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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 01 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 02:30
Scheduled
Position#4
Record7-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game121.3
Allowed / game110.9
vs
Position#19
Record5-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game122.7
Allowed / game121.9
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Miami Heat
28 Feb 2027
HOU v MIA
upcoming
21 Mar 2026
HOU123
MIA122
29 Dec 2024
HOU100
MIA104
05 Apr 2024
HOU104
MIA119
20 Oct 2023
HOU110
MIA104
15 Dec 2022
HOU108
MIA111
31 Dec 2021
HOU110
MIA120
07 Oct 2021
HOU106
MIA113
11 Feb 2021
HOU94
MIA101
27 Nov 2019
HOU117
MIA108
28 Feb 2019
HOU121
MIA118
22 Jan 2018
HOU99
MIA90
15 Feb 2017
HOU109
MIA117
02 Feb 2016
HOU115
MIA102
17 Oct 2015
HOU100
MIA105
03 Jan 2015
HOU115
MIA79
04 Mar 2014
HOU106
MIA103
12 Nov 2012
HOU110
MIA113
29 Dec 2010
HOU119
MIA125
15 Jan 2010
HOU106
MIA115
17 Jan 2009
HOU93
MIA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Houston Rockets
5.4out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 115.1
119.6▲ 4.5
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 110.1
110.0▼ 0.1
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 57%
59%▲ 2%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 26.3
27.2▲ 0.9
🔥 Form · Miami Heat
4.5out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 123.5
120.8▼ 2.7
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 122.8
119.6▼ 3.2
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 59%
55%▼ 5%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 29.8
27.0▼ 2.8
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
78-98
78
98
-20
H02/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
135-117
135
117
+18
A09/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
115-132
115
132
-17
H11/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
W
116-89
116
89
+27
H16/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
128-110
128
110
+18
H22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
W
114-110
114
110
+4
A24/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
121-114
121
114
+7
A25/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
120-110
120
110
+10
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#27
W
132-100
132
100
+32
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
111-116
111
116
-5
A31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-23
13-26
24-22
23-27
27-19
38-26
34-35
36-37
27-28
24-30
34-37
30-37
33-15
21-32
25-22
37-20
32-26
38-12
30-38
28-34
32-27
29-32
24-22
29-29
30-26
29-22
33-33
29-33
32-35
31-31
28-19
29-25
23-21
34-14
38-34
37-31
20-27
31-17
33-32
27-40
226.6Avg total
117.0Scored
109.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)121.3110.9232.2+10.478%
Season at home (4)119.8110.2230.0+9.575%
Season away (5)122.6111.4234.0+11.280%
Last 10 (10)117.0109.6226.6+7.470%
Last 5 (5)119.6110.0229.6+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)118.6113.4232.0+5.260%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)116.6108.2224.8+8.468%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
128-118
128
118
+10
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
124-125
124
125
-1
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
144-128
144
128
+16
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
115-136
115
136
-21
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
106-131
106
131
-25
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
111-128
111
128
-17
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
109-113
109
113
-4
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
129-117
129
117
+12
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
145-125
145
125
+20
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-36
40-28
20-32
35-22
23-24
33-36
28-31
40-34
35-29
34-37
43-37
32-25
36-34
29-36
30-38
20-28
32-34
27-35
22-30
25-32
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
245.7Avg total
122.1Scored
123.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)122.7121.9244.6+0.845%
Season at home (7)123.9124.0247.9-0.143%
Season away (4)120.8118.2239.0+2.550%
Last 10 (10)122.1123.6245.7-1.540%
Last 5 (5)120.8119.6240.4+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)120.0124.9244.9-4.938%
vs Similar (16)122.3124.2246.6-1.938%
vs Weaker (6)130.3122.8253.2+7.567%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +3.3+3.3
Houston RocketsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H02/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
65-45
65
45
+20
A09/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
51-58
51
58
-7
H11/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#18
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H16/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
70-38
70
38
+32
H22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
W
61-59
61
59
+2
A24/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
59-48
59
48
+11
A25/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
L
63-66
63
66
-3
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#27
W
57-35
57
35
+22
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBA
105.1Avg total
56.2Scored
48.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.452.1109.5+5.367%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.854.1113.9+5.669%-
Last 30 away (14)54.849.8104.6+5.064%-
Last 10 (10)56.248.9105.1+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)58.250.4108.6+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)59.456.6116.0+2.860%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)57.051.2108.2+5.868%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
73-64
73
64
+9
H08/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H11/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
69-66
69
66
+3
H14/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#11
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A16/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#9
L
59-69
59
69
-10
H21/10
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#6
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
125.2Avg total
62.2Scored
63.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.462.6124.9-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (17)63.162.6125.6+0.553%-
Last 30 away (13)61.562.5124.0-1.138%-
Last 10 (10)62.263.0125.2-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)60.060.2120.2-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)61.963.6125.5-1.838%-
vs Similar (16)59.962.6122.5-2.644%-
vs Weaker (6)69.561.2130.7+8.367%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 110.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.027.7
53.3%
54.0%55.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.411.1
33.2%
34.9%33.3
🏀 Free throws28.322.2
78.4%
76.2%22.2
They take 85.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 120.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.630.2
56.3%
54.0%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.713.6
34.3%
34.9%40.8
🏀 Free throws26.619.3
72.6%
76.2%19.3
They take 93.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
LWWWWWWLWL
Miami Heat
WWLLLLLWLW
#4
League position
#19
+1.8
Net rating
-1.0
109.3
Offensive rating
105.1
107.5
Defensive rating
106.1
51.9%
Effective FG%
54.2%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
55.2%
14.5%
Turnover %
12.7%
30.2%
Off. rebound %
10.7%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.29
33.2%
3-point %
34.3%
61.3%
Assist %
66.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence109.3 · 105.1Defence107.5 · 106.1Shooting51.9% · 54.2%3-point %33.2% · 34.3%Ball care14.5% · 12.7%Off. rebounds30.2% · 10.7%Free throws0.33 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Houston Rockets wins
7
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26ADallas Mavericks111-116
29/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks132-100
27/10/26HAtlanta Hawks120-110
25/10/26AAtlanta Hawks121-114
24/10/26ASan Antonio Spurs114-110
22/10/26HDallas Mavericks128-110
16/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder116-89
11/10/26HDallas Mavericks115-132
09/10/26ADallas Mavericks135-117
02/05/26HLos Angeles Lakers78-98
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
21/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves106-131
16/10/26AOrlando Magic115-136
14/10/26HBrooklyn Nets144-128
11/10/26HMinnesota Timberwolves124-125
08/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans128-118

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL78%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %78%75%80%
Points / game121.3119.8122.6
Allowed / game110.9110.2111.4
Point differential+10.4+9.5+11.2
Avg total232.2230.0234.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%75%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW45%
HomeWLLLW43%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1174
Win %45%43%50%
Points / game122.7123.9120.8
Allowed / game121.9124.0118.2
Point differential+0.8-0.1+2.5
Avg total244.6247.9239.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%43%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics98189%123.4110.0+13.4
2 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Atlanta Hawks117464%120.7115.7+5.0
7 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
8 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
9 Minnesota Timberwolves127558%118.8112.4+6.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Orlando Magic95456%116.0117.8-1.8
12 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
13 Toronto Raptors105550%119.6111.5+8.1
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Washington Wizards105550%111.6111.3+0.3
16 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
17 Dallas Mavericks105550%114.3115.7-1.4
18 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
19 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
20 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
21 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
22 Charlotte Hornets104640%97.0108.0-11.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
26 Indiana Pacers103730%117.9119.2-1.3
27 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
28 New York Knicks113827%106.5115.2-8.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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