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Bilbao vs Real Madrid Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 14 May 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 88-82
24-22 16-22 20-22 28-16
Position#7
Record16-14
FormLLWWL
Points / game84.7
Allowed / game86.4
Bilbao 🏆
Spain
vs
Position#2
Record26-4
FormWWLWL
Points / game94.2
Allowed / game84.9
SpainACBRound 31· Bilbao Arena
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Bilbao v Real Madrid
02 May 2027
BIL v MAD
upcoming
14 May 2026
BIL88
MAD82
13 Oct 2024
BIL83
MAD79
12 Nov 2023
BIL84
MAD87
27 Dec 2022
BIL80
MAD85
13 Apr 2022
BIL79
MAD67
04 Nov 2020
BIL83
MAD85
05 Oct 2017
BIL80
MAD87
11 Dec 2016
BIL77
MAD85
29 Nov 2015
BIL92
MAD99
14 Dec 2014
BIL89
MAD79
23 Mar 2014
BIL73
MAD87
03 Feb 2013
BIL74
MAD94
08 Feb 2012
BIL93
MAD69
13 Oct 2011
BIL86
MAD82
02 Jun 2011
BIL80
MAD72
31 May 2011
BIL68
MAD51
16 Oct 2010
BIL73
MAD75
31 Oct 2009
BIL70
MAD96
28 Feb 2009
BIL88
MAD81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilbao winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BilbaoSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBilbao
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
81-100
81
100
-19
74avg 81
A28/03
ACB
Szombathely
#16
W
98-81
98
81
+17
101avg 81
A01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Unicaja
#9
W
90-74
90
74
+16
86avg 81
H04/04
ACB
Szombathely
#16
W
95-88
95
88
+7
90avg 81
H08/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Barcelona
#5
L
61-90
61
90
-29
49avg 81
A12/04
ACB
Manresa
#10
L
80-84
80
84
-4
71avg 81
H18/04
ACB
PAOK
#5
L
73-79
73
79
-6
57avg 81
A22/04
FIBA Europe Cup
PAOK
#5
W
89-74
89
74
+15
88avg 81
H29/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Granada
#18
W
88-83
88
83
+5
75avg 81
H03/05
ACB
Forca Lleida
#14
L
81-90
81
90
-9
70avg 81
A10/05
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
22-27
16-21
18-30
29-28
27-16
22-16
20-21
26-23
23-19
27-21
14-11
23-17
25-20
21-30
26-21
7-21
16-20
20-24
18-25
17-19
19-20
21-22
23-23
13-16
22-27
18-17
20-19
19-23
24-18
27-16
19-17
16-16
25-30
26-19
21-18
26-25
22-29
19-15
14-21
167.9Avg total
83.6Scored
84.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)84.786.4171.1-1.753%
Season at home (15)86.080.5166.5+5.573%
Season away (15)83.392.3175.6-8.933%
Last 10 (10)83.684.3167.9-0.750%
Last 5 (5)82.282.0164.2+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)75.087.3162.3-12.329%
vs Similar (8)92.988.5181.4+4.462%
vs Weaker (15)88.478.1166.5+10.387%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
94-78
94
78
+16
98avg 86
A12/04
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#9
W
103-82
103
82
+21
106avg 86
H16/04
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
L
90-95
90
95
-5
82avg 86
H19/04
ACB
Valencia
#1
W
96-82
96
82
+14
94avg 86
A25/04
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
86-82
86
82
+4
81avg 86
H29/04
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
102-75
102
75
+27
99avg 86
H01/05
Euroleague
Murcia
#4
W
131-123 OT
131
123
+8
125avg 86
H03/05
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
L
69-76
69
76
-7
60avg 86
A05/05
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
87-81
87
81
+6
91avg 86
A07/05
Euroleague
Breogan
#11
L
97-101
97
101
-4
90avg 86
H10/05
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-20
18-19
23-18
28-21
27-25
29-19
21-19
26-19
21-26
20-19
19-23
30-27
22-19
23-22
30-22
21-19
27-18
21-15
22-22
16-27
24-21
16-21
33-20
29-13
25-29
25-34
31-29
33-22
21-18
15-16
10-21
23-21
23-21
23-15
17-17
24-28
18-15
28-28
21-28
30-30
183.0Avg total
95.5Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)94.284.9179.1+9.387%
Season at home (15)96.085.5181.5+10.580%
Season away (15)92.584.3176.8+8.193%
Last 10 (10)95.587.5183.0+8.070%
Last 5 (5)97.291.2188.4+6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)96.082.0178.0+14.0100%
vs Similar (12)90.584.6175.1+5.967%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)92.284.4176.6+7.876%
This opponent (Bilbao) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +3.3+3.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +0.8+0.8Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: +3.3+3.3
BilbaoReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BilbaoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
47-49
47
49
-2
A28/03
ACB
Szombathely
#16
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A01/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Unicaja
#9
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H04/04
ACB
Szombathely
#16
W
48-37
48
37
+11
H08/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Barcelona
#5
L
23-41
23
41
-18
A12/04
ACB
Manresa
#10
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H18/04
ACB
PAOK
#5
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A22/04
FIBA Europe Cup
PAOK
#5
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H29/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Granada
#18
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H03/05
ACB
Forca Lleida
#14
L
48-54
48
54
-6
A10/05
ACB
86.2Avg total
42.6Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.639.782.3+2.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.836.480.2+7.473%-
Last 30 away (15)41.543.084.5-1.540%-
Last 10 (10)42.643.686.2-1.040%-
Last 5 (5)40.644.685.2-4.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)36.938.675.4-1.743%-
