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Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Projected 109-113
Projected total 222.5
Scheduled
Position#12
Record6-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game113.3
Denver Nuggets
USA
Vs
37%
63%
■ DEN 37%■ BOS 63%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
5.3/10
Around normal
Boston Celtics
USA
Position#3
Record10-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.2
Allowed / game103.1
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Boston Celtics
18 Nov 2026
DEN v BOS
upcoming
25 Feb 2026
DEN103
BOS84
07 Jan 2025
DEN106
BOS118
07 Mar 2024
DEN115
BOS109
01 Jan 2023
DEN123
BOS111
20 Mar 2022
DEN104
BOS124
11 Apr 2021
DEN87
BOS105
22 Nov 2019
DEN96
BOS92
05 Nov 2018
DEN115
BOS107
29 Jan 2018
DEN110
BOS111
10 Mar 2017
DEN119
BOS99
21 Feb 2016
DEN101
BOS121
23 Jan 2015
DEN99
BOS100
07 Jan 2014
DEN129
BOS98
19 Feb 2013
DEN97
BOS90
17 Mar 2012
DEN98
BOS91
24 Feb 2011
DEN89
BOS75
21 Feb 2010
DEN114
BOS105
23 Feb 2009
DEN76
BOS114
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Denver Nuggets host Boston Celtics on 18 November 2026 in the NBA, with the Celtics the clear favourite as the model gives them a 63% chance of victory versus the Nuggets' 37%; the projected score is 109-113 and the total is 222.5 points, with a 6% chance of overtime. Denver is 6-4 this season, averaging 114.5 points and allowing 113.3, and sits 12th in the league, while at home they are 2-2, scoring 123.2 and conceding 124.0; their last five games were 3-2. Boston is 10-2 overall, 114.2 points for and 103.1 against, and 2nd in the standings, with a 5-2 road record of 110.1 points for and 99.7 against, and a perfect 5-0 run in their last five. The teams are even in head-to-head history, 5-5, though Denver last beat Boston 103-84 on 25 February 2026. The Celtics' recent wins over Toronto, Philadelphia and Milwaukee show a sharp offensive rhythm, while Denver's recent victory over Memphis and win over Indiana hint at resilience; the game will hinge on Boston's ability to maintain their dominant defence against a Nuggets squad that has struggled at home.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
37.3%fair 2.68
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics win
62.7%fair 1.60
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 113
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 113
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 113
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 113
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 113
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 113
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 113
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 113
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 113
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#9
W
123-118
123
118
+5
114avg 113
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
35-24
30-28
29-38
29-28
227.8Avg total
114.5Scored
113.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (6)108.7106.2214.8+2.567%
Last 10 (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Last 5 (5)115.0111.4226.4+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)115.0113.2228.2+1.850%
vs Similar (14)113.9114.5228.4-0.657%
vs Weaker (12)128.2117.0245.2+11.292%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
134-99
134
99
+35
127avg 107
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
125-124 OT
125
124
+1
119avg 107
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
125-111
125
111
+14
118avg 107
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
108-97
108
97
+11
103avg 107
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
93-109
93
109
-16
78avg 107
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
109-102
109
102
+7
102avg 107
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
119-80
119
80
+39
123avg 107
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
117-97
117
97
+20
109avg 107
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
123-101
123
101
+22
117avg 107
A11/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
98-93
98
93
+5
95avg 107
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-21
33-33
39-21
29-24
26-31
30-30
30-21
31-35
44-25
34-24
21-25
26-37
24-23
31-27
22-24
31-23
29-29
21-28
23-25
20-27
28-14
34-27
25-38
22-23
40-20
30-19
26-18
23-23
25-27
33-18
33-29
26-23
30-23
32-28
29-31
32-19
29-38
25-23
21-19
23-13
216.4Avg total
115.1Scored
101.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)114.2103.1217.3+11.283%
Season at home (5)120.0107.8227.8+12.2100%
Season away (7)110.199.7209.9+10.471%
Last 10 (10)115.1101.3216.4+13.890%
Last 5 (5)113.294.6207.8+18.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)109.7108.7218.3+1.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)115.6104.3219.9+11.279%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%0%1751%1802%1853%1904%1956%2008%2059%21011%21511%22011%2259%2307%2356%2404%2453%2502%2551%2601%2650%2700%275
0%1752%1854%1958%20511%21511%2257%2354%2452%2551%2650%275
Pythia expects about 222 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 215-219 (11%).
Over/Under 220
Over 220
54.4%
Under 220
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225
Over 225
43.4%
Under 225
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230
Over 230
33.1%
Under 230
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Denver Nuggets total 109
Over 109
49.7%
Under 109
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denver Nuggets total 113
Over 113
36.3%
Under 113
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denver Nuggets total 117
Over 117
24.6%
Under 117
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Celtics total 107.5
Over 107.5
69.1%
Under 107.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Celtics total 111.5
Over 111.5
56.3%
Under 111.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boston Celtics total 115.5
Over 115.5
42.8%
Under 115.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%10%0%-421%-391%-361%-332%-303%-273%-245%-215%-187%-158%-128%-910%-68%-35%+07%+37%+66%+94%+123%+152%+181%+211%+241%+270%+30
0%-421%-362%-303%-245%-188%-1210%-65%+07%+64%+122%+181%+240%+30
Margin from Denver Nuggets's side (positive = Denver Nuggets win). Pythia's expected margin is -4.3; Denver Nuggets win by 1+ in 33% of simulations.
