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Bilbao vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 02 May 2027
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#8
Record4-3
FormWLWLW
Points / game92.0
Allowed / game92.6
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.4/10
Around normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Position#1
Record7-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game106.3
Allowed / game85.3
SpainACBRound 31· Bilbao Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Bilbao v Real Madrid
02 May 2027
BIL v MAD
upcoming
14 May 2026
BIL88
MAD82
13 Oct 2024
BIL83
MAD79
12 Nov 2023
BIL84
MAD87
27 Dec 2022
BIL80
MAD85
13 Apr 2022
BIL79
MAD67
04 Nov 2020
BIL83
MAD85
05 Oct 2017
BIL80
MAD87
11 Dec 2016
BIL77
MAD85
29 Nov 2015
BIL92
MAD99
14 Dec 2014
BIL89
MAD79
23 Mar 2014
BIL73
MAD87
03 Feb 2013
BIL74
MAD94
08 Feb 2012
BIL93
MAD69
13 Oct 2011
BIL86
MAD82
02 Jun 2011
BIL80
MAD72
31 May 2011
BIL68
MAD51
16 Oct 2010
BIL73
MAD75
31 Oct 2009
BIL70
MAD96
28 Feb 2009
BIL88
MAD81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilbao win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BilbaoSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBilbao
Date
Competition
Leyma Coruna
#14
L
101-104 OT
101
104
-3
90avg 82
A04/10
ACB
Igokea
#27
W
92-79
92
79
+13
90avg 82
A06/10
Champions League
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
96-87
96
87
+9
88avg 82
H11/10
ACB
Slavia Prague ERA NBK
#50
W
97-86
97
86
+11
94avg 82
H14/10
Champions League
Real Madrid
#1
L
84-119
84
119
-35
75avg 82
A18/10
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#17
W
88-76
88
76
+12
83avg 82
H25/10
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
L
100-103
100
103
-3
98avg 82
A28/10
Champions League
Joventut Badalona
#13
W
81-78
81
78
+3
74avg 82
A01/11
ACB
Basquet Girona
#10
L
87-92
87
92
-5
no box
A07/11
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
W
83-75
83
75
+8
no box
H10/11
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
27-24
22-23
24-22
28-21
22-14
22-21
20-23
19-20
25-25
30-25
22-17
27-21
15-14
26-26
29-25
13-36
22-26
22-27
27-30
15-22
27-18
23-17
23-19
26-24
22-19
24-31
28-29
27-23
11-21
29-17
14-17
25-19
19-27
23-20
20-26
22-18
23-21
19-14
19-22
180.8Avg total
90.9Scored
89.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)92.092.6184.6-0.657%
Season at home (3)97.085.0182.0+12.0100%
Season away (4)88.298.2186.5-10.025%
Last 10 (10)90.989.9180.8+1.060%
Last 5 (5)87.884.8172.6+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)78.392.9171.1-14.614%
vs Similar (9)89.283.7172.9+5.678%
vs Weaker (14)91.684.4176.1+7.271%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 93
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 93
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 93
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 93
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 93
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 93
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 93
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)106.385.3191.6+21.0100%
Season at home (5)101.680.8182.4+20.8100%
Season away (2)118.096.5214.5+21.5100%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Bilbao) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +5.9+5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +5.9+5.9
BilbaoReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BilbaoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Leyma Coruna
#14
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A04/10
ACB
Igokea
#27
W
50-35
50
35
+15
A06/10
Champions League
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
44-45
44
45
-1
H11/10
ACB
Slavia Prague ERA NBK
#50
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H14/10
Champions League
Real Madrid
#1
L
35-62
35
62
-27
A18/10
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#17
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H25/10
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A28/10
Champions League
Joventut Badalona
#13
L
38-44
38
44
-6
A01/11
ACB
Basquet Girona
#10
L
44-46
44
46
-2
A07/11
ACB
Alba Berlin
#6
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H10/11
Champions League
86.8Avg total
43.3Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.142.384.4-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.640.383.9+3.367%-
Last 30 away (15)40.744.385.0-3.727%-
Last 10 (10)43.343.586.8-0.250%-
Last 5 (5)43.442.485.8+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)35.146.481.6-11.30%-
vs Similar (9)42.641.083.6+1.656%-
vs Weaker (14)45.441.186.4+4.364%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%-
This opponent (Bilbao) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bilbaotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bilbao: 91.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀40%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.218.5
52.6%
55.8%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.111.8
36.8%
36.4%35.4
🏀 Free throws26.619.3
72.6%
76.0%19.3
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.8%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
36.4%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
76.0%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 May 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bilbao
WLWLWLWWWL
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
#8
League position
#1
+0.5
Net rating
+23.0
99.9
Offensive rating
114.6
99.4
Defensive rating
91.6
53.8%
Effective FG%
60.2%
53.7%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
13.6%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.33
36.8%
3-point %
41.9%
66.3%
Assist %
62.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence99.9 · 114.6Defence99.4 · 91.6Shooting53.8% · 60.2%3-point %36.8% · 41.9%Ball care13.6% · 12.7%Free throws0.40 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Bilbao   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Bilbao wins
7
Real Madrid wins
DateGameScore
18/10/26Real Madrid v Bilbao119-84
14/05/26Bilbao v Real Madrid88-82
16/11/25Real Madrid v Bilbao82-70
30/03/25Real Madrid v Bilbao88-70
13/10/24Bilbao v Real Madrid83-79
21/01/24Real Madrid v Bilbao95-80
12/11/23Bilbao v Real Madrid84-87
12/03/23Real Madrid v Bilbao86-65
27/12/22Bilbao v Real Madrid80-85
13/04/22Bilbao v Real Madrid79-67
Bilbaolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HAlba Berlin83-75
07/11/26ABasquet Girona87-92
01/11/26AJoventut Badalona81-78
28/10/26AAlba Berlin100-103
25/10/26HMoraBanc Andorra88-76
18/10/26AReal Madrid84-119
14/10/26HSlavia Prague ERA NBK97-86
11/10/26HSan Pablo Burgos96-87
06/10/26AIgokea92-79
04/10/26ALeyma Coruna101-104 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bilbao
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL57%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %57%100%25%
Points / game92.097.088.2
Allowed / game92.685.098.2
Point differential-0.6+12.0-10.0
Avg total184.6182.0186.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %14%0%25%
Real Madrid
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games752
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game106.3101.6118.0
Allowed / game85.380.896.5
Point differential+21.0+20.8+21.5
Avg total191.6182.4214.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+71%80%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %14%0%50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid770100%106.385.3+21.0
2 Valencia86275%100.689.1+11.5
3 Tenerife86275%87.179.6+7.5
4 Baskonia75271%95.084.3+10.7
5 Barcelona75271%97.394.4+2.9
6 Breogan85362%104.8100.1+4.6
7 Basket Zaragoza85362%92.889.1+3.6
8 Bilbao74357%92.092.6-0.6
9 Unicaja84450%87.984.1+3.8
10 Basquet Girona84450%88.195.4-7.2
11 Murcia73443%90.193.3-3.1
12 Obradoiro CAB73443%90.396.6-6.3
13 Joventut Badalona83538%90.590.4+0.1
14 Leyma Coruna83538%92.5101.2-8.8
15 San Pablo Burgos82625%91.493.0-1.6
16 Manresa82625%88.0101.0-13.0
17 MoraBanc Andorra81712%86.496.5-10.1
18 Forca Lleida81712%92.8104.6-11.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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