vs Similar (8)44.442.286.6+2.162%-
vs Weaker (15)44.438.983.3+5.560%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A12/04
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#9
W
56-44
56
44
+12
H16/04
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H19/04
ACB
Valencia
#1
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A25/04
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
48-33
48
33
+15
H29/04
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H01/05
Euroleague
Murcia
#4
L
50-63
50
63
-13
H03/05
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A05/05
Euroleague
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A07/05
Euroleague
Breogan
#11
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H10/05
ACB
87.1Avg total
45.1Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.440.285.6+5.180%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.540.386.7+6.273%-
Last 30 away (15)44.340.284.5+4.187%-
Last 10 (10)45.142.087.1+3.170%-
Last 5 (5)43.643.687.2+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)45.041.086.0+4.0100%-
vs Similar (12)45.740.986.6+4.875%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)45.239.784.9+5.582%-
This opponent (Bilbao) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bilbaotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bilbao: 83.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.4 points a game
42%
39%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.819.8
56.9%
50.0%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.88.8
32.8%
42.2%26.4
🏀 Free throws23.817.6
73.9%
74.7%17.6
They take 61.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 78.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.4 points a game
42%
39%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers25.218.0
71.4%
50.0%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.110.1
35.9%
42.2%30.3
🏀 Free throws15.612.1
77.6%
74.7%12.1
They take 53.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bilbao
LWWLLLWWWL
Real Madrid
LWLWWWWLWW
#7
League position
#2
-0.8
Net rating
+4.0
98.6
Offensive rating
69.6
99.5
Defensive rating
65.6
53.6%
Effective FG%
62.2%
53.8%
Opp. effective FG%
55.5%
14.3%
Turnover %
16.6%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.8%
3-point %
35.9%
55.2%
Assist %
72.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence98.6 · 69.6Defence99.5 · 65.6Shooting53.6% · 62.2%3-point %32.8% · 35.9%Ball care14.3% · 16.6%Free throws0.39 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Bilbao   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Bilbao wins
8
Real Madrid wins
DateGameScore
16/11/25Real Madrid v Bilbao82-70
30/03/25Real Madrid v Bilbao88-70
13/10/24Bilbao v Real Madrid83-79
21/01/24Real Madrid v Bilbao95-80
12/11/23Bilbao v Real Madrid84-87
12/03/23Real Madrid v Bilbao86-65
27/12/22Bilbao v Real Madrid80-85
13/04/22Bilbao v Real Madrid79-67
07/11/21Real Madrid v Bilbao95-61
20/05/21Real Madrid v Bilbao70-59
Bilbaolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/26AForca Lleida81-90
03/05/26HGranada88-83
29/04/26HPAOK89-74
22/04/26APAOK73-79
18/04/26HManresa80-84
12/04/26ABarcelona61-90
08/04/26HSzombathely95-88
04/04/26HUnicaja90-74
01/04/26ASzombathely98-81
28/03/26AMurcia81-100
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/26HBreogan97-101
07/05/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv87-81
05/05/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv69-76
03/05/26HMurcia131-123 OT
01/05/26HHapoel Tel-Aviv102-75
29/04/26HHapoel Tel-Aviv86-82
25/04/26AValencia96-82
19/04/26HTenerife90-95
16/04/26HCrvena zvezda103-82
12/04/26ASan Pablo Burgos94-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bilbao
ACB 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL53%
HomeLWWLW73%
AwayLWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %53%73%33%
Points / game84.786.083.3
Allowed / game86.480.592.3
Point differential-1.7+5.5-8.9
Avg total171.1166.5175.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%53%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (11)50% (4)71% (7)
Overtime %10%0%20%
Real Madrid
ACB 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL87%
HomeWWLWL80%
AwayWWWWW93%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %87%80%93%
Points / game94.296.092.5
Allowed / game84.985.584.3
Point differential+9.3+10.5+8.1
Avg total179.1181.5176.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%60%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)0% (3)86% (7)
Overtime %3%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid3026487%94.284.9+9.3
2 Murcia3022873%91.084.5+6.5
3 Barcelona3122971%89.381.3+7.9
4 Valencia3021970%94.283.4+10.8
5 Baskonia3021970%93.087.1+5.9
6 Joventut Badalona28171161%84.281.2+3.0
7 Tenerife29171259%88.784.6+4.1
8 Unicaja29161355%88.186.3+1.8
9 Bilbao30161453%84.786.4-1.7
10 Breogan31141745%91.093.5-2.5
11 Basquet Girona31131842%86.389.2-2.9
12 Manresa31131842%85.591.3-5.8
13 Forca Lleida31112035%83.890.1-6.3
14 San Pablo Burgos3092130%89.392.9-3.7
15 Gran Canaria3092130%81.086.1-5.1
16 Basket Zaragoza3092130%86.992.8-5.8
17 MoraBanc Andorra3092130%86.893.2-6.4
18 Granada3162519%82.690.7-8.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bilbao2416202888
Real Madrid2222221682
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