Spread Denver Nuggets -3
DEN -3
31.2%
BOS +3
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
BOS
No market prices yet.
Spread Denver Nuggets 0
DEN 0
37.3%
BOS 0
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
BOS
No market prices yet.
Spread Denver Nuggets +3
DEN +3
43.4%
BOS -3
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
BOS
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +5.7+5.7Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +5.7+5.7Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +1.8+1.8Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
Denver NuggetsBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#9
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A12/11
NBA
114.9Avg total
58.8Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.457.9118.3+2.553%-
Last 30 at home (17)62.361.1123.4+1.241%-
Last 30 away (13)57.953.7111.6+4.269%-
Last 10 (10)58.856.1114.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)59.854.4114.2+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)57.553.8111.2+3.875%-
vs Similar (14)58.656.8115.4+1.850%-
vs Weaker (12)63.560.5124.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
66-54
66
54
+12
H26/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H27/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
78-49
78
49
+29
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A01/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A03/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
62-41
62
41
+21
H05/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
70-39
70
39
+31
A07/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
58-45
58
45
+13
A09/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
62-51
62
51
+11
A11/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
54-61
54
61
-7
A12/11
NBA
111.9Avg total
61.1Scored
50.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.252.0111.1+7.260%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.953.3112.2+5.753%-
Last 30 away (15)59.450.7110.1+8.767%-
Last 10 (10)61.150.8111.9+10.370%-
Last 5 (5)61.247.4108.6+13.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)54.753.2107.8+1.533%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)60.351.7112.0+8.667%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.031.2
56.7%
54.0%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.410.1
32.2%
35.1%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.919.6
78.7%
77.2%19.6
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 110.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.123.6
53.5%
54.0%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.215.0
34.7%
35.1%45.0
🏀 Free throws24.118.1
75.1%
77.2%18.1
They take 87.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLWWLWL
Boston Celtics
WWWWWLWWWW
#12
League position
#3
-1.6
Net rating
+4.2
110.1
Offensive rating
109.8
111.6
Defensive rating
105.6
53.6%
Effective FG%
52.8%
54.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.9%
11.1%
Turnover %
13.4%
16.8%
Off. rebound %
24.9%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.28
32.2%
3-point %
34.7%
65.9%
Assist %
65.3%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence110.1 · 109.8Defence111.6 · 105.6Shooting53.6% · 52.8%3-point %32.2% · 34.7%Ball care11.1% · 13.4%Off. rebounds16.8% · 24.9%Free throws0.29 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Denver Nuggets wins
5
Boston Celtics wins
DateGameScore
26/02/26Denver Nuggets v Boston Celtics103-84
08/01/26Boston Celtics v Denver Nuggets110-114
02/03/25Boston Celtics v Denver Nuggets110-103
08/01/25Denver Nuggets v Boston Celtics106-118
08/03/24Denver Nuggets v Boston Celtics115-109
20/01/24Boston Celtics v Denver Nuggets100-102
02/01/23Denver Nuggets v Boston Celtics123-111
12/11/22Boston Celtics v Denver Nuggets131-112
21/03/22Denver Nuggets v Boston Celtics104-124
12/02/22Boston Celtics v Denver Nuggets108-102
Denver Nuggetslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-118
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
Boston Celticslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AToronto Raptors98-93
11/11/26APhiladelphia 76ers123-101
09/11/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-97
07/11/26ACharlotte Hornets119-80
05/11/26HMilwaukee Bucks109-102
03/11/26AHouston Rockets93-109
01/11/26AOrlando Magic108-97
30/10/26HChicago Bulls125-111
27/10/26HBrooklyn Nets125-124 OT
26/10/26HChicago Bulls134-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW60%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayWWWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game114.5123.2108.7
Allowed / game113.3124.0106.2
Point differential+1.2-0.8+2.5
Avg total227.8247.2214.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %10%25%0%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %83%100%71%
Points / game114.2120.0110.1
Allowed / game103.1107.899.7
Point differential+11.2+12.2+10.4
Avg total217.3227.8209.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%40%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %8%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
5 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
6 Minnesota Timberwolves129375%119.3105.9+13.4
7 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
8 Detroit Pistons118373%115.5107.8+7.7
9 Memphis Grizzlies128467%119.9111.8+8.1
10 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
11 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
12 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
13 Dallas Mavericks127558%113.2112.2+1.0
14 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
15 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
16 Miami Heat126650%117.2120.1-2.9
17 Cleveland Cavaliers136746%116.8115.8+1.0
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers135838%111.2113.2-2.1
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans134931%116.5125.6-9.2
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
27 Chicago Bulls112918%114.4127.7-13.4
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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