7.9
3 San Antonio Spurs58411771%117.8111.7+6.1
4 Boston Celtics61412067%114.9107.0+7.9
5 Houston Rockets60382263%114.7109.4+5.3
6 New York Knicks59372263%117.0111.2+5.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves61382362%119.1114.6+4.6
8 Cleveland Cavaliers62382461%119.2115.0+4.2
9 Los Angeles Lakers59362361%115.9115.2+0.7
10 Denver Nuggets61372461%120.3116.0+4.4
11 Toronto Raptors59352459%114.2111.9+2.3
12 Phoenix Suns59342558%112.5110.9+1.6
13 Philadelphia 76ers60332755%116.4115.9+0.5
14 Miami Heat60322853%120.0117.0+3.0
15 Orlando Magic57302753%114.4114.2+0.2
16 Golden State Warriors60312952%115.6114.1+1.5
17 Atlanta Hawks62313150%117.4117.4+0.0
18 Charlotte Hornets61303149%116.0113.0+3.0
19 Los Angeles Clippers59283147%112.1112.3-0.2
20 Portland Trail Blazers62293347%115.2118.4-3.1
21 Milwaukee Bucks60263443%111.3115.5-4.2
22 Chicago Bulls61253641%115.8120.1-4.3
23 Memphis Grizzlies59233639%115.7117.7-2.0
24 Dallas Mavericks60213935%113.9117.7-3.8
25 New Orleans Pelicans62194331%115.1120.4-5.3
26 Utah Jazz60184230%117.8125.7-8.0
27 Washington Wizards60164427%112.3123.0-10.7
28 Brooklyn Nets60154525%107.0115.4-8.5
29 Indiana Pacers61154625%111.4119.6-8.2
30 Sacramento Kings62144823%110.3121.2-10.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Utah Jazz34332632125
Denver Nuggets33333428128
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.