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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 01 Mar 2019
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 121-118
33-32 22-37 31-29 35-20
Position#5
Record36-25
FormLLWWW
Points / game113.3
Allowed / game111.1
vs
Position#17
Record27-33
FormWLLLW
Points / game105.5
Allowed / game106.5
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Miami Heat
28 Feb 2027
HOU v MIA
upcoming
21 Mar 2026
HOU123
MIA122
29 Dec 2024
HOU100
MIA104
05 Apr 2024
HOU104
MIA119
15 Dec 2022
HOU108
MIA111
31 Dec 2021
HOU110
MIA120
11 Feb 2021
HOU94
MIA101
27 Nov 2019
HOU117
MIA108
28 Feb 2019
HOU121
MIA118
22 Jan 2018
HOU99
MIA90
15 Feb 2017
HOU109
MIA117
02 Feb 2016
HOU115
MIA102
03 Jan 2015
HOU115
MIA79
04 Mar 2014
HOU106
MIA103
12 Nov 2012
HOU110
MIA113
29 Dec 2010
HOU119
MIA125
15 Jan 2010
HOU106
MIA115
17 Jan 2009
HOU93
MIA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#9
W
125-98
125
98
+27
113avg 99
A03/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
118-110
118
110
+8
107avg 99
A05/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
127-101
127
101
+26
108avg 99
A07/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
112-117
112
117
-5
96avg 99
H10/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
120-104
120
104
+16
112avg 99
H12/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
111-121
111
121
-10
93avg 99
A14/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
L
106-111
106
111
-5
92avg 99
A22/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
118-112
118
112
+6
112avg 99
A24/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
W
119-111
119
111
+8
105avg 99
H26/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
118-113
118
113
+5
104avg 99
A28/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-27
32-23
28-19
34-29
32-28
31-29
31-23
24-30
32-28
44-17
28-29
23-27
28-25
42-23
20-42
22-27
25-22
39-28
28-28
28-26
29-28
29-24
26-35
27-34
32-22
26-30
32-31
16-28
35-20
26-34
31-32
26-26
39-28
21-32
35-25
24-26
41-33
21-36
28-25
28-19
227.2Avg total
117.4Scored
109.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (61)113.3111.1224.4+2.259%
Season at home (30)116.7112.2228.9+4.670%
Season away (31)109.9110.1220.0-0.148%
Last 10 (10)117.4109.8227.2+7.670%
Last 5 (5)114.4113.6228.0+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)109.0116.0225.0-7.00%
vs Similar (12)116.7115.2231.9+1.467%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)118.5112.2230.7+6.471%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#13
L
88-95
88
95
-7
84avg 98
H03/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
118-108
118
108
+10
112avg 98
A06/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
L
96-102
96
102
-6
88avg 98
A09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
118-120
118
120
-2
110avg 98
A11/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
L
87-103
87
103
-16
80avg 98
A12/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
112-101
112
101
+11
112avg 98
A14/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
102-106
102
106
-4
91avg 98
A22/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
L
96-119
96
119
-23
78avg 98
H24/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
L
121-124
121
124
-3
114avg 98
H26/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
126-125
126
125
+1
120avg 98
H28/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-21
27-32
23-31
11-11
34-30
28-25
32-24
24-29
28-17
31-33
24-25
13-27
34-24
25-30
23-36
36-30
27-35
22-19
21-29
17-20
29-25
28-33
32-16
23-27
21-29
29-28
25-16
27-33
29-20
17-34
30-30
20-35
29-23
34-29
24-32
34-40
32-22
42-37
26-33
26-33
216.7Avg total
106.4Scored
110.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)105.5106.5212.0-1.045%
Season at home (30)105.3107.5212.8-2.240%
Season away (30)105.6105.5211.2+0.150%
Last 10 (10)106.4110.3216.7-3.930%
Last 5 (5)111.4115.0226.4-3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)106.0109.7215.7-3.743%
vs Similar (15)102.5105.7208.2-3.133%
vs Weaker (8)106.2101.9208.1+4.462%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.3+6.3Q1: +4.4+4.4Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -5.4-5.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +6.3+6.3Q1: +4.4+4.4Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -1.2-1.2Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -5.4-5.4
Houston RocketsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#9
W
63-50
63
50
+13
A03/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
63-57
63
57
+6
A05/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
76-45
76
45
+31
A07/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
70-48
70
48
+22
H10/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
64-50
64
50
+14
H12/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A14/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A22/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
61-54
61
54
+7
A24/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
D
60-60
60
60
+0
H26/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
L
62-69
62
69
-7
A28/02
NBA
117.2Avg total
63.5Scored
53.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.556.4116.0+3.160%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.754.5114.2+5.262%-
Last 30 away (14)59.458.6118.0+0.757%-
Last 10 (10)63.553.7117.2+9.880%-
Last 5 (5)59.857.4117.2+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)60.054.0114.0+6.0100%-
vs Similar (12)58.759.0117.7-0.350%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)60.154.8114.9+5.465%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
54-53
54
53
+1
H03/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
62-55
62
55
+7
A06/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A11/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
L
49-54
49
54
-5
A12/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A14/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A22/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
L
46-54
46
54
-8
H24/02
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
63-52
63
52
+11
H26/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H28/02
NBA
111.9Avg total
57.3Scored
54.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.652.9106.5+0.747%-
Last 30 at home (15)55.652.9108.5+2.760%-
Last 30 away (15)51.552.9104.4-1.333%-
Last 10 (10)57.354.6111.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)58.056.0114.0+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)54.951.0105.9+3.957%-
vs Similar (15)53.755.1108.9-1.447%-
vs Weaker (8)52.150.4102.5+1.838%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 117.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers48.6 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.624.6
55.2%
51.7%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.316.2
35.0%
35.4%48.6
🏀 Free throws23.119.6
84.8%
76.6%19.6
They take 90.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 46.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.630.3
54.5%
51.7%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.010.6
34.2%
35.4%31.8
🏀 Free throws19.914.0
70.4%
76.6%14.0
They take 86.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
WWWLLWLWWW
Miami Heat
WLLLWLLLWL
#5
League position
#17
+7.4
Net rating
-3.9
114.1
Offensive rating
106.1
106.7
Defensive rating
110.0
53.8%
Effective FG%
53.3%
53.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
11.4%
Turnover %
15.2%
21.7%
Off. rebound %
25.1%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.23
35.0%
3-point %
34.2%
52.2%
Assist %
58.7%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence114.1 · 106.1Defence106.7 · 110.0Shooting53.8% · 53.3%3-point %35.0% · 34.2%Ball care11.4% · 15.2%Off. rebounds21.7% · 25.1%Free throws0.25 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Houston Rockets wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/19ACharlotte Hornets118-113
26/02/19HAtlanta Hawks119-111
24/02/19AGolden State Warriors118-112
22/02/19ALos Angeles Lakers106-111
14/02/19AMinnesota Timberwolves111-121
12/02/19HDallas Mavericks120-104
10/02/19HOklahoma City Thunder112-117
07/02/19ASacramento Kings127-101
05/02/19APhoenix Suns118-110
03/02/19AUtah Jazz125-98
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/19HGolden State Warriors126-125
26/02/19HPhoenix Suns121-124
24/02/19HDetroit Pistons96-119
22/02/19APhiladelphia 76ers102-106
14/02/19ADallas Mavericks112-101
12/02/19ADenver Nuggets87-103
11/02/19AGolden State Warriors118-120
09/02/19ASacramento Kings96-102
06/02/19APortland Trail Blazers118-108
03/02/19HIndiana Pacers88-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW59%
HomeWLLWW70%
AwayWLLWW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games613031
Win %59%70%48%
Points / game113.3116.7109.9
Allowed / game111.1112.2110.1
Point differential+2.2+4.6-0.1
Avg total224.4228.9220.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%40%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (20)67% (9)45% (11)
Overtime %8%7%10%
Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW45%
HomeLLLLW40%
AwayLLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games603030
Win %45%40%50%
Points / game105.5105.3105.6
Allowed / game106.5107.5105.5
Point differential-1.1-2.2+0.1
Avg total212.0212.8211.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%10%27%
Close games (≤5 pts) won42% (19)50% (10)33% (9)
Overtime %2%0%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks61471477%117.4107.8+9.5
2 Toronto Raptors62451773%114.2108.7+5.5
3 Denver Nuggets60421870%112.3106.9+5.4
4 Golden State Warriors62431969%118.6112.0+6.5
5 Indiana Pacers63412265%108.7103.6+5.1
6 Philadelphia 76ers61392264%115.7112.3+3.4
7 Oklahoma City Thunder60382263%115.9111.1+4.8
8 Portland Trail Blazers61382362%113.5109.9+3.6
9 Boston Celtics62372560%112.2106.8+5.4
10 Houston Rockets61362559%113.3111.1+2.2
11 Utah Jazz60342657%110.1106.7+3.4
12 San Antonio Spurs63342954%112.0111.3+0.6
13 Los Angeles Clippers63342954%113.9113.7+0.1
14 Sacramento Kings61313051%114.0115.2-1.3
15 Brooklyn Nets63323151%112.0112.5-0.5
16 Los Angeles Lakers61303149%112.4113.6-1.2
17 Detroit Pistons60293148%107.0108.1-1.1
18 Minnesota Timberwolves62293347%112.4112.4+0.0
19 Orlando Magic63293446%105.9106.6-0.7
20 Charlotte Hornets61283346%111.1111.6-0.6
21 Miami Heat60273345%105.5106.5-1.1
22 Dallas Mavericks61273444%108.7109.2-0.5
23 New Orleans Pelicans63273643%115.7115.1+0.6
24 Washington Wizards61253641%114.0117.0-3.0
25 Memphis Grizzlies63243938%101.0104.1-3.1
26 Atlanta Hawks62214134%111.3118.3-7.0
27 Chicago Bulls62174527%103.8111.7-7.9
28 Cleveland Cavaliers62154724%103.7113.4-9.7
29 New York Knicks62134921%105.9114.1-8.1
30 Phoenix Suns62125019%106.2116.2-10.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Houston Rockets33223135121
Miami Heat32372920118
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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